Actually we do know that the new cycle has begun. Turns out that the direction of the magnetic fields switch on cycle boundaries.
Further - with new detection capability that lets scientists look below the surface of the sun, they have found what they believe is the cause of the 11 year cycle. There appears to be a current below the surface that moves north then south then north again on an 11 year cycle.
There are sun spots occuring right now -but not very many.
Then the current is dying then.