I read the article, and here are some initial reactions:
1. A Hezbollah/Syrian incursion into Israel won’t end well for Syria and Hezbollah. They have only been successful in fighting defensive battles, not offensive ones. They have been successful in luring Israeli units into ambush zones within Lebanon. An offensive campaign would be completely different, and not even the UN Security Council would object to Israel pulling out all the stops to defend it’s own sovereign territory from an invasion (but you can expect Crazy Hugo to make another entertaining speech).
2. An Israeli Arab uprising is not likely. Hezbollah is not as popular among the Israeli Arab community as some might think. Hezbollah is NOT seen as synonymous with the Palestinian organizations, which Israeli Arabs sympathize with more than Syrian/Lebanese groups.
3. Although an incursion would likely end poorly for the Syrians and Hezbollah like I mentioned, they are still probably crazy enough to try it. The 2006 conflict didn’t end. It just got the “pause” button pushed on it.
4. Very wishful thinking on my part, but I’m hoping that such an event would stretch the Syrian regime thin enough (already stretched thin as it is just holding onto its own power from various internal factions) that their hold on Lebanon starts to fall. Even more wishful thinking, what if we could get an Iraqi Army peacekeeping force into Lebanon? They have plenty of first-hand experience on destroying Iranian proxies.
It is Debka. Every now and again, there are elements of truth in their articles.
On the face of it, I’d say somebody’s been smoking too much bhang. Do they actually think they have sufficient (accurate) rocket artillery to seriously damage Israeli military bases in the area? As opposed to randomly terrorizing civilians as in ‘06?
What do they have in the way of vehicles and armor? Are these “brigades” supposed to assault on foot the whole way? How are they to be resupplied? What do they have in the way of mobile arty?
Does Bashar seriously believe he can pull this off without exposing himself (personally) and the rest of his regime to an all-out blasting if he puts his oar in?
How many Israeli Arabs really want to derail their comfy existence by playing 1948-all-over-again?