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Very good post -- and excellent case study you presented there.

That also explains why a commercial property I own is still doing OK, even as an identical property next door is getting hammered. Lease rates are down at least 35% across the board . . . which affects both properties equally. But the one I manage was purchased by my family 25 years ago for less than half the unit price ($/sq.ft.) than the price on the building next door that was purchased by the current owner two years ago.

At lease rates 35% lower than they were 18 months ago, the owner next door is facing a disaster. We, on the other hand, can take it in stride because even at lower lease revenue we were able to refinance the mortgage a few months ago for another five years -- and at historically low interest rates.

Commercial Realestate will lead the second half of this recession, from what I know. The commercial investors have been eating their own equity in the form of interest payments while land goes unsold, development is stifled by manufacturing, distribution, warehouse and office vacancies fall or stagnate. There will come a time when the big money runs out and losses will be booked and unloaded. Commercial property values are way down and default in many cases will be a better option than a fire sale. Also, most development is financed by LLC investors that are protected. When they run out of money and the proceeds from a sale will not cover a loan, they will liquidate, fold and walk. The old money out there with staggering lien leveraged assets will see lenders in a second wave of crisis. The unit numbers will not be so high but the dollars will be staggering.

Why haven't we heard more about this? It is bad business for an investor or a proprietor to announce that he is having trouble with investments or that he can't pay his bills. It is the investors that are credited with securing financing from lenders and much of it comes with secured down payments and the credit worthiness of the application participants. They do not want to announce, "Hey, we are just going to give that one to the bank." then turn around and ask, "Look we have all this money. Can we get a loan to purchase and develop this property?" They do all they can to hid their identities as it is for this very reason.

Here is the response I initially posted that asked for an explanation. I suppose it would make more sense if the question had some reference. Again, this was my position over a month ago.

I cannot get the link to the original article to work.