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Why No One Expects a Strong Recovery
The Wall Street Journal ^ | NOVEMBER 19, 2009 | JEB HENSARLING AND PAUL RYAN

Posted on 11/20/2009 2:50:01 AM PST by Puzzleman

One of the strongest factors promoting recovery from our 10 post-World War II recessions was an unshakable conviction that, regardless of the immediate trouble, the American economy is fundamentally strong. Based on this underlying confidence, recessions and recoveries roughly conformed to the principle of the bigger the bust, the bigger the boom, and vice versa.

Thus real growth in the four quarters following postwar recessions averaged 6.6% and 4.3% over the following five years. As the chief economist for Barclays, Dean Maki, said in this newspaper on Aug. 19, "You can't find a single deep recession that has been followed by a moderate recovery."

That may no longer hold...

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial
KEYWORDS: healthcare; stimulus; taxes
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A well-written article about an important subject.
1 posted on 11/20/2009 2:50:02 AM PST by Puzzleman
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To: Puzzleman
I, for one, don't expect a significant recovery because Obama and the dem congress and senate seem hell bent to crash our economy. I used to think it was because they were just stupid, but I've grown to suspect they are intentionally attempting to crash it.
2 posted on 11/20/2009 3:13:19 AM PST by highlander_UW (To anger a conservative tell him a lie. To anger a liberal tell him the truth.)
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To: highlander_UW

“I’ve grown to suspect they are intentionally attempting to crash it.”

I pretty much agree, and the scary part is what will they,
Obama’s puppet masters, do to keep him in power.
As it looks now, the Dimos face a real bloodbath in 2010, and Obozo looks like a Carter redo in 2012.
This gang of Marxist thugs is not Jimmuh, and they will not just walk away.
Maybe I am just a bit paranoid?


3 posted on 11/20/2009 3:23:59 AM PST by AlexW (Now in the Philippines . Happy not to be back in the USA for now.)
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To: highlander_UW
Yep.

I posted this a month or two ago in response to whether I though Barack Obama was deliberately trying to destroy the USA.

I agreed that I was of that opinion, and here is one of the reasons why:

Joseph McCarthy gave a speech on the Senate floor in 1951, and later wrote a book that expounded on and backed up his points that he made on the floor, called “America’s Retreat from Victory”.

Like many people (including Joseph McCarthy himself) I was unwilling to attach any negative aspirations or actions to someone like George Catlett Marshall who was hailed as a war hero and one of the greatest men of the 20th century.

McCarthy, though not inclined, came to the conclusion that there was a lot at stake, and was willing not only to say what he thought publicly, but to back it up with documentation, which he did in his book mentioned above (A copy of which I purchased a couple of years ago)

It is a stunning book, but how it relates to this subject here is this: In his analysis, Joseph McCarthy made the point that if some of the things that were done by Marshall that helped the communists were simply the result of a poor analysis or choice on his part, someone with his intellect would be likely to choose correctly at least SOME of the time, as a matter of averages. And that rarely happened. Without fail, nearly every choice and action in which Marshall was part of, they all were to the advantage of both the Soviets and the Chicoms.

The same can be said of Obama, in my estimation. If the appalling cumulative negative bulk of his actions were due to his stupidity or inexperience, at least some of his actions would be helpful to our country, simply as a result of the laws of averages.

None are.

And that tells me something.

4 posted on 11/20/2009 3:34:47 AM PST by rlmorel (Obama, The Flatulence of One Thousand Black Dogs After Eating Boiled Eggs Be Upon Him...)
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To: Puzzleman

The single biggest impediment to a true economic recovery: Barack Hussein Obama. Mmmmm. Mmmmm. Mmmmm.


5 posted on 11/20/2009 3:37:01 AM PST by wny
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To: Puzzleman
This one is easy. The United States, as an economy, produces little of the what the world wants. If they want to buy something other than planes they go to China, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc. After WWII, with our production capabilities, no one could touch us.

Now what do we sell now? Our debt? Some software? We barely make steel anymore. What will the world buy from us that someone somewhere else can't produce cheaper?

