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I've posted on this before and I'd like to repeat the warning I issued earlier. Don't pay a lot of attention to these polls.

Pay attention to Demographics. Here are the facts of life:

1. 90% of Blacks will vote for Obama no matter what. And this may be a conservative estimate. Obama could be indited for espionage and treason and he'd get 75% of the Black vote.

2. 75% of Hispanics will vote for Obama no matter what. They want total amnesty for all illegals and they will vote for him based on this.

3. 25% of Whites will vote for Obama no matter what. You could have Obama call for the genocide of all whites and he'd still get 25% of the White vote. You have hard core socialists, certain ethnicities, older people who still think the Democrats are the party of JFK, and stupid young people with public school educations.

When you add all this up you are very close to having enough people to win the election. It doesn't make a damn bit of difference what independents think.

Obama will get more than 25% of the white vote. I don't see the GOP candidate getting any more than 65% even if Obama buggered a statue of Jesus on national television while fellating Osama Bin Laden. Its gotten that bad.

I live in New York City. Most of the folks having "second thoughts" about Obama prefer it if Hillary would have won. Not a chance in hell that these folks would vote for the GOP's own celebutard from Alaska.

> When you add all this up you are very close to having
> enough people to win the election.

One factor that is NOT accounted for in this data is every politician's greatest fear: An unmotivated electorate, leading to poor T-U-R-N-O-U-T on Election Day.

Obama “supporters” may LIKE Obama, but getting them to come out to vote is a different matter. Even "Likely Voter" polls miss the mark on this somewhat intangible predictor.

Look at the 2009 Governor races in NJ and Virginia as a reference to this fact.