Here are a few points of evidence in addition to the problems with the Bulava ballistic missile already discussed.
-- The submarine Kursk sank in August of 2000 during a test of a defective and notoriously dangerous new model of torpedo. All aboard died, although most would likely have been saved if a prompt modern rescue effort had been mounted.
-- The Russian shipbuilding industry cannot produce a new assault ship or reliably modernize their own ships. Russia is seeking to buy a Mistral assault ship from France and has left India waiting for delivery of a refitted Soviet era aircraft carrier under a contract signed in 2004. The vessel is already two years late, the work has doubled in price, and is unlikely to be completed before 2012.
-- Russia has bought unmanned drone aircraft from Israel because domestic manufacturers lack the capability to develop their own models.
-- In 2007, Algeria tore up a contract with Russia and returned 15 Mig-29 fighter jets after complaining about their “inferior quality.” Russian aircraft have long been known for poor reliability and quality control, but rejection by a traditional customer marks a new low.
-- Russia's lagging fifth generation fighter project now requires the participation of India as a research and production partner. In light of problems with other Russian arms deals, the Indians are insisting on significant technology transfer.
-- China, which has bought much in the way of weapons and military equipment from Russia, is developing improved versions and substitutes. These are likely to capture a large slice of Russia's arms export earnings to China and other countries.
-- Russia's August 2008 conflict with Georgia exposed many problems with Russia's military, from troop and officer quality to shortcomings in weapons and equipment. The government permitted public reporting of these problems so as to spur reform efforts.
-- The Georgian conflict showed Russia's weapons, communication systems, and electronic warfare assets to be obsolete and in many cases unchanged since Soviet times. One soldier was quoted with approval as saying that "The equipment is for parades, but unfit for battle."
(2) Russia's imperialism and trouble making
Russia's attack on Georgia, the setting up of Ossetia and Abkhazia as client statelets, and the bullying and suborning of neighbors contradicts your assurances. Russia's swaggering siloviki have not reconciled themselves to the loss of empire due to the breakup of the Soviet Union and want to remake it in new form. In addition, control of the oil riches of the Caspian Sea basis is a tempting target.
In a replay of a Soviet era strategy, Russia aims to dominate Europe by becoming its primary energy supplier. In addition, by supplying Iran with weapons and nuclear technology, Russia hopes to keep the price of oil high and uncertain, thereby increasing the value of Russia' energy resources.
These strategies increase the risk of war in the Mid East and of conflicts on Russia's borders. By making Mid East oil supplies insecure, Russia also risks alienating China. As the poor performance of Russia's military in the Georgian war suggests, Russia's ambitions may exceed the grasp conferred by its conventional forces. And by spurring Iran's nuclear ambitions, Russia increases the chances that her neighbors will also develop nuclear weapons as a counter to Iran.
What if the EU develops energy resources that make it independent of Russia? What if a nuclear armed Iran demands concessions from Russia in favor of her Muslim neighbors to the south? Or a Turkey with nuclear tipped missiles demands preferential access to Caspian oil? Or Poland acquires a similar nuclear capacity and aligns with China, the Ukraine, the Baltic states, and other neighbors against Russia?
Russia would be far better served by developing her own economy and conciliating with the West and her neighbors. Of course, this would require systemic reforms that would imperil the hold that Putin and his allies have over Russia.
(3) Russia's corrupt, predatory governing elite.
Corruption is endemic in Russia, with Putin at the top of the heap. He is publicly reported by Russian sources to have a personal fortune of 40 billion dollars in cash and shareholdings in Switzerland and Lichtenstein. The information about Putin's wealth is believed to have originated from Medvedev's circle.
The respected anti-corruption organization Transparency International ranks Russia at 146 in the world, the same level of corruption as Cameroon, Ecuador , Kenya, Sierra Leone, Timor-Leste, Ukraine, and Zimbabwe.
