Do Not Count Sarah Palin Out for 2012 (Begrudging admiration from a Democratic insider)

Democrats in general and liberals in particular make a terrible mistake in underestimating Sarah Palin. In a sense, I have a proprietary interest in her, because of my August 3, 2008 memo to Obama strategists warning that the Republicans might well choose a woman for Vice-President if we chose a man (my first choice for Veep on the Obama ticket, my admiration and respect for Joe Biden not withstanding, was Governor Kathleen Gilligan Sebelius of Kansas, originally suggested by one of the few brilliant bankers I know, Matthew Hickey, an Ohio native. Kathleen Sebelius’s father, Jack Gilligan was Governor of Ohio in the 1970s).

The Republicans had the luxury of choosing their vice-presidential candidate after we chose ours and I knew of Governor Palin only because I had travelled to Alaska the summer of of 2007. She was the most conservative of the Republican women who might be possibilities and the fact that she was a Governor (not a Senator) added another useful attribute, which is why she was listed first among the possibilities in my memo.

There is no doubt that the surprise choice of Governor Palin gave McCain a huge short term advantage. Ultimately, she may have done more than any other person in ‘herding’ Democratic women back to the Democratic fold, though Hillary did more than should have reasonably been expected from her, and her conduct as Secretary of State has been an unbelievable model, both for her hard work, and her obviously careful attempt not to steal any of the limelight from President Obama; but despite that Sarah Palin, she did prove herself a huge crowd getter for the Republicans all the way to the end.

Sarah Palin is something that none of the other political contenders in the GOP are: a certified celebrity. Only Messrs. Limbaugh, Hannity and Beck, the three most successful college dropouts in America after Bill Gates can vie with her for the public’s attention. Pawlenty and Romney, even Giuliani, Gingrich and Huckabee have nowhere near her star power.

The fact that she is no longer Governor of Alaska is not hurting her one whit. In fact, I made the argument before she resigned that that is what she needed to do. First of all, as Governor she was a sitting target. More importantly she had dozens, even hundreds of invitations to speak around the country, both party speeches on the rubber chicken and tea bag circuit, as well as the very remunerative speeches to national conventions and association meetings. Obviously she couldn’t command the $150,000 that former President Bill Clinton gets, but I’m sure she is getting at least $25,000 or $50,000 to speak to the warehouse owners association or groups like that. All she needs is half a dozen of engagements like that and she’s made more than her salary as Governor, without any of the aggravation either associated with contentious issues, or the criticism for leaving the state. Furthermore as Governor she couldn’t accept fees for speaking engagements, and whether she was travelling for political or monetary reasons (or more likely both), she would have to take at least a full day off for any single engagement. If she went East for example, she would lose three hours in time changes going, and if returning on a red eye, would arrive the next morning semi exhausted.

She has her book, ‘Going Rogue’ as an excuse for travelling. She is welcome on every late night and early morning talk show. She is a an ardent conservative, but has demonstrated an infectious civility that transcends partisanship as revealed on the Oprah show. She is the number one choice for Republican and conservative organizations across the country.

She’ll do great at state and county fairs. I envision her doing a ‘dressing a deer’ demonstration, or brining turkeys with John Kass. (Dressing deer will demonstrate that her repertoire includes more than caribou, elk and moose. Like our President she is a person people are happy to meet even if they violently disagree with her. So don’t be surprised when she starts traveling. Whether she’s folding parachutes or bandages with the troops, or having lunch with presidents, prime ministers and leaders of the opposition she will make sure she is really educated on international issues while getting reams of publicity in the process. And this will giver another book: “I have seen Russia (and seventeen other countries too!)”

What really convinced me this gal had a chance wasn’t her clever rollout on Oprah’s show to start her book tour, but the fact that Tom Roeser, Chairman of this online publication and a very intelligent conservative with whom I disagree 87.3% of the time wrote last week that he could support her candidacy. I think Roeser’s judgment of Obama is incorrect, but he would never support anyone for President who he didn’t believe had the basic ‘necessities.’ I would never vote for Sarah Palin, but I wouldn’t bet against her either, though it galls me to admit it.

While I believe that President Obama will win re-election in 2012 he can only count on 241 of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win. It will be tough for Sarah ‘Annie Oakley’ Palin to get to the magic 270, but she could. Its not impossible. And 2012 is the only time she’ll have a chance. Its not smart to write her off. Remember we elected George W. Bush – twice.

Dear Smoking Joe,

You have fleshed out what I alluded to in my article. The most interesting thing about her traveling to these foreign countries is that she would be met by the top leaders, not second rankers, and not as a courtesy but because they are really curious about her, intrigued by her, enjoy her even if they don’t agree with her, want to take their picture with her, and might now think there is a plausible chance she might win. They really want to meet her.

There are 300,000,000 people in the United States. Anything she writes, whether its a memoir, collection of speeches, a book of recipes, a coffee table book on places she’s seen, and people she’s met, even a guide to Alaska will sell at least a 1,000,000 copies each. I had a dream the other night, or was it a nightmare, that she was being carried into the 2012 Republican Convention in Chicago (of all places) on a sedan chair, carried by Romney, Giulini, Huckabee and Pawlenty.

