WH Econ Adviser: Job Market Is Really Bad [Bernstein Slides Displayed Severity of Job Market’s Woes]

Reuters Blogs ^ | October 20th, 2009 | by: James Pethokoukis

[Son House]

Listened to an interesting talk today by Jared Bernstein, chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden, at a New America think-tank conference on job creation. A few observations:

1) If Bernstein’s talk was any indication, don’t look for much public celebration by the White House if we get some good 3Q and 4Q GDP numbers. As he put it, “Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery.” He stressed this point several times. I don’t even think you will hear an administration official use the word “recovery” in 2009.

2) Bernstein trotted out several interesting slides — which I am hoping to get hold of — that displayed the severity of the job market’s woes. It really seems like the big problem is not so much layoffs as it is a lack of hiring. Thus the high numbers of long-term unemployed.

3) He didn’t hint at much appetite for the grander second stimulus ideas like a job investment tax credit. (CBO would probably score such a plan as costing $75 billion a year or so, according to an earlier speaker.)

[Son House]

Months to regain lost Jobs after the recession ended, we have a long way to go America, and it starts with this 111th Congress doing what works to grow the economy, immediate tax cuts and stop spending;

[LuvFreeRepublic]

That chart is UGLY. Yes they need to cut taxes and stop spending by rescinding the stimulus package, for a start.

[mo]

Fixing this is easy....tax cuts...cap gains cuts...regulatory relief at all multiple levels.

The can drive the dollar down as far as they want....but if K St and Congress refuse to get their boot off the neck of the American job machine....and deregulate like Reagan did in 1982...business will not invest as long as they think that the kleptomanics in DC can’t keep their hands to themselves.

[Son House]

Let's put this in my context:

Statement from D-Mn Walz’s congressional office

http://www.bluestemprairie.com/a_bluestem_prairie/2009/01/walz-votes-for-stimulus-bill.html

This legislation will create and save 3 to 4 million jobs, rebuilding America,

Sen. Klobuchar on Range:Stimulus bill needed for Jolt to Economy[3.5 mil jobs, 90% private sector]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2366179/posts

“In the nation, this bill will provide 3.5 million jobs in the next two years,” said Klobuchar, adding that she thinks there is a public misconception as to where those jobs will be created. “Ninety percent of them will be in the private sector,” she said.

[Son House]

Thanks for Hosting Free Republic, it's a great place to share and discuss news and information...

[Son House]

Just wanted to fill you in

[Son House]

Do you ever wonder what Biden's Economic Advisor would say to him, if Joe could keep his mouth Shut?

[Son House]

Last one I got, call the reporter at Reuters and ask if these are what he saw, or if there's more...

Well, look at 2007 correlating with Democrat Majorities:

110th United States Congress

http://www.freebase.com/view/en/110th_united_states_congress

between January 3, 2007, and January 3, 2009, during the last two years of the second term of President George W. Bush. The Democratic Party controlled a majority in both chambers

^
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html

GDP - real growth rate:

2.8% (2006 est.)

2% (2007 est.)

1.1% (2008 est.)

[Son House]

Attention 111th United States Congress:

_GDP Growth Needed Immediately!

[TopQuark]

"Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery"

Yep, that's how logical applied economists are. Jobless recovery is incomplete but true nonetheless if the GDP grows.

[TopQuark]

"How about pulling the rug out from under our (barely) free-market but robust just the same health care industry, scramble it and remake it as a taxpayer funded entitlement costing trillions of dollars while raising costs and taxes/fees and decreasing service and quality for all? And while we’re at it, why not yank the foundation from under our energy sector, scramble it, and “revolutionize” it with “green” technology that’s not even here yet."

Excellent point and well worth repeating.

The truth is, there has never been a RECOVERY package; what we have seen was a REFORM package. I wish the Reps stopped arguing whether the "stimulous package has worked," and called out the Obamites' lie, telling the American people that their economy is being reformed rather thatn rejuvinated.

FDR did the same thing in 1930s: using the frustration of the American people, CHANGED the economy towards a fascist one. For instance, price-fixing by the government --- 250,000 prices fixed in the steal industry alone -- entailed prison sentences for a discount given on drtcleaning.

[Son House]

Have a look at 6 of the Bernstein Slides from Post# 21 to Post#28

[Son House]

Have a look at 6 of the Bernstein Slides from Post# 21 to Post#28

[Son House]

Have a look at 6 of the Bernstein Slides from Post# 21 to Post#28

[Son House]

Have a look at 6 of the Bernstein Slides from Post# 21 to Post#28

[TomasUSMC]

gREAT INFO !!!

[Son House]

One more slide could be the private sector Jobs Congress and the White House are destroying

[Son House]

The truth is, there has never been a RECOVERY package; what we have seen was a REFORM package.

Republicans need to tie the Job losses to Democrat legislation and explain the declining GDP, being the current Democrat Majority in Congress is gullible and/or corrupt;

After what legislation was there the largest spike up in the Real GDP?
a. February 17, 2009: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act = 111th United States Congress
b. October 3, 2008 — Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 = 110th United States Congress
c. February 13, 2008 — Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 = 110th United States Congress
d. May 28, 2003 — Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 = 108th United States Congress

( Ignore the green forecast, it was wishful thinking)

[CutePuppy]

Thanks for the ping and the charts.

As he put it, “Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery.” He stressed this point several times. I don’t even think you will hear an administration official use the word “recovery” in 2009.

He is right to press the point, it makes sense both economically and politically.

1. We don't yet have "economic recovery", as the large part of the economy still struggles with trying to grow revenues amid sectors' deflation, weak dollar and related inflation in certain commodities, such as oil, and fighting the "Obama effect". What we have is the "earnings recovery" due to continuation of severe cost cutting, which has started even before financial crisis, and we are no longer in the midst of a financial liquidity crisis and bear raids on financial institutions which were reminiscent of bear raids during Great Depression.

2. Politically, they can use "slow economy" and "unemployment crisis" to keep pushing more deficit spending and statist legislations and regulations, and they would want to have more financial "stimulus" kick in next year, which is why their "porkulus" was designed to be back-loaded to start most of its spending February 2010, to have most effect on the elections.

So, downplaying the "recovery" now is not any kind of admission of their failed policies, but rather a setup for extending the blame for current conditions on "previous administration" and rampimg up to the 2010 election season's "recovery" however it will be defined at the time. It's a "constant campaign" mode, just like Dems had with Clinton.

[CutePuppy]

Republicans need to tie the Job losses to Democrat legislation and explain the declining GDP, being the current Democrat Majority in Congress is gullible and/or corrupt;

I don't have a chart, but there is almost a direct correlation between recession and higher unemployment about a year or two after the increases in minimum wage. And there are sound economic principles to show that in this case correlation is causation.