SC-5 will almost certainly go Republican in the first election after Spratt retires, but why wait for that?
The district is becoming, more each year, a suburban Charlotte district. All counties surrounding Mecklenburg (Charlotte’s county) , most in NC but also including York and Lancaster in SC-5, vote strongly GOP at the Presidential level; SC-5 went for W. twice, and for McCain.
Spratt, for reasons unclear to me, hasn’t drawn strong candidates in opposition, but Mulvaney may be an exception. Spratt remains the favorite, due to his long tenure and name recognition, but an upset is not out of the question. Mulvaney needs to tie Spratt to Pelosi, again and again.
I think Spratt has begun drawing stronger opponents, but the last couples cycles have been too rough nationally to really get the seat in play. This year is quite a bit different.
The main reason Spratt hasn’t received much of a challenge is that the SCGOP hasn’t had much of a farm system in the area, from what I can tell. My understanding is that Mulvaney is the first Republican to win that House and now Senate seat in York/Lancaster.