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To: SandWMan

Let’s go more to the point: CFR (case fatality rate) for H1N1 is probably around 0.5%. There was a recent estimate here of 1%, but with possible underreporting of total cases, we’re probably back down to 0.5%.

This makes H1N1 roughly 5 times more deadly than the typical seasonal flu. Aside from that, we have no herd immunity, so we’re looking at probable widespread infection in the US come flu season.

If we do absolutely nothing on vaccine, 1/3rd of US population infected over the next two years (a reasonable estimate given past history of spread of new viruses such as this one) would produce around 500,000 deaths. This would be roughly 160 times as many people as died in 9/11. Of course, these would be slow, rolling, less noticeable deaths over the course of a couple of years, instead of one sudden and dramatic event.

That’s NEVER going to happen, since we’re looking at widespread vaccination that will minimize the impact of this bug. But a statement that this flu is “simply no worse than the regular flu” is asininely wrong.


32 posted on 08/25/2009 9:14:42 AM PDT by john in springfield (One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe such things.No ordinary man could be such a fool.)
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To: john in springfield

>>Aside from that, we have no herd immunity,<<

Um, look up the reason why seniors are low on the priority list. “The experts” state that seniors have immunity to one component of this flu, because most likely, they already had that part.

This is a manufactured crisis.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the reason why they won’t close schools is because, IF and I mean if, it does go to pandemic, they don’t want to close the borders.


35 posted on 08/25/2009 9:21:02 AM PDT by netmilsmom (Psalm 109:8 - Let his days be few; and let another take his office)
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