---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strikingly, and surprisingly, all three measures agreed on the overall macro number – roughly speaking, 25% of US jobs are offshorable. At the micro level, the three measures agreed on the classification (offshorable or not) of a specific person’s job in 70% to 80% of all cases. In studying the detailed responses, we concluded – not surprisingly – that professional coders provided the most accurate assessments of offshorability. That is encouraging news because it implies that the Census Bureau in the US and similar agencies in other countries could easily start producing data on offshorability on a routine basis – probably without changing their survey instruments much, if at all.
In terms of major substantive results, we found that more educated workers appear to hold somewhat more offshorable jobs and that offshorability does not have many statistically significant effects on either wages or the probability of layoff. Perhaps most counter-intuitively, we found that routine work, in the sense defined by Autor et al. (2003), is no more offshorable than work that is not routine.
the political class has been trying to hold back this tide for years, but in the current environment I think the backlash is going to prove too strong too resist. The Architects, Engineers and IT folks who didn’t seem to care when some autoworker’s job got outsourced to Mexico are now jumping into the Ross Perot Brigades with both feet. Smoot-Hawley here we come!
In India they get it. One of their top concerns is what to do not IF the US moves to curtail offshoring, but WHEN.
fear of offshoring may force its way back onto the policy agendas of the US and other rich countries sooner than we think.
We're still a "rich" country???
I didn't know that.
Surprisingly, routine tasks are not more offshorable but those held by more educated workers are....
What might our estimate that roughly 25% of US jobs are, in principle, offshorable imply for public policy?
The relative shrinkage of the manufacturing sector in the US (and elsewhere) from about 30-35% of total employment then to under 10% now was somewhat painful, especially in places where manufacturing was concentrated; it fostered some protectionist sentiment and some protectionist measures, and it induced a variety of other ill-considered policy responses. But, broadly speaking, the adjustment did not precipitate any major economic or social convulsions. This experience suggests that a similar-sized labour force adjustment can, once again, be handled by the market system – with some help from government.
I refer to policies like more job retraining, bolstering the social safety net where it needs bolstering
???
So let me get this straight....
Because we're still "rich", we're supposed to downsize and offshore our educated workforce so we can retrain our dumbed-down peons to go on welfare???
WTF kind of policy is that???
Somebody needs to toss Alan S. Blinder into a pit full of rattlesnakes or crocodiles or something. The man is an idiot.
I found this article in the Krone quite interesting.
The DUMS that run Houston, are turning a blind eye to the coming collapse of the Houston economy.
No need for GAS....no need for JOBS at the refineries.
“CONOCOPHILLIPS SAYS IT WILL REDUCE CAPITAL SPENDING AND SELL SOME ASSETS”
Is ANYONE paying attention?
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/6657619.html
One thing Obama’s destruction of the dollar will accomplish is to make offshoring much less attractive. Of course it does that by lowering Americans’ real wages, and standard of living.