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Why I'm (Cautiously) Optimistic About The Future
Seeking Alpha ^ | 11-29-2009 | John Mauldin

Posted on 11/29/2009 8:40:46 AM PST by blam

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1 posted on 11/29/2009 8:40:47 AM PST by blam
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To: blam
The future holds two possible outcomes...
If Obama enacts his plans for America, the outcome is bleak.

If Obama's vision for America is relocated to the round file, our future is bright.

All America needs right now (economically) can be realized by cutting tax rates, cutting government spending, eliminating or substantially reducing regulation of the development and production of domestic oil, gas, and shale oil, and reducing the size of government.
2 posted on 11/29/2009 9:05:45 AM PST by SonOfDarkSkies
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To: blam

Why I’m (Cautiously) Optimistic About The Future

I’ll add mine

If Climate gate was exposed as a fraud, There is hope. Health Care is not passed as yet, Less than a year to a change in Congress. Maybe some decent Conservatives will get in

Roll on


3 posted on 11/29/2009 9:06:20 AM PST by reefdiver ("Let His day's be few And another takes His office")
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To: blam

I don’t know how we grow our way out of the debt, and I don’t know how we get out of recession by increasing taxes. It would be damn hard to fix things even if Obama is stopped in 2010 and booted in 2012.


4 posted on 11/29/2009 9:10:21 AM PST by Defiant (The absence of bias appears to be bias to those who are biased.)
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To: blam

$80-$90 billion? Why the big deal? That’s chump change. It’s a fraction of what was lost in the sub-prime crisis, it’s nearly a tenth of Obama’s stimulus package. Hell, we gave the automakers nearly half this amount.


5 posted on 11/29/2009 9:13:10 AM PST by umgud (I couldn't understand why the ball kept getting bigger......... then it hit me.)
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To: SonOfDarkSkies
If Obama's vision for America is relocated to the round file, our future is bright.

I'll ask this question again. Assume that conservatives have their prayers answered. Dems are routed in 2010, ending any possibility of Obama getting his radical plans through Congress. Assume that Obama is booted in 2012, and a conservative is elected.

What policies would the new President follow that would provide a path to economic recovery? In other words, even with great people at the helm, is it really a bright future? Is it really that simple? If it is, I want to know what the solution is that fixes things like the deficit.

6 posted on 11/29/2009 9:16:24 AM PST by Defiant (The absence of bias appears to be bias to those who are biased.)
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To: reefdiver
"Less than a year to a change in Congress."

Let's hope that enough of us feel that way to make it happen. I hope for a major change, if HC & C&T are stalled maybe we can hope for at least a stalemate in Congress. I want more but grid lock is looking pretty good right now.

7 posted on 11/29/2009 9:17:13 AM PST by WHBates
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To: blam

I am not optimistic, cautiously or otherwise.

There is only one ray of hope:

PALIN/BACHMANN 2012


8 posted on 11/29/2009 9:22:08 AM PST by Arthur McGowan (In Edward Kennedy's America, federal funding of brothels is a right, not a privilege.)
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

IF we can survive till November 2010 and IF enough Republicans win who will block any more Obama BS we can at least not inflict any more damage till O is out


9 posted on 11/29/2009 9:22:45 AM PST by woofie
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To: blam

He makes some good points. It may well be that technological innovation and entrepreneurship save us from our own stupidity. On the other hand, I think these same forces also insulates us from the consequences of our stupidity, thereby fueling even greater (liberal) stupidity. Which side will win? Who knows. I guess that makes me “caustiously optimisitic”.


10 posted on 11/29/2009 9:23:41 AM PST by rbg81 (DRAIN THE SWAMP!!)
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To: blam

Capital is the fuel for the engine of achievement and Zero has spent or borrowed so much that engine is running on fumes. It’s going to be a long hard climb out of the hole he’s put us in , not made any easier by the multitudes of fools with their moral compass fixed on south who will keep trying to do those things that make it worse.


11 posted on 11/29/2009 9:29:31 AM PST by Nateman (If liberals aren't screaming you're doing it wrong.)
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To: blam

In the article it says that markets are pricing in 5% growth for the US next year. HELLO. Anyone home? We cannot grow, we’ll be lucky to keep from shrinking 5% next year. Credit is gone (except for buying houses and cars), regulations continue to slowly strangle business, and we keep running huge deficits.

All I can say is that I’m glad that I have no money in stocks now...if they are expecting that kind of growth.


12 posted on 11/29/2009 9:34:02 AM PST by BobL (Real Men don't use Tag Lines)
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To: Defiant
Even though Obama has run up a big bill (deficit spending), it can all be reversed with some very sensible policies. In fact, I am surprised that our economy is doing as well as it is considering what an idiot our president is.

