[ansel12]

So in that regard I’d suspect that they’d help the GOP win in whatever way they can. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the 2 Presidents since Israel was founded who were seen by the Israelis to have turned against Israel(Carter and Bush41)were both defeated for reelection.

The defeat of those two sitting American Presidents was not a result of a shift of a minuscule number of Jewish votes, so how did they do it?

[jeltz25]

Well, it wasn’t just a miniscule shift.

In 76 Carter beat Ford among Jews 71-27, 44 pts. In 80 he barely beat Reagan among Jews 45-39, only 6 pts. Now Reagan had such a big win it didn’t matter in the end. Still a noticeable difference.

In 1988 Bush got 35% of the Jewish vote vs Dukakis. By 1992, he fell to 11% vs Clinton. After no Republican had gotten less than 27 since 1968. After 4 of the last 5 had gotten at least 30.

Also, Jews are way more liberal and pro dem to begin with. So even a small shift in the Jewish vote means a huge shift in the Christian vote. IOW, if the GOP went went from say the 22 they got last yr among Jews to 27, just a 5 pt gain, it’d likely mean they had a much larger gain among protestants and catholics, which would be enough of a difference to decide an election.

Bush got 24% and won in 2004, but that extra 2 pts was indicative of the extra pts he got among non-Jews.

So it’s not necessarily a shift in the Jewish vote. Many Jews don’t even really care about Israel anyway. Especially most of the ones who vote dem.

But Jews are sort of the canary in the coal mine. If they turn from the dems even in small numbers, it means others are turning from them in much larger numbers.

I think it’s more an overall thing. People in Israel still know some very powerful people in the US. In the defense, business, media industries. They know how to send signals. That can make a difference. I’m not saying it’s some huge Jewish conspiracy, more subtle nudging. Enough people start getting told “maybe this guy is bad news. you know, we’re ok with the other guy, we think he may be good for us.”

Israel has a lot of ties to US Jewish orgs and groups/ When Jews were unsure of Obama last yr and in 2007, the good press he got and assurances from such groups and his AIPAC speeches helped him a great deal. A lot of included wink-winks and other statements from people close to Israel who passed along the word that he was ok and on their side. There was a huge PR effort among Jewish groups to make him acceptable, to convince Jews, especially older(50+) Jews that Obama could be trusted on Israel and other issues. Probably pushed him from the high 60s/low 70s to the high 70s. Maybe even more.

Now, everyone knows they’ve been sold a bill of goods. If that machinery were to turn against him, and especially if it were to actively support his opponent or at least work to make him(or her)be seen as acceptable(especially to Jewish voters who tend to be cool to Republicans because they’re seen as too Christian and religious), that could be a big deal. Especially in FL, older voters in OH. McCain got 48% in FL last year. Even a small shift among Jews there could get him to 50.

Or, maybe it’s just a coincidence that the 2 Presidents seen as most anti-Israel both went down after one term. I don’t think so, though.