Posted on 01/05/2010 11:11:27 AM PST by UncleVanya
According to Intrade.com, which uses a trading system to forecast likelihood of events, it is better than 50-50 odds that Republicans will gain 30 seats in the House in the 2010 elections:
http://electoralmap.net/2010/house_seats.php
[Note: Contracts which are trading below the 50/50 mark are shaded a lighter red. Contracts above that mark are shaded dark red. This shading helps visualize the threshold between events that are not forecasted to happen and events that are. Historically the party in power loses seats during mid-term elections, and 2010 looks to be no exception. Intrade is in concurrence with major polls which forecast a Republican gain in seats, but with in a prediction market, traders aren't just answering a pollster's questions -- they are putting their money where their mouth is.]
BUT WE MUST DO BETTER THAN THAT. This will still leave Nancy Pelossi in charge.
IT IS CRITICAL THAT YOU GET INVOLVED THIS YEAR EVEN IF IT IS FOR THE FIRST TIME. Give money, even a little. Give time, as much as you can. Call, write, make your voice heard. Get at least two other people involved with you.
IT MAY BE YOUR LAST CHANCE TO VOTE FOR SOMEBODY WHO IS NOT AN OBAMANIST SHILL.
It was 65 in 1994, pass health care rationing I say more in 2010.
I’ll bet on 55. Nice return and I think it’ll happen.
Don’t pass healthcare - 45 seats.
Pass it - 65 seats.
We also need to gain at least 5 seats (preferrably 10 or more) in the Senate.
I agree. It’s just flat time to STFU and fight back. Bitching and doom and gloom ain’t gonna get anyone anywhere.
Support conservative candidates. If the GOP candidate ain’t conservative, promote a Tea Party candidate. All that matters is who they caucus and vote with, and make sure it’s not Pelosi.
And if that don’t work for ya, start buying food and ammo and wait for the revolution.
But for the love of God, GET OFF YOUR ARSE AND DO SOMETHING!
that’s about how I see it...
But if unemployment gets worse, which it very might, then we be back to 65+ and lots of ads with Democrats saying dumb things about the miracle of porkulus before it passed.
It is afterall “the economy stupid” and Democrats can’t see that.
BTTT
Provided, of course, that Republicans maintain the same unity of purpose that they have (finally!) displayed these last several months. And I wouldn't bet on that until I saw it....
I’m sorry folks, but I’ve got to invoke the “Redskins Rule” with regards to the GOP.
While victory seems assured, at some point, well before the end of the game, they’ll stop playing football making the 2010 elections - at the most optimistic - an knuckle-biting event.
This maybe valid prediction, if and only if Universal Voter Registration is STOPPED.
See this previous post for more info -> What the Dems know that we don’t: Universal Voter Registration
I do not think the politicians, pundits, bureaucrats, media and all other elitists realize what is coming. And it won’t be about loving the Republican party. It will be about slapping the Democrats and BO upside the proverbial, political head.
I know the number of senators we need to take control. How many that are up for election could actually go republican?
I don’t know how many republicans we have in the house currently. I would like to know how many we currently have, and then what’s the likelihood of us getting a majority back.
The Democrats are planning to rig the system.
If we can get the senate, we can shut down his Supreme Court threat as well.
Wouldn’t that be nice!
30 is far far too low... maybe what the odds makers are saying, but short of a change in the dynamics, which obviously can happen in 10 months, it will be far above 30 in the house.
The dems might hold onto a slim majority, but Pelosi will not win re-election as speaker even if they do.
Lose 12 seats? You are smoking some good gonja man.
The ‘Pubbies ain’t called the The Stupid Party for nothing. There is no advantage they can’t squander, no Victory from which they cannot pull a Defeat.
Currently, the Republican National Congressional Committee is running way behind on fund-raising. A large part is probably due to the current economic situation, but some is almost certainly due their tendency to pit RINOs against conservatives (hint: if you have money for politics, send it to the candidate, not the RNCC). Add to that the upcoming tidal wave of vote fraud (look up “Universal Voter Registration”) and things actually look pretty bad. While its pretty likely the ‘Pubbies will pick up seats, I wouldn’t bet on 30.
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