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Japan In Jeopardy
Forbes ^ | 1/22/2010 | Gordon G. Chang

Posted on 01/22/2010 11:22:07 PM PST by bruinbirdman

Nothing seems to be going the country's way at the moment.

Does anything work in Japan?

Certainly not the floundering economy. Analysts think it may have contracted by as much as 6% last year. If so, China's economy, which grew by 8.7% according to numbers released Jan. 21, zoomed past Japan to become the world's second largest.

How about Japan's biggest companies? Japan Airlines ( JALSY - news - people ), the nation's flag carrier, filed for bankruptcy Jan. 19.

It's no mystery how the once-mighty corporate giant, commonly known as JAL, collapsed. For one thing, Tokyo bureaucrats forced the airline to service little-used airports. A third of its 151 domestic routes had load factors below 50%. Load factors on only 11 of those routes exceeded 70%. JAL, in short, was used to keep local airports--and local economies--going. Eventually the carrier, in reality a social welfare agency with landing rights, could no longer stand the financial strain.

In one sense JAL's bankruptcy is a sign of progress. Instead of keeping the airline going indefinitely with additional government subsidies--in other words, instead of subsidizing a subsidizer--the government of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama decided to permit the bankruptcy. Yet Tokyo is still guiding the process. As a part of a complex prepackaged reorganization to shrink JAL, the Japanese government is providing $10 billion, two-thirds of which will be in credit lines and a third in a cash infusion.

"This is not the end of JAL," said Transport Minister Seiji Maehara on the announcement of the reorganization. "Today is the beginning of a process to keep JAL alive." Is that what Tokyo should be trying to do at this time? Japan, after all, needs one fewer airline.

Among other things. The country, unfortunately, is shrinking. There are 127 million Japanese today.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
"Due to one of the world's lowest fertility rates, Japan is in a "death spiral." Projections indicate the population will fall to 89 million by 2055. The Washington Post put it this way: "Japan is on course for a population collapse unlike any in human history." Whole regions are being depopulated with nature reclaiming abandoned villages. The largest cities seem to be thriving, but that's about it. "
1 posted on 01/22/2010 11:22:08 PM PST by bruinbirdman
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To: bruinbirdman

Any links, photos or supporting proofs for that?


2 posted on 01/22/2010 11:37:15 PM PST by 1010RD (First Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
Any links, photos or supporting proofs for that?

JAL's fictional exploits eclipse reality. In which a disgruntled 747 captain resets the USG.

3 posted on 01/22/2010 11:56:53 PM PST by cynwoody
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To: 1010RD

My wife and I took a trip to a hot springs town in Mie called Sakakibara Onsen. The town existed, but the people were nowhere to be seen. We were the second couple at the ryokan we stayed at, which housed no one but us on GOLDEN WEEK (the biggest vacation week of the year).

The reason, however, is that Japan developed so far into the country that when the investment/real estate bubble popped, all of the people related to the investments disappeared. I had an apartment next to a business hotel that housed NO ONE in 2000. It was simply locked and left to stand.

If Japan were to slash taxes and give their freeters (part timers) a reason to invest in businesses, they might pull out of their slump. They need to give people a reason to make money other than just to save or spend it on consumables. It’s too expensive to live there!


4 posted on 01/23/2010 12:09:19 AM PST by struggle ((The struggle continues))
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To: bruinbirdman

I can remedy that situation one night at a time.


5 posted on 01/23/2010 12:17:53 AM PST by lefty-lie-spy (Stay metal. For the Horde \m/("_")\m/ - via iPhone from Tokyo.)
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To: struggle

Japan needs Jesus.


6 posted on 01/23/2010 2:19:37 AM PST by Freedom'sWorthIt (Ronald Reagan: If we ever forget that we're one nation under God,then we'll be a nation gone under.")
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To: bruinbirdman

I feel sad about the demise of JAL. My experiences with them were positive and I’m still a member of their frequent flyer club. Maybe not now after the bankruptcy, I’m not sure.


7 posted on 01/23/2010 2:57:06 AM PST by altair (I hope he fails)
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To: Freedom'sWorthIt
Japan needs Jesus.

Thank God we nuked the only Christian city in Japan in WWII.

8 posted on 01/23/2010 3:01:06 AM PST by altair (I hope he fails)
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To: cynwoody

That’s not Executive Orders.

I believe you’re thinking of Debt of Honor:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_of_Honor


9 posted on 01/23/2010 3:33:54 AM PST by BobbyT
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To: BobbyT

I thought Clancy used the scenario twice, to end one book and to start the next. Captain Sato is assigned to fly a damaged, empty 747 from Washington to London. He knifes his copilot shortly before takeoff. Then he dives into the Capitol in the middle of a State of the Union address.


10 posted on 01/23/2010 8:53:11 AM PST by cynwoody
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To: struggle

Sounds like a fun trick and I appreciate the anecdote. My interest was just to see if there were any articles or websites devoted to Japan in the same way you see ones devoted to the degradation in Pittsburgh or Detroit.

I like your solution to Japan’s problems, but I suspect they are deeper and more socially ingrained than tax cuts would be sufficient to rectify.

My understanding is that Asian states suffer from selfish consumerism, hyper-sexualization and strong levels of xenophobia, but I would be happy to learn more. Thanks.


11 posted on 01/23/2010 9:46:54 AM PST by 1010RD (First Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
My understanding is that Asian states suffer from selfish consumerism, hyper-sexualization and strong levels of xenophobia, but I would be happy to learn more. Thanks.

That sounds more like Texas, to me. :)

Asian people don't like to borrow money. They remind of of the way Americans used to be, fifty years ago - they save a lot, pay cash for the things they want, and don't mind living below their means to get ahead. This makes it hard for countries like Japan to use Fed-style central banking trickery - the people won't borrow enough.

Japan kept its zombie banks and protected insider castes alive at all costs after their deflationary collapse, just like we are trying to do today. Japan is going on twenty years of deflationary depression with no end in sight - ours is just getting under way.

12 posted on 01/23/2010 9:53:33 AM PST by Mr. Jeeves ( "The right to offend is far more important than any right not to be offended." - Rowan Atkinson)
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To: cynwoody

Oh that makes sense—I haven’t read either but they’re on my list.

Just finished “Term Limits” by Vince Flynn. It was written in the late 90s I believe, but describes the current situation perfectly. A group of people start watering the tree of liberty by taking out the most corrupt career politicians.


13 posted on 01/23/2010 4:46:51 PM PST by BobbyT
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