Get Ready For 11% Unemployment In January

Business Insider ^ | 01/11/10 | David Kotok

[TigerLikesRooster]

Get Ready For 11% Unemployment In January

David Kotok | Jan. 11, 2010, 3:11 PM

To be blunt: in our view the jobs data were plainly miserable and disappointing.

Like many of our readers, I listened to the debate on CNBC and read numerous analyses. We will set aside the perennial optimists who find positive outcomes in any data set. Simply put: a 10% unemployment rate and a 17.3% underemployment rate are two extremely serious numbers.

They help explain the market’s immediate reaction, which was a Treasury bond price rally and a drop in the 2-year note yield to an intraday low of 0.936%.

/snip

Let’s dig a little deeper into the jobs situation. We expect the January report is going to be a startling one when it is released in early February. It will be the first time we will see the full results of the annual revisions of the benchmarks used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The revisions will show that there was a net job loss in the United States for the entire decade. We guess the net loss will be about 1 million.

Furthermore, the number of discouraged workers who have left the labor force and the true size of the labor force will be better estimated once the revisions are public. Also, the differences between the two survey methods used to determine these statistics may become clear. They will show that if the labor force figure included those who would be genuinely seeking jobs were they not discouraged. We believe the revised figures will indicate the true unemployment rate might be closer to 11% than 10%.

Some of the details in the report show how severe things are. The unemployment rate for college graduates hit a new all-time high of 5%.

[wombtotomb]

freezing my butt off in south florida, but mail orders are a definate possibility :)

[same old song]

Hey now, don’t lump us all together. :P

Contrary to popular belief, there are college students that didn’t vote for Obama, like myself. But that doesn’t mean I won’t reap what the rest of my generation sowed, unfortunately.

It’s very frustrating knowing that I probably won’t be able to find work after I graduate, due to other people’s poor decisions. (I am finishing up a Physics/Business degree. No Art History or Women’s Studies here.)

[cherry]

...they also don't include the many people who are working less than full time...hours cut,etc....that would include my hubby......

but wombtotomb..you nailed it.....if we can learn to live simply we would probably all be happier....less bills coming in....less pressure....

good luck to you......prayers as well...

[cherry]

my mother could make pierogis and stuffed cabbage ..."halupki" in her sleep....

me....I have to really plan ahead....I never could get the cabbage leaves trimmed just right so they rolled up nice...

made pierogis for Christmas with my mothers picture on the refrigerator and I know she was staring down with near horror from heaven at my "technique"....:)

[wombtotomb]

Your technique is perfect, no doubt. It is your hands, lovingly creating a form of nourishment for your family. I know my mother (thankfully still with me, especially after a nasty bout of breast cancer) loves watching me make them when I am lucky enough to get a visit from her (a LOT of miles between us, but no distance at all :).

[HANG THE EXPENSE]

That is the otherside of the coin for sure.Hope you make it but you have to admit that most did vote for this did they not?It sucks for the rest of us out here as well in the small business world.Good luck to you.

[4woodenboats]

Looks like a Jon Cary “Help it’s on it’s way!” moment.