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Who do you suppose will be. Do you think there is anyone that will excite people to get out and vote, other than Palin or Romney?

Distraction. What matters to me is that SP understands what is at stake in 2010 and is active engaged. Romney isn't. That will hurt in 2012. Man needs to get off the stinking fence and stand for something. Speechifying at the CPAC doesn't count.

I’m not sure. I’d be fine with Sarah Palin as President, but I wouldn’t bet on her overcoming the negative perception people have, to win the nomination. If only conservatives voted, I’d rate her chances much higher.

I’d be fine with Romney as well, but again I don’t see him overcoming the negative perception conservatives have, to win the nomination.

Whoever wins, I hope it is by a clear majority, and not a plurality like McCain. But that will be hard — such a candidate would have to be charasmatic, would have to be conservative enough not just to get the conservative vote, but also to overcome the love affair with Palin, and still appeal to the moderates that comprise a significant part of the republican primary electorate.

I don’t think that 2012 will be a race where any candidate we put into the general will be able to beat Obama. And I think the republican primary voters will be looking not just for a candidate they like, but a candidate they think can win the general election.

So unfortunately, that means in my opinion that “general election matchup” polls will play a signifcant role in the election. Which is another reason I wouldn’t bet on a Palin candidacy, as so far she has not been able to get polls that show her winning independent voters against Obama.

The left did their job well, very well, Palin stumbled when it was most important to make a good first impression, and McCain’s staff was royally incompetent at handling a fresh face, having been picked apparently to handle a grizzled verteran campaign. Fair or not, the perception made in that first month still haunts a Palin candidacy.

I do think it would be possible to turn that around, but again in my opinion the 2012 election is too close at this point to turn it around, and her current activities do not seem destined to fix the perception among those who don’t already like her.

Some people confuse having a dour opinion of the polling with being happy about the polling. I am not happy. I wish she polled better, as I think she would be a good President, and would be sufficiently conservative to advance the cause. I just don’t dismiss the polls like others do, because while I’m sure they are biased, I don’t believe they are THAT biased.