Ballistic Missile Threat Modeling

Aerospace Corporation ^ | unknown | John S. McLaughlin

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

Development and operation of an effective missile defense system depends on a sound understanding of the threat—i.e., reliable models of how foreign missile systems look and operate. The most effective threat models are derived through close interaction between defense system designers and intelligence community experts. This interaction improves the designer's understanding of the intelligence driving the system requirements and the intelligence producer's understanding of which aspects of the missile threat are most important. The utility of a threat model may not depend on more degrees of freedom or decimals of precision, but rather, on a solid grasp of general target characteristics and threat model uncertainty and variability.

Aerospace has a 50-year legacy of intelligence analysis that brings a unique combination of historical perspective, insight, and technical expertise to the characterization of an evolving—and now global—ballistic missile threat.

An evolving threat (or threat model) has serious implications for a developmental ballistic missile defense system. The baseline threat drives the design, and design trades early in the concept development stage can be significantly cheaper than even relatively minor design modifications later on. Thus, threat model importance is greatest when least is known.

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

Interesting Read

[The Duke]

The article doesn't mention the two basic types of models - 1) Deterministic models based on the physical characteristics of the threat, 2) Statistical models based purely on numbers.

Much of this modeling is based on data that was collected by the US decades ago during the Cold War.

Here's an intereting, though brief, related link:

http://www.fas.org/spp/military/program/track/cobra_dane.htm

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

It was a very basic article on the subject,but very interesting.I will read your link.

[larryjohnson]

My wife and I both retired from “circle A”. Thanks for this, the first posting I’ve seen about The Aerospace Corp. I was sometimes atable at West Wing briefings when stationed in LA with AF and Aerospace.
Larry