I agree with you, but therefore I’m encouraged: Rasmussen now appears, as I have suspected, to be a “leading” polling organization, meaning they seem to pick up trends earlier. Ras has had O at 50 or below for some time, and as low as 47. So what is happening is that the other pollsters are just now showing what Ras has had for some time.
Rasmussen polls likely voters. Other polls measure all adults, meaning they assume the youths that voted for Obama will come out for the Dems in 2010.
I think likely voters, at this time, are the ones paying attention to what’s going on.