More Favorable Ratings for Two in Ohio

CQ Politics ^ | 1/5/2010 | Greg Giroux

[markomalley]

CQ Politics is changing the race ratings of two contests in southwestern Ohio to reflect more favorable political circumstances for Republicans Steve Chabot, a former congressman seeking to reclaim his seat, and Jean Schmidt , who’s running for a third full term in the adjacent 2nd District.

CQ Politics is shifting Ohio’s 1st district to Tossup from Leans Democratic, meaning that there is no early favorite in a 2010 matchup between Chabot and Democratic Rep. Steve Driehaus , who in 2008 ended Chabot’s quest for an eighth term in a banner Democratic year.

The 2010 race should be very competitive, and perhaps even closer than the five-point margin by which Driehaus prevailed. Driehaus now is in the strengthened position of incumbency, though that edge could be blunted by a less favorable political environment for Democrats at the midpoint of President Obama’s term.

Chabot has shown an ability to win votes outside the Republican base; even in losing to Driehaus in 2008, he ran a few points ahead of Republican presidential nominee John McCain . As a former House member, Chabot has been able to raise campaign funds more effectively than other challenger candidates.

Driehaus was aided in 2008 by a robust turnout among African-Americans, who comprise 27 percent of the 1st District’s population. It will be challenging for the Democrats to match that success in a lower-turnout midterm election year.

Driehaus would obviously benefit from an improved economy and an uptick in Obama’s popularity rating; the president won Ohio’s 1st by 11 percentage points in the 2008 election. As they did two year agos, Democrats will criticize some of Chabot’s votes and link him to the policies of unpopular former President George W. Bush .

CQ Politics also is shifting the rating in Ohio’s 2nd district to Likely Republican from Leans Republican, a more favorable rating for Schmidt. Though Schmidt has struggled to put away a decidedly conservative-leaning district that should be easy for a Republican to defend, the Democrats have had some early bumps in their quest to unseat her.

CQ Politics is altering the rating in part because of the departure in late November of state Rep. Todd Book, whom Democratic officials had promoted conservative-leaning rural areas well east of Cincinnati. The only Democrat in the race is David Krikorian, who received 18 percent of the 2008 vote as an independent candidate against Schmidt, who defeated Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin by 45 percent to 37 percent.

Democratic officials say that other candidates are mulling the race. CQ Politics will watch those developments closely.

To follow the 2010 House races, check out our election map.

[markomalley]

I have always thought that CQ's predictions tended a bit left, so them moving markers a little bit to the right is some good news.

[Servant of the Cross]

Your instincts about CQ are accurate.

I'm in Ohio's 2nd District. Jean Schmidt is a shoe-in to keep her seat. This is Rob Portman's old seat and it is a GOP lock.

In D1, Driehaus is toast. He barely beat Chabot in '08 and it was due to the obama coattails, voter turnout and general Ohio GOP idiocy. He ran as a fiscal conservative and social moderate and has voted as a Nancy boy. He stands no chance to retain his seat.

[TonyInOhio]

I have always thought that CQ's predictions tended a bit left, so them moving markers a little bit to the right is some good news.

Agreed. If you believe their map, they show Nazi Pelosi only losing 14-18 seats. Seems wildly optimistic.

[Recovering_Democrat]

What about the Hussein Voter Fraud factor?

[libs_kma]

"In D1, Driehaus is toast. He barely beat Chabot in '08 and it was due to the obama coattails, voter turnout and general Ohio GOP idiocy. He ran as a fiscal conservative and social moderate and has voted as a Nancy boy. He stands no chance to retain his seat."

You're absolutely right, FRiend! I'm in D1 Ohio and I've always been an informed voter, but I'm taking an active part this year and volunteering for Steve Chabot. He's an honorable man and an excellent Politician. By that I mean he's stll as down to earth as can be.

I've talked to Mr Chabot at Restaraunts, local parades, festivals, and he is a true champion of the people.

If I can't get behind his campaign and help out by giving a little of my time then shame on me.

Driehaus IS toast...and we're going to toast his @$$ so bad in 2010 even ACORN can't help him!