Posted on 10/30/2009 4:42:41 AM PDT by Uncle Ike
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12150902/H1N1_Ukraine_507.html
Commentary
Ukraine H1N1 Cases Explode - 507 Dead
Recombinomics Commentary 21:25
December 15, 2009
2,690,563 Influenza/ARI
156,272 Hospitalized
507 Dead
The above numbers are from today’s Ministry of Health update on the H1N1 situation in Ukraine. Deaths have passed to 500 mark, but the above numbers show a major jump in cases, which are 143,961 higher than yesterday (see map). Donetsk increased 16,352 to 225,476 and Dnipropetrovsk increased 15,236 to 297,971. The latest figures extend a reversal of the downturn and clear represent a new wave in Ukraine. This new wave suggests similar results will be seen in the region, setting the stage for a major peak throughout the northern hemisphere in early 2010.
In addition, media reports said that over 200 fatalities have been H1N1 lab confirmed, setting the stage for a robust sequence database. Mill Hill released data on 10 isolates at GISAID, which included nine from hard hit western Ukraine in October. Five of the nine were from nasopharyngeal washes and were similar to isolates from Norway. However, all four of the HA sequences from fatal cases had D225G. Similarly, the CDC released data on five cases. Three matched the Mill Hill data on nasopharyngeal washes, while two were new and were likely fatal cases. Both had D225N, raising concerns that the receptor binding domain changes played a role in the fatal result. Both of these polymorphisms are rare in pandemic HA sequences at GISAID and Genbank. Results for other countries highlighted the linkage between RBD changes and fatal or severe outcomes. However, since changes ar position 225 can alter receptor binding specificity, it would be useful to have multiple samples from these fatal cases.
The more than 200 confirmed fatal cases should lead to a rapid increase in the sequence database from Ukraine.
Ukraine comes second wave of influenza
Ukraine is on the threshold of the second wave of an influenza epidemic - reported “Komsomolskaya Pravda”. In the past few days in several regions sharply increased the number of patients. According to recent data, 13 regions are at risk. Local authorities refer classes in schools.
Number of patients increased in regions in which months ago was the most cases of illness. The most endangered is the region of Donetsk, Zaporizhia Oblast, as well as the Sevastopol and Cherkasy. 800 thousand. A/H1N1 vaccine must withdraw
In place from 20 to 24 December will be closed in these regions, educational and government institutions. He informed the minister of health of Ukraine Vasyl Kniaziewicz shortly after the New Year across the country will be placed in quarantine for all learners.
According to recent data, from the beginning declared the epidemic over the country got sick 2 546 622 citizens of Ukraine. From 29 October to 14 December there were 501 fatal cases.
Specialists predict that the flu will now attack, in particular in the east of the country. Physicians estimate that increasing rates will continue until mid-February 2010.
Commentary
Ukraine Fatalities Jump to 940 - Over 4 Million Infected
Recombinomics Commentary 13:20
January 12, 2010
4,106,091 Influenza/ARI
242,246 Hospitalized
940 Dead
The above tally is the latest from the Ukraine Ministry of Health website. The number dead has increased by 22 in the past 24 h and 42 in the past 48 h, which is close to one death per hour, even though the number of cases per day has decline so only 5 of the 27 regions remain above the epidemic threshold. In the past 2 days there were 7 deaths recorded for Kyiv and 6 for Donetsk, which now has 134 deaths (see map).
The high rate of fatalities is of concern because of the high frequency of fatal cases with receptor binding domain changes. Although several countries have a case fatality rate for H1N1 patients with D225G/N, in Ukraine all 8 sequences from fatal cases have D225G, D225N, or both.
Moreover, similar changes are being reported for adjacent regions in Russia and Moldova, and spikes in fatalities are also being reported in countries in the region, including a cluster in Romainia
Ukraine is being careful watched because of concerns that the sub-clade with these receptor binding domain changes will became more common, leading to a higher rate of severe and fatal cases. Recent sequences from the Kyiv area had both D225G and D225N, which corresponds to the spread of fatal H1N1 cases.
Sequences from fatal cases in eastern Ukraine would be useful.
link is http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01121002/Ukraine_940.html
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