I know DC and it’s people. If this is put to a vote in DC, the queers will win. Not that there arent some good people in DC, it’s just that they are in the minority. You have to remember this is Marion Barry’s town.
You do realize that Hizonner the Mayor for Life voted against the bill, don't you? See this WaPo article that talks about it.
See, I'm not so sure that such a measure would pass if it were put on a ballot for a referendum. While it is true that the queers have a lot of power in the city, frankly, they only make up about 7-8% of the population. Blacks make up about 55-60% of the population.
Almost 100% of the Black preachers are opposed to this gay marriage bill. And the Catholic Archdiocese has come down against it (in stronger terms than I've ever heard Wuerl say anything).
So here's how I see it going down:
The Blacks and Hispanics and Orientals will come down against it by about 75% - 25% (if not more).
White Catholics will be fairly evenly split 50%-50%. (Those who are more Catholic than Democratic would be against it and those who are more Democratic than Catholic would be in favor of it...especially if they could prove they are independent of the Catholic hierarchy)
White Seculars working in government will be in favor of it about 75%-25%.
Academics will be in favor of it about 90%-10%. (With 4 universities in the town (G-town, GWU, Howard, CUA), that is not an insignificant number of people)
So bottom line is that I think if everybody was to vote, it would fail by about 60%-40%.
So, then, the question comes down to turnout. And I think the black pastors are absolutely energized by this and I think that they would have a HUGE turn-out-the-vote campaign (moreso than what they had for BO even).
Of course, the 33,000 queers in DC would all turn out, but I'm not sure how energized those who would sympathize with them would be ("sure, I want to see gay marriage, but, House is on tonight")