Posted on 11/05/2009 6:49:57 PM PST by VRWCTexan
The UN's nuclear watchdog has asked Iran to explain evidence suggesting that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, the Guardian has learned.
The very existence of the technology, known as a "two-point implosion" device, is officially secret in both the US and Britain, but according to previously unpublished documentation in a dossier compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of the design. The development was today described by nuclear experts as "breathtaking" and has added urgency ...
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
I don’t think Israel will strike because they can’t be sure of destroying the Iranian program. In the case of Iraq one strike did.
But...but...Bush is gone and everyone likes us now. Those evil JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooos have a bomb so way can’t Iran? /sarc
What worries me is how willing Iran might be to take themselves down along with the World economy when the Israelis finally attack.
Lots of experts say that Iran would not close the Straits of Hormuz for example, because it would potentially hurt them as well, but given the proven jihadist mentality I think Iran would not hesitate to try and crash the world oil economy by closing the Straits.
But Iran has also conducted missile tests in the past that are disturbingly similar to an EMP attack, and a missile only need get a couple of hundred miles straight up over a target to do maximum damage with an EMP weapon.
Any number of scenarios are possible, and you have to consider what the Iranians are capable of doing if they do in fact have a novel way of making effective nuclear warheads. Keep in mind that they don’t need a lot of fissile material to be an enormous threat....
You know how we know Israel will NOT attack? Because we do not hear vigorous statements that they will NOT.
Instead, we hear all this sabre-rattling, and that means they will NOT attack.
And here at FR we allll know very well how motivated our Dear Leader really is to Take Care of Biz.
So apparently we’ll all just click our ruby heels and scream there’s no place like home...
Ping.
That means they probably have a small nuclear device and they are trying develop something like a W88.
I would agree that Israel would “choke” befor acting - other than fact that we are dealing with Bibi - not the typical Israeli doves.
Likewise, it is not a case of having to totally wipe out every aspect of Iran’s program - only a few key/critical components
Finally IMO one has to calculate that the Iranian people will raise up in revolt against the current rulers - which could well be a game changer ?
A very inefficient implosion design is one that simply reshapes an ovoid into a sphere, with minimal compression. In linear implosion, an untamped, solid, elongated mass of Pu-239, larger than critical mass in a sphere, is embedded inside a cylinder of high explosive with a detonator at each end.
Detonation makes the pit critical by driving the ends inward, creating a spherical shape. The shock may also change plutonium from delta to alpha phase, increasing its density by 23%, but without the inward momentum of a true implosion. The lack of compression makes it inefficient, but the simplicity and small diameter make it suitable for use in artillery shells and atomic demolition munitions – ADMs – also known as backpack or suitcase nukes.
I don’t think that Iranians against the regime are necessarily against Iran having Nukes and I doubt Israel is capable of doing enough damage with enough certainty to try.
It's like saying a culture that can't figure out an internal combustion engine for a Model T type car is designing advanced jet propulsion systems for a space rockets... ( so who's helping them? Germans, Russians or our own stupid University system? )
Like saying a culture that can't figure out an internal combustion engine for a Model T type car is designing advanced jet propulsion systems for a space rockets... ( so who's helping them? Germans, Russians or our own stupid University system? )
This is for a plutonium bomb. So, where would a bunch of people who are having difficulty refining uranium get plutonium? It’s a fairly short list, actually. The bad news is that the North Koreans are on it. The good news is that they haven’t solved this one yet either. But other people have, and that knowledge will be out there...for a price.
It would be more than safe to assume that Israeli intelligence has been studying the Iranian nuclear program in great detail for a very long time.
By now I’m sure Israel has identified all of the “choke points” in the Iranian program and all of their facilities and logistics. In fact, I’ll bet Israel already has dozens of “nuclear scientists” and other sleeper agents in place.
I’m just waiting to read about some terrible nuclear accident in one of Iran’s underground facilities. Hundreds dead, widespread contamination ... tragic!
After years od delay the Russians are set to start up Iran’s Busheir Nuclear power plant - the fuel was delivered and stored months ago.
The various reports I’ve seen indicate that once operating this facility has the capacity to spin of enough plutonium for upwards of 12 medium sized weapons be year
Likewise ans you noted, I believe it’s likely the North Koreans have sold Iran lots of goodies
My only point was that, if soundly attacked by Israel, I would expect it to be so politically damaging to the current unpopular government - that it would be forced to fall by an irate Iranian mob -
Thus throwing another major delay into any weapons program - if not actually allowing a more moderate force to take hold?
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