I wouldn’t be surprised if next summer she hangs out for a week in Alaska greeting cruise ship passengers as they come off the boat. As far as tourism to Alaska is concerned, I am sure there will be a ‘Palin effect’. I hope Wasilla is ready for the curious onslaught.

Of course in politics one week can be an eternity, but I don’t Sarah Palin making any major mistakes. She will not become overexposed, nor will she disappear from public view.

I think your remarks were right on target.

Cheers to you and Merry Christmas,

Phil Krone

Thank you for the post 2ndDivisionVet. Thanks to you also Mr. Krone for dropping by to discuss the article with us.

To my way of thinking, the Democrats were not the only ones who underestimated Sarah Palin. McCain's own team was shocked to see her become an instant celebrity on the campaign team. At times it seemed as if Palin had taken over the day to day appearances, and McCain's voice was hardly heard, other than when he glanced at Sarah and said something nice, to an instant eruption of cheers and applause. It's my take that Palin was worth a five to ten point increase in McCain's final vote count. (if I weren't talking to you, I might even say fifteen points) I was not a McCain supporter by any stretch of the imagination, and I saw many comments from people who felt pretty much the same way who did vote for him due to Palin being on the ticket.

Palin's main drawing card to the McCain camp, was her overt Conservatism. She was precisely the counter-balance needed for the McCain ticket. Not having a large national following, I think the team thought she would be a much more subdued counter-balance, but still a useful appointment for proving John wasn't the Leftist many saw him as being. Surpriiiiise. And yes, it did continue to the end of the 2008 campaign, and even beyond.

You addressed the dynamic of Palin chasing women back to the Democrat camp. I didn't see you mention the women who stood up amidst the Democrat camp to decry the treatment of Palin from the press. I'm not convinced that Palin didn't sap some women's votes from the left, although I'd be careful not to give that broad play. Some women did see her as someone they could get behind and support just because she was a capable successful woman.

When you mentioned Secretary of State Clinton, I couldn't help but reflect on the use of czars in the Obama administration. In certain ways, the old Department head model has been broken, with czars siphoning off conventional power from people like Clinton. How much of that is taking place, is difficult to pin down accurately, but it's my perception that it is a valid dynamic. And to the extent that dynamic is in play, it contributes to the volume of Hillary Clinton's voice being turned down.

I agree with your mention of Palin's drawing power as compared to other current political challengers to her. She is a star, which is nice, but I see that as being a potential problem as well. Palin is not ready to be president today. She needs to travel and meet with foreign leaders. I do hope she has studied up on her understanding of the history and germane issues of the day before doing so. We want her to be seen as a strong intelligent woman, who respects other nations enough to inform herself about them prior to visiting.

If Palen perceives that she is capable of winning the presidency handily, she may forgo some of the things that would make her a better candidate and president. That's my only caveat on the star power issue. Undoubtedly, she need that star power too, so well and good that she has it.

When it comes to her stepping down, I'm going to have to admit to a bit of skepticism regarding your comments. Sarah's best resume enhancer was her executive experience as the Governor of Alaska. Her stepping down under fire will instantly give her detractors some credence when they claim she couldn't take the heat. Both you and I know what she was up against in Alaska, with all the frivolous suits being leveled against her, but that won't stop the very people who leveled those suits or liked those tactics, from trashing Palin because she resigned. It's going to be raised as an issue as surely as you and I need to breathe to live. Those who raise it, may or may not agree with you that it was wise of her to step down, but we won't be seeing that mentioned during the attacks.

As for the rubber chicken circuit et al, I agree that she has a gold mine there. I also agree that she is going to be welcomed by foreign leaders for curiosity's sake if nothing else. And I agree that's a good thing for her to do, and that it is a great thing that she will have this opportunity. Nixon rehabbed his image by doing much the same thing, prior to running after losing to Kennedy in 1960. It worked. It was another good resume enhancer.

Unlike you, I was convinced that Palin had a chance when I saw the public's reaction to her. You can't buy that type of support, and many have tried.

I will have to take one more exception to your comments, in that I do not think Obama has a prayer of being re-elected in 2012. I don't say that with ill will. I just think the perception of the Independent swing voter is that Obama is not the wonderful leader they had envisioned him to be. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but that's certainly my take on things today.

His read of public opinion regarding the health bill and essentially taking the issue to the matt, was a politically fatal mistake IMO.

Folks don't think health care is the most pressing need in this nation today. Jobs continue to hemorrhage, and that doesn't appear to be his first concern. People know the stimulus bill wasn't about creating jobs, and that the $800 billion was used more for politics than job creation. And now the president is poised to allow upwards of tens of millions of foreign nationals continue to hold jobs in the U.S., while our unemployment figure is in excess of 10%.

Honesty, as a Conservative I couldn't have choreographed this better myself. It seems to me the Democrats are driving away supporters in droves. I'll understand if you disagree, but it seems to me Obama's team is in serious trouble. 2010 looms large here, and I would not want to be positioned where you folks are today, with that election season shaping up right now.

Look, I appreciate your comments here. Later...

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