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It’s very early. Half of the races are up in the air at this point.

I’ll give my take.

RAT Seats, let’s start with VA And NJ which are less than 2 months away.

Virginia: Likely R

The rat’s desperate attacks have failed to dent the Republican’s lead in the polls.

New Jersey: Lean R.

The suspected RINO leads. But it’s NJ where GOP leads tend to evaporate on election day. But not this time I don’t think. I predict Corine is going down.

Arkansas: Safe D

Beebe (who has supported some tax cuts but also wasting more money on public schools) doesn’t even have an opponent yet (thanks Huck). Most Republicans are focusing on the suddenly vulnerable rat Senator Lincoln. Beebe’ll crush some sac lamb.

Colorado: Lean/Likely R

Ritter is disaster. Scott McInnis will beat him.

Illinois: Tossup/Lean D

The rat primary is a classic as in 1976. Would the combine prefer RINO Dillard to Quinn? I give slight edge to the rats in any of the potential mathcups. Dillard must not win the GOP primary.

Iowa: Tossup

I forget about Culver, he is unpopular. Crowded GOP field.

Maryland: Lean/Likely D

I don’t think O’Malley is beloved. Paging Bob Ehrlich, he’s the only Republican who can beat him. He doesn’t seem likely to run.

Massachusetts: Tossup

3-way race. Newly minted indie Tim Cahill is a better choice than the 2 worthless RINOs running in my opinion. I think Cahill wins and the RINO comes in third. If Patrick wins in will be because the RINO took too many votes from Cahill.

Kansas: Safe R

It’s rare to see a ‘safe’ pickup but I don’t see how Brownback loses to a rat sac lamb.

Maine: Tossup

Crowded fields on both sides. State favors the rats. A green and several indies will take votes here too. Love those greens.

Michigan: Lean R

Crowded field. GOP seems optimistic here.

New Hampshire: Safe D (2 year term)

That is if Lynch runs again. Tossup if open.

New Mexico: Leans D

The GOP appears to lack a top candidate here. If Heather Wilson runs this might change to a tossup.

New York: Tossup

Patterson will not win a general. He won’t win the primary if that wimp Cuomo (or Shillery) gets in.

Rick Lazio will be the nominee if Rudy doesn’t run. He can beat Patterson but likely not Cuomo or Shill. Rudy would be a tossup with Cuomo or Shill but he doesn’t seem to want to run.

Cuomo is the strongest rat but also obviously a wimp and a fool who’s terrified of POing the black vote.

Ohio: Tossup

I’m hopeful that Kasich will win. Strickland went from invincible to very vulnerable awfully quick.

Oklahoma: Lean/Likely R

The rat candidate will be the state AG. Watch out, he’s no slouch but should lose. Mary Fallin leads him in the last poll I saw for this race (from June).

Oregon: Lean D

The state tilts rat (and fraud is easy with the mail in ballots) and the rat candidates have won statewide before. The Oregon GOP is poorly run. But the time for a change argument works heavily in the Republican’s favor.

Pennsylvania: Tossup

The Governorship has switched parties every 8 years here since the 50’s. This cannot continue forever but hopefully it will happen one more time. AG Tom Corbett will beat RINOish Congressman Jim Gerlach in the GOP primary. I hope.

In 1994 the State AG (no rats was supposed to win the primary but lost in a crowded field to a RINOish congressman. But later that AG went to prison so....

http://www.goerie.com/risingson/running_for_governor.html

Tennessee: Likely R

Go Ron Ramsey. Lots of weak sisters running in the GOP primary.

Wisconsin: Tossup

I’m hopeful my neighbors to the north will lose a big football game today. I mean I’m hopeful they will not reelect their lousy Governor to a third term.

Wyoming: Safe D/Likely R

The courts through out Wyoming’s term limits for the state leg. It seems certain they will do so if the Guv term limits are challenged too.

Freudenthal will win if he can run. If not, likely R. (though I poo pooed his chances against Eli Bebout, Bebout’s drunk driving son cost him the race)

GOP Seats

Alabama: Lean/Likely R

If Davis wins the rat primary the rats chances are slimmer than if Ron Sparks does.

Alaska: Lean/Likely R

Parnell should beat the Alaska moonbats without much trouble. A much quieter race up there with Palin not running.

Arinoza: Tossup/Lean R

Terry Goddard the AG will be the rat. Rat Ags have a good record winning Governorships but Brewer should win. Butch didn’t leave the state in good shape.

California: Lean D

Maybe I’m being to generous to the RINO Whitman.

Connecticut: Safe R

If the uber-RINO runs. If not Likely D (probably the rat AG would run)

Florida: Lean R

McCollum is well positioned to win.

Hawaii: Tossup/Lean D

Good shot to hold it with a native Hawaiian who’s more conservative than RINO Lindy Lingle.

Idaho: Safe R

Boring. But in a good way.

Nebraska: Safe R

Heineman is one our better Governor by my estimation, dark horse POTUS possibility?

Nevada: Leans R/D

Gibbons would probably lose the general. But if Sandoval beats Gibbons in the primary he will probably win. Reid’s son might run, eww. That helps us

Rhode Island: Tossup

Chafee=Lowell Weicker? Eww I hope not. He’ll take more votes from the rats, he could allow the Republican to win. I’d rather the official rat wins than Chafee.

South Carolina: Lean R

GOP’s to lose in the default in South Carolina this century. Hopefully they won’t. No Andre Bauer!

South Dakota: Safe R

It’s an open seat and is the longest held GOP Governorship (since 1979) but no Herseth mean no rats. I’m reluctant to even downgrade it to “likely R”.

Texas: Lean/Likely R

Rats have an opening. That swine Kinky Friedman isn’t as loathed as he should be among freepers. The more prominent rats are interested in the Senate race instead.

Utah: Safe R

The GOP primary will be the election (no Matheson, no rat). Thank goodness that RINO Huntsman is on another continent.

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So yeah the landscape looks promising at this point.