The idea that we can all be rich waiting on each other was touted as the new economy and look where we are. Think real estate agents, mortgage brokers, bankers, etc. They are the ones that got us into this mess. And, the paradigm is that they can do it again.

It's a fallacy.

6 posted on 11/20/2009 3:44:14 AM PST by raybbr (It's going to get a lot worse now that the anchor babies are voting!)
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To: rlmorel
The same can be said of Obama, in my estimation. If the appalling cumulative negative bulk of his actions were due to his stupidity or inexperience, at least some of his actions would be helpful to our country, simply as a result of the laws of averages. None are. And that tells me something.

I"m of the same mind and for similar reasons. Some of the choices are so obviously bad that I don't think Obama and his puppetmasters are that stupid. And lately even Obama has been giving lip service to not running up deficits...and yet he and the dems do the exact opposite. It is clear that he's aware of what the correct direction would be by his lip service, but their actions don't line up with the obvious. Hence, I have grown to believe it is their intent to crash the system. Beck refers to the Cloward-Piven strategy, and that more and more appears to be what they're trying.

7 posted on 11/20/2009 3:51:31 AM PST by highlander_UW (To anger a conservative tell him a lie. To anger a liberal tell him the truth.)
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To: Puzzleman

The logical extension of this article is that investments should be made outside of the US in countries which are insulated from the US economic malaise. What would those countries be? Commodity based countries? Rising relatively free enterprise powers like India? Ideas?


8 posted on 11/20/2009 3:53:27 AM PST by Truth29
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To: AlexW
This gang of Marxist thugs is not Jimmuh, and they will not just walk away. Maybe I am just a bit paranoid?

I don't think you're paranoid. They went to much effort and expense to put Obama into power...they will not willingly give up that power. Now it may be that they will allow Obama to be a fall guy after they get some of the programs they want into place and will put forth another hand picked candidate and rely on setting the table for stealing the election.

9 posted on 11/20/2009 3:54:49 AM PST by highlander_UW (To anger a conservative tell him a lie. To anger a liberal tell him the truth.)
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To: raybbr

” The idea that we can all be rich waiting on each other was touted as the new economy and look where we are. “

BINGO!!

I enjoy a good ‘Obama Bash’ as much as the next guy, and, for sure, ‘0’ and the Dims seem to be doing everything in their power to make things worse —

But the roots of our looming disaster are much deeper than this - going back to, at least, the Clinton ‘boom’, which was based on the ‘dot-com’ bubble (there was no ‘there’ there) and the smoke-and-mirrors ‘wealth effect’....

Reality has struck back, and it *hurts*.....


10 posted on 11/20/2009 3:57:12 AM PST by Uncle Ike (Rope is cheap, and there are lots of trees...)
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To: highlander_UW; All

I agree 100% that they are pursuing the Cloward-Piven strategy.

He is a socialist, through and through, a committed Marxist who hates capitalism in all of its iterations.

In addition to that, they are using the same strategy to enact climate legislation. They think that if they bankrupt us all, then raise energy costs so high that we won’t be able to heat our homes in the winter or drive our cars, that we will clamor for the government to give us our dole of “government coal” each day, and pine for a piece of crap GM electric car built by the government.

Same with Health Care. If they succeed and put so many people out of work that there will be an addition of tens of millions of normally hard-working, self-sufficient people to the ranks of those without heath care, and they will all (of their own free will) want the government to pick up the tab.

Yeah. He was an enthusiastic adherent of socialism and Marxism in his community organizing just a few years ago. Most people don’t change their spots, and he certainly didn’t change his.


11 posted on 11/20/2009 4:12:23 AM PST by rlmorel (Obama, The Flatulence of One Thousand Black Dogs After Eating Boiled Eggs Be Upon Him...)
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To: Puzzleman

Economists call it an echo, the real crash is coming.


12 posted on 11/20/2009 4:13:53 AM PST by Bon mots
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To: raybbr

It isn’t primarily what the world could buy from the USA that had made this country a great magnet for commerce.

It was the capitalist environment that up until the 1960’s that existed, and the commerce it fostered.

