Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

NY Slimes ^ | 8-24-09 | MICHAEL LYNCH

[WOBBLY BOB]

REMEMBER “peak oil”? It’s the theory that geological scarcity will at some point make it impossible for global petroleum production to avoid falling, heralding the end of the oil age and, potentially, economic catastrophe. Well, just when we thought that the collapse in oil prices since last summer had put an end to such talk, along comes Fatih Birol, the top economist at the International Energy Agency, to insist that we’ll reach the peak moment in 10 years, a decade sooner than most previous predictions (although a few ardent pessimists believe the moment of no return has already come and gone).

[WOBBLY BOB]

Michael Lynch, the former director for Asian energy and security at the Center for International Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is an energy consultant.

[netmilsmom]

I don’t believe in peak oil.

[ClearCase_guy]

I recently purchased an old paperback by Isaac Asimov "More Tales of the Black Widowers", a collection of mystery short stories. One of the stories casually mentioned a physicist working on fusion energy and being concerned that it wouldn't be developed "in time" because the data was showing that all the world's oil would be gone by 2000.

The book was published in 1975. Asimov was no dummy, but apparently anyone can get sucked into the silly belief that "it's running out".

[omega4179]

and of course NO advances in technology will occur in 10 years

[McGruff]

I use Mobil 1 (synthetic oil).

[what's up]

The Peak Oil mongers are on the same wavelength as the global warming mongers.

[Uncle Ike]

” The book was published in 1975. Asimov was no dummy, but apparently anyone can get sucked into the silly belief that “it’s running out”. “

Agree that Asimov was no dummy - in some areas.. But he was a dyed-in-the-wool believer in the “Population Bomb” hooey from the 60’s and 70’s...

Even genius has its foibles....

[WOBBLY BOB]

not if environmentalist/greenie moonbats have their way

[Pearls Before Swine]

I don’t believe in peak oil.

I do. There's lots of oil still out there, but the balance between discovery, development, decline of existing fields, and restrictions (legal and practical) on expanding the refining and distribution networks mean that it is very difficult to keep expanding the rate at which it can be delivered. "Peak oil" doesn't mean we are running out of oil, but we are running out of our ability to expand the rate at which we extract, process, and deliver it. That's a problem, because growing economies need growing amounts of energy.

When demand grows and supply doesn't, energy gets much more expensive. As a concrete number, the demand for oil from the peak at about $150 per barrel to last year's trough of around $40, fell about 5 to 7%. So when demand increases by a like amount, or a bit more, oil prices will go back up (and I'm not including any dollar depreciation issues either).

[Old Professer]

If AGW fell off the radar tomorrow morning the very same people driving forward with alternative energy plans and carbon tax schemes stuffed in the glovebox would just switch gears with a simple snick of the shift stick and bash down on the horn button that much louder.

[Terpfen]

"Peak oil" doesn't mean we are running out of oil, but we are running out of our ability to expand the rate at which we extract, process, and deliver it.

Good thing we're not.

[CommerceComet]

The Malthusians will always be with us, no matter how many times their theories are disproven.

[Uncle Miltie]

I used Mobil 1 and increased my maximum mileage from 16 to 19 MPG in my 2004 Tundra.

Stunning.

[glorgau]

We’ve been 15 years away from Peak Oil for the last 100 years.

[WOBBLY BOB]

not to worry, we only have 4 months to act on Gorebull Warming.

[businessprofessor]

The key point is restrictions, primarily political and originating here. Almost everyone on the left wants to restrict conventional energy development. Carbon taxes will be leavied heavily on conventional energy development, increasing its cost so that it becomes much less attractive. Oil is only half the problem. Carbon taxes will curtail all of the other activities necessary to create energy products from crude.

Since there are no practical alternatives to conventional energy now (on a large replacement scale), I see energy disaster looming here, perhaps not in other countries.

[PGR88]

It’s summertime, so that article must have slipped by the NY Times editors/thought police.

[Pearls Before Swine]

The key point is restrictions, primarily political and originating here.

I'm not sure if it is the key point, but it certainly makes things worse, and worse in this country, by bringing the date of reckoning (rising demand hitting a relatively inelastic supply) closer.

[wolf78]

The book was published in 1975. Asimov was no dummy, but apparently anyone can get sucked into the silly belief that "it's running out".

The idea that oil is "running out" is a sign of an economically illiterate mind. Peak oil in an economic sense doesn't mean that that suddenly all the oil is gone (we will still have oil a hundred years from now), it means that it's becoming so expensive that alternatives gain a competitive advantage. E.g.: When gas hit $4.00, the Amish began to replace their generators with windmills and solar panels. In that sense, peak oil is a harsh reality, especially given that a fully developed China and India would add five times the USA to global demand.