The Real Price of the Senate Health Bill

By now Majority Leader Harry Reid's explanation for how he is getting his health-care bill through the Senate has pinged its way across the country. "I don't know if there is a senator that doesn't have something in this bill that was important to them," he said. "And if they don't have something in it important to them, then it doesn't speak well of them." But take these comments two steps further and it becomes clear that how Mr. Reid reached unanimity in his caucus could hurt Democrats more than they realize.

First, taking Mr. Reid at his word means every Democratic senator got something. That implies there are even more howlers to discover that will dog Democrats next year...

...any Democrat who assumes that it's OK to pass a bad bill because it includes a good deal for them is missing a larger dynamic of the Senate. When costs balloon, as they will, Congress will have to revisit health care. When it does, it will have little incentive to cut deals with individual senators ...

There are two deals that won't be going away any time soon. One comes from Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester and extends Medicare to anyone exposed to a health hazard subject to a federal emergency declaration as of June 17, 2009. That would be people who live near the Libby, Mont., superfund site. Even a revenue-hungry Congress will find repealing that unpalatable...giving out special Medicare coverage is a dangerous precedent.

The other deal exempts insurance policies provided to longshoremen from the 40% excise tax slapped on "Cadillac" health-care plans. Unless the influence of the longshoremen's union wanes, this perk is about as permanent as you'll find in politics....

DAY ONE: HOW OBAMACARE WILL ALIENATE AMERICANS
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published on DickMorris.com on December 22, 2009

Obama’s health care bill, the poisoned Kool-Aid making its way through the Senate, will not confer any of its supposed benefits on Americans until 2013. But they will find themselves chafing at its restrictions and paying its taxes immediately after the law takes effect. Then, they will see no gain, but plenty of pain, for the next three years.

This odd juxtaposition of “suffer now, benefit later” is the byproduct of the Administration’s sleight of hand in specifying ten years worth of cuts and taxes in the legislation, but deferring its benefits for the first four years. By comparing six years of spending with ten years of taxing, it managed to appear deficit neutral under the rules of the Congressional Budget Office. In fact, the annual revenues fall far short of covering any single year’s worth of spending, adding to the deficit for each of the last six years over the next ten, but, viewing the decade as a whole, it appears deficit neutral.

Yet the political price is hardly neutral. Democrats who misguidedly vote for this monstrosity will face immediate political repercussions.

The harshest of these backlashes will come from the elderly who will suddenly visit their doctors and be told “no” when they ask for therapies or treatments. The rationing of medical care will start immediately on enactment and, one hopes, the outraged phone calls will start to descend on those whose votes enabled it.

The first “no” will hit the ten million elderly who now rely on Medicare Advantage to pay for the care Medicare itself does not cover. In a payoff to AARP, Obama gutted this program in his bill, ending over $100 billion in federal premium subsidies. These ten million voters will get the grim news that their premiums are going up and their benefits dropping early in 2010. The goal, of course, is to force them to drop Medicare Advantage and sign up, instead, for Medigap insurance — offered, not coincidentally, by the AARP — which provides less coverage at higher cost.

Young people without health insurance can expect to start writing $750 annual checks to Washington to pay the fines written into the bill. (And, after the Conference Committee finishes its work, the fines may be higher).

All Americans will soon find their insurance premiums rising as a result of the bill. The young, uninsured will not buy policies. Why should they? Why not just pay the $750 fines each year? Why pay between 2% and 10% of their household income before subsidies kick in? It makes no financial sense for anyone making more than $30,000 to pay for coverage. (And most of those under that threshold will be covered by Medicaid, not by private insurance).

There is no reason for the young to buy private insurance. The legislation requires that health insurers take all comers and not raise rates based on pre-existing conditions. So the young can get coverage when they need it, having only paid $750 per year beforehand.

The difference in cost will, of course, be borne by families throughout America who will see their health insurance premiums increase. President Obama and his Democratic rubber stamps may appreciate that they are not raising taxes on the middle class, just raising mandatory health insurance premiums, but the distinction is likely to be lost on swing voters.

From now on, any increase in health insurance premiums will become the political responsibility of the Obama Administration. As General Colin Powell once said of Iraq “You break it. You own it.” Since these premiums have been rising by an average of 10% per year for more than the past decade, this is a legacy most politicians would sensibly avoid if they could.

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WINSTON CHURCHILL: “NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER GIVE UP”
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published on DickMorris.com on December 21, 2009

If they beat us in the Senate, we will fight them in conference. If they beat us in conference, we will fight them in the House. If they beat us in the House over healthcare, we will fight them over cap and trade. We will fight them over immigration and amnesty. We will fight them over the deficit. We will fight them over the debt. And we will fight them in 2010. We will fight them in the House. We will fight them for Senate seats in Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New York, and Arkansas. We will fight them in Colorado and North Dakota and California and Washington State. We will fight them in Illinois and in New Jersey. We will never, never, never, never give up! Our country is at stake!

All our defeats do is to teach us the futility of appealing to moderate Democrats and the necessity - the dire necessity - of replacing them with committed Republicans. There is no such thing as a moderate Democrat in Congress. There are simply those whose votes the leadership does not need in order to promote its socialist agenda.

We will not place our faith in the Nelsons or the Lincolns or the Liebermans or the Landrieus of the Senate. Nor in the Blue Dogs of the House. All we do when we depend on them is to permit them to raise their price and up the ante for their vote. We will place our faith only in the Republicans who oppose them and who will bring the collective insanity which has gripped Washington to an end.

But we will continue to fight each battle in Congress because it is only by blunting Obama’s momentum and by demonstrating to the voters of America how their Democratic members of Congress are only automatic votes for socialism that we have a chance to triumph in 2010. And triumph we will. We can only hope that there is still a country to take back!

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That's an interesting one. I wonder how long you have to live near Libby, Mont. to qualify? Could someone move their for 2 months, qualify, and then move away and maintain their qualification, or is it only while they live there?

And if they can't move away and keep it, that means that the Democrats have just created a very NON-PORTABLE health insurance coverage, for everybody who lives in Billings.

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