Posted on 01/12/2010 11:49:15 AM PST by blam
The Recession Is Over, The Economic Depression Just Beginning
Economics / Great Depression II
Jan 12, 2010 - 07:30 AM
By: Stephen Lendman
In late 2009, former Merrill Lynch economist, now with the Canadian firm, Gluskin Sheff, said the following:
"The credit collapse and the accompanying deflation and overcapacity are going to drive the economy and financial markets in 2010. We have said this repeatedly that this recession is really a depression because the (post-WW II) recessions were merely small backward steps in an inventory cycle but in the context of expanding credit. Whereas now, we are in a prolonged period of credit contraction, especially as it relates to households and small businesses."
Summarizing his 2010 outlook, Rosenberg highlighted asset deflation and credit contraction imploding "the largest balance sheet in the world - the US household sector" in the amount of "an epic $12 trillion of lost net worth, a degree of trauma we have never seen before," even after the equity bear market rally and "tenuous" housing recovery likely to be short-lived and illusory with a true bottom many months away.
As a result, consumer spending will be severely impacted. "Frugality is the new fashion and likely to stay that way for years," highlighting a secular shift toward prudence and conservatism because households are traumatized, tapped out, and mindful of a bleak outlook. It shows in new consumer credit data, contracting $17.5 billion in November, the largest monthly amount since 1943 record keeping began.
Surprisingly, only people over age 55 have experienced job growth. All others have lost jobs, can't get them, and for youths the "unemployment crisis (is) of epic proportions." In addition, there's a record number of Americans out of work for longer than six months, in part because the "aging but not aged" aren't retiring, and those who did are coming back, of necessity, to make up for wealth lost.
[snip]
This what I know for sure.
I as my family are much worse off in the last 10 months than we ever have been.
I know of not one person who can say they are better off than two years ago.
Now this recession should have been over by now but instead Bush was wrong with the bailout but then obama goes and doubles the bailouts and still is giving money to big companies while we’re being taxed and taxed and the lazy playstion sitting at home crowd continue to take out tax money while they drive their caddy’s to pick up their kids from school, whose kids I might add get free breakfast and lunch and then food stamps
obama has changed this economy I’ll give him that but he left us wht nothing but hope for another person to take over
mark
It’s not their fault, but ‘globalisation’ has meant that the American workforce has priced itself out of the market for any job that can be outsourced. No politician will dare to say it and neither will they say that it will not get better in the near or medium term. With labor costs in China etc. being a fraction of U.S.A. rates, someone is going to have to ‘think outside the box’ in order to create new work opportunities here.
i am better off
but i work for the government.
no, i am not proud, no i do not think it is a good thing for government workers to be well off.
There is absolutely nothing the rat party does that i do not detest.
the only good democrat is a dead one.
Thank goodness for reid.
That's far from impossible, but with the current government's (both "parties") penchant for punishing entrepreneurial activity, it's more likely that Americans with great product ideas will need to move to Asia to bring those products into existence.
Sorry to differ with you, but myself, and most people I know are better off today then they were two years ago, 10 months ago, etc.
I’m guessing the reason is I own and run my own business, as many of my friends and associates do as well.
When the ecomomy falters, as it often does, there are steps that can be taken to minimize the impact, and in fact profit from it.
When the economy is good, there are also steps to take to participate in the booming, while always being cautious of not “over-extending” ones self.
As I’ve posted many times before, during the real estate bubble years, I read many a post here from wanna-be real estate moguls who mistook the bull market in real estate for brains.
Rather then keep a balanced approach, they over leveraged themselves and chastised the rest of us for being “too stupid” to jump on the real estate riches train.
Most of my friends and I kept to our knitting and simply continued to do what made us successful in the first place, rather then trying to get richer.
Sure, I know of people who have suffered and who are worse off, and it’s very tragic. But most often the reasons were bad decisions, that unfortunately came home to roost.
I see this economy as a “tale of two economies”. The people who did it right, are still doing ok and maybe even doing better. Those who overleveraged, took on too much debt, suffered a layoff without having some savings, etc., are doing worse.
I also see this economy in context to past years; we’ve had a recession in this country in:
1974 (oil embargo), 7 years later in
1981 (Fed’s jacked interest rates to fight inflation), 8 years later in
1989 (S&L crisis), 11 years later in
2000 (internet bubble blow-up), 7 years later in
2007 (real estate bubble).
Notice a pattern???
It’s called an economic cycle, and since it has been fairly consistent, it’s wise to plan on it.
Good luck all.
good for you
here on my street we have 11 houses.
3 have lost their jobs, two have had hours cut and one has had forced early retirement.
around the corner both husband and wife have lost heir jobs in the last 3 months, around that corner one lost their house and another had to sell their house cheap.
Like I said I no of not one person who says they are well off as they were two years ago.
This economy is crap and obama has only ruined it more.
Also hotels have lost revenue and the county now is affected thus not as much money for other things
We live in an area where it’s all blue collar working class not the upper class elitist type so this economy is hitting us all hard here.
As for living we never eat out, we never order out and we always get store brands, plus no vacations here for anyone.
another thing ref your last few lines
No one here did anything wrong except work for companies which laid folks off, no one bought houses they could not afford as we have all had out houses for many years, no one did stupid investments.
We saved and saved that is all we have done for 15 years and we never have had even a honey moon yet as we wanted to put money away and get to work.
Guess you have that company where you are making money and in a place where people come to your place to give them your money.
But i tell you one thing and that is we did nothing wrong but work and save.
We don’t come from money and we don’t have parents with money infact I don;t have any parents so there’s no money on the horizon for us unlike some who get an inheritance.
If you’re better off under obama with your company then fine but no one here is.
As for my kids then they will hopefully be better off when obama leaves and they will get money from us when we die like the majority of folks who do.
most people are better off where you are.!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
where exactly are you?
Also planning for another recession, well that is what we have been doing and now we have to dip into savings
you might be better off and you say most are but I would suggest you look around at the folks who have been laid off from work and lost jobs, there’s millions of us.
That is no fault of us and it certainly has noting to do with saying we should plan for a a rainy day.
Agreed!
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