Getting and keeping ill gotten wealth in Russia requires determined thuggery. The ascent of Putin and his allies to control of Russia was facilitated by the bombings of apartment blocks in Moscow, Buinakrsk, and Volgadonsk in 1999, causing the deaths of hundreds of ordinary Russians. Although blamed on Chechen terrorists, there is much evidence that these bombings were the work of the FSB in order to help install Putin in power.
Putin has nearly eliminated press freedom, weakened parliament, seized control over the courts, and undermined free elections and eliminated elections for regional governors. In the past decade, at least 17 journalists in Russia have been murdered after reporting critically on the Kremlin. The dead include internationally acclaimed Novaya Gazeta journalist Anna Politkovskaya and Forbes Russia editor Paul Klebnikov. Attorneys and businessmen are also frequently murdered with impunity in Russia.
Foreign residence is no protection against murders openly directed from the Kremlin against regime critics. In November 2006, Alexander Litvinenko, a former secret agent turned Putin critic, was poisoned with radioactive polonium that was traced to Russian agents with close tied to Putin. Since polonium is expensive and requires a reactor to produce, there can be no question but that the murder of Litvinenko was approved at the highest levels.
William Browder, an American investor in Russia, the grandson of famous American communist and a Russian woman, and a former Putin ally, recently wrote in the Financial Times that:
Russia is not a “state” as we understand it. Government institutions have been taken over as conduits for private interests, some of them criminal. . . . The sharks have started to feed on their own blood.
Browder's Russian lawyer was imprisoned and, after refusing to provide false testimony against his client, was permitted to die through medical neglect.
(4) Russia’s demographic decline
Russians experience abnormally high mortality from chronic ailments: heart disease, cancer, stroke, and the like. In the rest of the developed world, death rates from these chronic diseases are low, relatively stable, and declining. In Russia, overall mortality levels are high, manifestly unstable, and rising.
Alcoholism and cigarette smoking are responsible for much of the chronic disease burden in Russia, but AIDS and tuberculosis are also rampant and poorly treated in Russia. Moreover, death from accidents and violence in Russia are at astonishing levels -- roughly the same as Angola, Burundi, Congo, Liberia, and Sierra Leone . Mortality from injury in Russia is like that found in impoverished sub-Saharan conflict and post-conflict societies.
In the context of high mortality, poor public health, and a weak medical system, the recent upward blip in Russian birth rates cannot remedy the country's demographic decline. U.S. Census Bureau data ranks Russia at 164 out of 226 countries globally in overall life expectancy.
This is below India and even Bolivia, which is South America’s poorest and least healthy country. For females, Russian life expectancy is less than Nicaragua, Morocco, or Egypt. For males, it is similar to Cambodia, Ghana, and Eritrea.
(5) Russia's dependency on oil and gas sales.
Economists note that when natural resource extraction dominates a country, it tends to suffer from a "resource curse" that leads to a corrupt, undemocratic regime and chronic underdevelopment of human capital and other parts of the economy. From that perspective, Russia pays a severe and disabling price for her oil and gas wealth.
Instead of the Putin model of letting a corrupt elite loot state enterprises and cementing themselves in power, Russia would be better served to reestablish democratic institutions. State enterprises should be privatized and oil, gas, and mineral concessions auctioned off in the manner of developed countries, with the revenues going directly and transparently into state coffers.
Public health, education, and transportation infrastructure should be primary spending priorities. Corruption and crime should be suppressed and property rights assured -- and especially so for foreign investors.
An alliance with Europe and the US would help assure Russian security and permit a redirection of military spending to civilian purposes. Russian military thinking needs to reorient from quantity to quality. Over time, a smaller Russian military and navy would be more professional and better trained and equipped against tangible security threats.
Instead of antagonizing the West and immediate neighbors, Russia should drop tariff and trade barriers so as to draw them closer economically and politically. Russia's size and resources would make themselves felt in a productive fashion. Foreign investment would help revitalize the Russian economy.
Of course, little if any of this will happen. The Russian tragedy continues.