Skip to comments.The Death Month is Coming: A Crushing Unemployment Number Is Due Out February 4, 2010
Posted on 12/10/2009 10:43:27 AM PST by FromLori
January is the death month as far as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is concerned. In January, in their bizarre data models, they kill off thousands of jobs. This January, they could knock off more than 800,000 jobs. Will the BLS figure out a way to fudge this huge negative January unemployment number that is scheduled to be released February 4, 2010? Here's John Crudele with the scoop on what's going on: The Labor Department is hurrying to correct inaccuracies in its monthly employment statistics that could cause the Obama administration big problems early next year.
Those corrections, however, will probably also eliminate the inevitable -- and unsubstantiated -- employment gains that come during springtime.
We now know that the job gains reported by Washington this past spring were an illusion.
Early in 2010 the Labor Department will subtract about 824,000 jobs from its official count in what is called a "benchmark revision" to more accurately reflect the jobs that weren't created this past spring.
I've already warned readers about the employment report for January that will be released on Feb. 4. And I've said this figure will be a disaster unless someone intervenes to correct the statistical aberration that will occur.
The Labor Department apparently now understands. And it appears ready to step in.
Here's the crux of the issue:
Each month the Labor Department guesses at the number of jobs being created by companies which it thinks -- but can't prove -- are newly formed. The department calls this the birth/death model.
Last April, for instance, the government estimated that new companies created 226,000 jobs. In May, the guess was 220,000 and in June 185,000.
Even in the depths of winter, the government added 134,000 jobs during February that turned out to be non-existent.
Those estimates are mainly the reason why the Labor Department now needs to revise downward by 824,000 the number of jobs it believes exist.
But the real problem for the Obama administration -- and the financial markets -- is the January figure that will be released in early February.
January is the only month in which the birth/death model shifts to the "death" side.
For whatever reason the model suddenly thinks that more companies are quietly going out of business than are being formed outside the view of Labor Department surveyors.
And there is no reason to believe the "death" side of the model is any more accurate than the "birth" side. Read more here.
Initial jobless claims rise 17,000 to 474,000
Total jobless claims, including extended benefits, top 10 million
Watch what happens when the disappointing Christmas retail sales and ending of seasonal employment figures come in. It’s going to be a very cold Feb. for 0bama.
The fan will be hit with a gooey smelly mess and all I can say is OMAMA’S FAULT
The Labor Department doesn’t have to make any “benchmark revision”. They been lying all this year, so why stop?
From the explanation, the jobs never existed and were only guessed at. If they lop off non-existent jobs, why the fuss?
The February Figures will be: Unicorns and Rainbows!
I bet they sell the 824,000 revisions to the warmers so they can add them into the climate data! /s
If we enter a serious double-dip recession, Obama will call for emergency powers. I think it’s been the plan all along, and Feb. seems as good a time as any.
Headlines from MSM for February-2010:”Unemployment rate at 13%!BETTER than expected!
I had to laugh but you are right that is what happens all the time.
No matter how bad the unemployment numbers are:
1) President Obama will blame GW Bush
2) the media will attack Sarah Palin.
3) Hollywood Oscar talk will be in full frenzy
4) American Idol will be on
5) Super Bowl hype everywhere
Unemployment drops from 10% to 13%
Winston? Izzat you?
Chris Matthews and Keith [D]Oberman will continue to praise the Messiah while getting more tingles up their legs.
I’m not fussing, I don’t believe them anyway.
I love this conutry but fear that these crooks will do one of two things: 1.) rig everything to support Obummers lying, (more bread and circus) or 2.) use the horrible numbers to enact emergency powers. Unfortunately i see #2 as the likely outcome, enforced by your friendly neighborhood SEIU and ACORN brown shirts. I hope everyone has their freeze dried food and plenty of ammo on hand, esepcially near the major Amish population centers
I always thought that was part of the reason for whacked january numbers, yet it’s not mentioned in this article.(that I could see)
They’ll hire three million people for the census and 2.5 million will be no-show jobs.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.