It was the idea and a place to pursue it.

But beginning in the Sixties in earnest (and initiated in the New Deal in the Thirties) government began in earnest to tear at the foundations of capitalism. We have been coasting ever since, not climbing.


13 posted on 11/20/2009 4:17:58 AM PST by rlmorel (Obama, The Flatulence of One Thousand Black Dogs After Eating Boiled Eggs Be Upon Him...)
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To: AlexW
“This gang of Marxist thugs is not Jimmuh, and they will not just walk away.
Maybe I am just a bit paranoid?”

Nope. Not paranoid. This is note for note what I was thinking yesterday. Jimmah went down confused and befuddled with his dreamworld policies. These thugs, however, sense that this is their last chance. At some level they know they'll fail as Carter failed, but they have no intention of letting the power slip away. If they can't enact the socialized nonsense (that they have put ahead of jobs and the economy for good reason) which will be their main thrust into the heart of the Constitution then I fully expect them to manufacture some disaster or catastrophe. I don't think of it as paranoia, rather, the simple recognition of the nature of the beast.

14 posted on 11/20/2009 4:19:26 AM PST by TalBlack
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To: AlexW
“Maybe I am just a bit paranoid?” No, you are not paranoid. These are dangerous people who seek to destroy the Untied States and remake it in the own image.

They will pull every dirty trick in the book to remain in power. If indeed Obama loses in the next election, it would not surprise me at all, that they simply say “We won” and refuse to vacate the office!

And with the way that they are stacking the courts with liberal (Marxist) judges there would not be a lot that could be done through traditional legal channels.

15 posted on 11/20/2009 4:22:58 AM PST by Shane (I'll keep my guns, money and freedom, you can keep the change.)
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To: rlmorel

Joseph McCarthy made the point that if some of the things that were done by Marshall that helped the communists were simply the result of a poor analysis or choice on his part, someone with his intellect would be likely to choose correctly at least SOME of the time, as a matter of averages. And that rarely happened. Without fail, nearly every choice and action in which Marshall was part of, they all were to the advantage of both the Soviets and the Chicoms.


I’m sorry, but isn’t the Marshall Plan generally credited with saving Western Europe from going RED after WWII? At least that’s what all the history books say. What is your evidence otherwise?


16 posted on 11/20/2009 4:26:49 AM PST by rbg81 (DRAIN THE SWAMP!!)
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To: Puzzleman

This is an agenda by design.


17 posted on 11/20/2009 4:28:53 AM PST by ronnie raygun (Leaders who refuse to lead will be lead by the people)
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To: highlander_UW

Cloward-Piven. Google it if you don’t know what it is.


18 posted on 11/20/2009 4:34:45 AM PST by thecabal (Destroy Progressivism)
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To: thecabal
Cloward-Piven. Google it if you don’t know what it is.

Yes, I know, I refer to it specifically in post number 7. Thank you though.

19 posted on 11/20/2009 4:37:42 AM PST by highlander_UW (To anger a conservative tell him a lie. To anger a liberal tell him the truth.)
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To: raybbr
Now what do we sell now? Our debt? Some software? We barely make steel anymore. What will the world buy from us that someone somewhere else can't produce cheaper?

I have been posting about not making anything with physical intrinsic value for a long time. All the "Dirty Hands" industries have been destroyed.

So..One person angrily posted, "What about Google, who created thousands of jobs, or Amazon?"

Good point, except:

Google makes money on other peoples' content. They archive YOUR website pictures to generate THEIR traffic, among many examples.

Amazon sells OTHER PEOPLES' products. All these high-flying investment places create no physical commodity. It's just multilevel marketing where everyone in the food chain gets a piece of some actual producer's efforts.

It's all vapor and a house of cards.

No one NEEDS these places as a fundamental survival source. If the infrastructure collapses, so will they, and they will cease to matter, except for the legions of employees turned loose with no physical skills.

20 posted on 11/20/2009 5:11:30 AM PST by Gorzaloon ("Lay the proud usurpers low! Tyrants fall in every foe! Liberty's in every blow!")
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