What needs to be done is that, first, our government needs to create a stable business environment for small businesses. Small business owners need to see that they will not suffer an unfair tax burden such as that planned by Obama (in fact, corporate and individual tax rates need to be cut across the board) and that they will not be required to provide healthcare for employees. Also, the government could provide a big boost to small business by eliminating the minimum wage.

Second, the government needs to assure investors that government spending will be substantially reduced and that any new revenues generated by an improving economy will be used to reduce outstanding debt.

Third, the government should move immediately to reduce and/or eliminate restrictions on the development of oil, gas, shale oil wherever it exists in the U.S. and offshore. The technology exists such that this can be done without threatening the environment. Along these lines, the government should provide for the immediate expansion of nuclear generating facilities.

These simple steps would provide an immediate boost to the economy and job creation.

13 posted on 11/29/2009 9:55:12 AM PST by SonOfDarkSkies
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To: Defiant

Here’s a start:

1. Real money: Silver and gold coins IN CIRCULATION. Withdraw the post-1964 base-metal slugs. Announce that on January 1, 2014, the price of gold will be fixed. Let the market find the correct price of gold. Then, introduce a NEW DOLLAR that is worth 1/20 of one oz. of gold, and convert all old dollars into new dollars at the proper ratio.

2. Repudiate the unfunded liabilities of the U.S. government—i.e., Sochcurity, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. Then, enact programs to soften the transition for those over certain ages, phased out so that younger people are neither paying in nor expecting any payout.

3. Abolish the Fed.

4. Repeal the 16th, 17th, and 19th Amendments.

5. The President must instruct the GOVERNORS in their duty to nullify usurped powers of the federal government—starting with Roe v. Wade and similar USSC usurpations, and continuing with unfunded mandates, gun laws, drug laws, etc.


14 posted on 11/29/2009 9:56:16 AM PST by Arthur McGowan (In Edward Kennedy's America, federal funding of brothels is a right, not a privilege.)
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To: Defiant

Clarification: The withdrawal of the base-metal slug dimes and quarters, and the circulation of real money (gold and silver coins) will have to occur AFTER the new dollar is introduced.


15 posted on 11/29/2009 9:59:10 AM PST by Arthur McGowan (In Edward Kennedy's America, federal funding of brothels is a right, not a privilege.)
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To: blam

With a name like ‘’Maudlin’’ this guys ‘’optimistic’’ about the future. Well there irony for you, eh?


16 posted on 11/29/2009 10:00:37 AM PST by JoeMac (''Dats all I can stands 'cuz I can't stands no more''. Popeye The Sailorman)
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To: Defiant
I notice that I didn't answer your last question about how the deficit is reduced.

My point is that a strong economy will produce the tax revenues need to begin to pay down the deficit particularly if spending is significantly reduced.

On additional point is well worth making and that is the system of taxation needs to be completely overhauled. It is my understanding that it costs more to operate the IRS than the actual revenues contributed to the Treasury after that cost is paid. If that is even remotely true, there is a huge opportunity to reduce spending right at the beginning of the revenue production mechanism.

Early in my career, I worked with a large CPA firm in their tax practice. The tax regs were a mess then...I can only imagine what they look like now.

Bottom line: bad tax policy means inefficient allocation of capital and that is detrimental to economic growth.

17 posted on 11/29/2009 10:07:11 AM PST by SonOfDarkSkies
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To: SonOfDarkSkies
My point is that a strong economy will produce the tax revenues need to begin to pay down the deficit particularly if spending is significantly reduced.

More accurately, you pay down debt, but lower or eliminate the deficit.

18 posted on 11/29/2009 10:08:09 AM PST by Ted Grant
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To: blam
Subprime Dubai

an interesting article HERE. Two interesting snips:
1) The circumstances behind Dubai's moves are murky, making it hard to gauge the exact risk to the pertaining bonds and Dubai's own general creditworthiness. UBS cautioned that Dubai's overall debt "might be higher" than the generally assumed $80 billion to $90 billion, due to potential off-balance sheet liabilities. These could include unlimited and unquantifiable amount of credit default swaps (CDS) and other derivatives against the underlying assets, and once unraveled, could potentially erupt into a subprime-like crisis.
2) Rational expectations or not, for now, the Dubai crisis is simply a reminder that the severe global recession has relegated much debt to near junk status, and there still remains a high degree of uncertainty as to the percentage recoverable on all outstanding debt which is going to be coming due over the next 5 years.

Dubai is the tip of the iceberg. I am not optimistic, cautiously or otherwise.

19 posted on 11/29/2009 10:25:49 AM PST by Oatka ("A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves." –Bertrand de Jouvenel)
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To: Ted Grant

Right! Thx for the correction!


20 posted on 11/29/2009 10:25:58 AM PST by SonOfDarkSkies
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