"Instead, let me just lay out the three distinct parts of this district:
"• Western North Country (Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lawrence Counties): These counties are Scozzafava's base; together, they make up 35% of the district's vote. This is probably also the swingiest part of the district, with Jefferson (home of Watertown and Ft. Drum) going for McCain, 47/52, and Lewis going for McCain 45/54. St. Lawrence went for Obama 58/41.
"• Eastern North Country (Clinton, Essex, and Franklin Counties): These counties, centered on Plattsburgh in Clinton County, are Owens's geographic base; they make up 25% of the vote. This is also the most Democratic part of the district: Clinton went for Obama 61/38, Essex (part) 56/42, and Franklin 60/38.
"• Syracuse market (Oswego, Oneida, and Madison Counties): These counties are further south and in the Syracuse media market; they make up 35% of the vote. These seem to have become Hoffman's de facto turf since a) he doesn't live in the district and b) without a favorite son/daughter, they're more open to persuasion by TV ad. They're also on the conservative side: Obama won Madison 49/48 and Oswego 50/48, while losing the part of Oneida 39/59. (The remaining 5% of the vote is in two rural counties in the leg that sticks down into the Adirondacks; they're quite conservative, with McCain winning Fulton (part) 40/59 and Hamilton 36/63.)
"One path to victory for Owens (by a, say, 47/46/6 margin) would be to win the eastern North Country with percentages in the high 50s, while breaking at least 40% in the Syracuse area while holding Hoffman in the low 50s. He would need to break 40% in Scozzafava's turf, which would require keeping her numbers in the single digits. (As at this point, Scozzafava votes are probably ideologically more aligned with Owens, i.e. life-long moderate Republicans who just can't bring themselves to vote for a Demmycrat and decide to go down with the ship). "
Still looking for county votes.
The GOP lost the congressional race in CA too.