Really?
From: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1280-GDP-In-Pictures-The-Truth.html
Posted on 08/02/2009 6:17:25 AM PDT by Notary Sojac
IOW, people with jobs that buy stuff?
Really?
From: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1280-GDP-In-Pictures-The-Truth.html
Good luck with that Larry...
With the federal printing presses running full speed ahead the stock market is just a hedge on the coming inflation. It isn’t about the economy doing well.
” IOW, people with jobs that buy stuff? “
Yeah - them...
“Customers?? We don’t need no steenkin’ customers!!”
There is almost no chance of a meaningful recovery in the next few quarters. Most people still don't understand that this is not your typical recession that can be fixed by inventory correction. This is a debt crisis and the historical average recovery time is more than 20 years. Furthermore, Obama has made all the wrong moves up until this point and has clear ownership of the massive spending that will take us into the next phase of the crisis. Unless we wise up very quickly (very little chance of that), we are headed into a fiscal and dollar crisis that will be extremely painful for everyone. The dollar index today is at the edge of the cliff at the lowest level for 10 months.
Besides, you Powerline guys have a terrible economic forecasting record. Trust me you are wrong again - you don't need to worry about Obama's re-election. (John Lewis)
I really don't understand how we can escape the consequences of Obama's ongoing socialist assault on our free-market economy. It's strangely miraculous that when Obama's poll numbers begin tanking, the economy is suddenly in active recovery.
Please.
A few comments: if you track from start of WWII (say Jan 42) thru mid-1960's you see the period of strong economic growth at a 10x level by measuring the DJIA. From mid-60's thru early 1980's it was a stagnant market with virtually no growth. When Reaganomics entered in 1982/3, you see another 10x growth period with the steepest rise for approx 20 years.
With a brief drop at 9/11/01, the rise continued modestly until 10/08, one month before the election.
Hmmm...
Great post
This is truly a “BULL” market alright. Just wait until the effects of what damage the Democrats have done to this country begins showing up in the markets.
It will drop like the Hindenburg in a matter of hours. But these Liberals are so busy spinning their agenda, they forget about what happened last October and how it happened. Only now, there far more deadly economic factors swirling around out there that have yet to hit the ground. And they WILL like Autumn leaves, sooner than they think.
They say bull markets climb a wall of worry, and I’m really worried. My prediction: A “W” shaped recession... Obama’s spending and taxing, combined with an increasing reluctance in the bond market to keep eating Treasuries and incipient inflation, will lead to higher interest rates.
Additional comment: the mid-60’s is when we entered into the “Great Society”...a period of government spending on social programs that was unparalleled...until now. Look at the results in terms of the stock market...poor!
I don't see how "the powers that be" can prop up a stock market for any long period of time. How would they do that?
You may be right. I probably should have concentrated on Kudlow’s addiction to cheap, unsecured credit, which over the last fifteen years has done far more damage to America than cocaine ever could.
In our time, government has proceeded to effectively socialize industries, debase the currency through artificial credit expansion, and subsidize personal debt at the expense of savings and investment. Massive and unprecedented liabilities (Social Security and Medicare) loom in our immediate future, with no funding source provided. New liabilities, in the form of cap-and-trade and public health care would add trillions of dollars to the already-insurmountable mountain that stands before us.
The stock market is driven by short-term imperatives and influences, whose vision extends no further than the end of the next quarter. It is foolish to mistake an equity price boom on Wall Street for fundamental economic vitality. Kudlow admits as much by hedging his enthusiasm with warnings about the future direction of US economic policy, yet he still misses the importance of the greater sea change that has occurred in the economy as a whole: we face unprecedented levels of US debt and of taxation in a globalized marketplace where the dollar's value has nowhere to go but down.
Our native industries are aging and largely noncompetitive. The ones that are competitive (insurance, pharmaceutical, health care) are presently under assault from our own government. We consume far more than we produce and import more than we export. Our social infrastructure is cracking under the strain of unfunded mandates and the service demands of an increasingly non-productive underclass. The tax burden to support a gargantuan government falls on fewer and fewer producers each year, and yet, economists cannot see the forest for the trees.
They beat their fists upon the posts and still insist there are no ghosts.
The market runup of the "oughts" was dependent upon taking on ever and ever more consumer debt in order to finance current consumption.
It was going to deflate regardless of who was elected. The difference would be that if we had a conservative in office (rather than a Democrat or Republican) we would let poorly managed businesses fail rather than propping them up with tax money and government debt.
The bankers and politicians are beyond hope - I can only hope that consumers get burned enough that they start saving for what they want, rather than borrowing for it.
This is what brought the Soviet Union down. And if you look back a little further, it's what cost Louis XVI his head, too.
The difference between Louis XVI and Barack Obama is that Louis had a nicer house. And he occasionally suffered from self-doubt.
If any FReepers own stock in anything other than McDonalds or Wal-Mart, they should dump it. This bull market is BULL$hit!!
They need to seriously get out of hedge funding.
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