Big quake question: Is nature out of control?

MSNBC ^ | February 27, 2010 | Livescience.com via MSNBC

[americanophile]

Chile is on a hotspot of sorts for earthquake activity. And so the 8.8-magnitude temblor that shook the region overnight was not a surprise, historically speaking. Nor was it outside the realm of normal, scientists say, even though it comes on the heels of other major earthquakes.

One scientist, however, says that relative to the time period from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s, Earth has been more active over the past 15 years or so.

The Chilean earthquake, and the tsunami it spawned, originated on a hot spot known as a subduction zone, where one plate of Earth's crust dives under another. It's part of the active "Ring of Fire," a zone of major crustal plate clashes that surround the Pacific Ocean.

[fanfan]

Great post.

As usual.

:-)

[T Minus Four]

No :-)

[T Minus Four]

No :-)

[TASMANIANRED]

Nature has never been in control.

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Let’s put it this way - I am very content in my beliefs even though you feel the NEED to correct me.

It's not so much for correcting you ... but just to let others know that this is not necessarily what Christians think... i.e., that earthquakes are on the increase and that this is somehow related to the time before the Tribulation.

This is the "thinking" that certain posters "give others" (here on Free Republic) about this being what Christians are supposed to think from the Bible.

It's good when other posters are aware of the fact that this is not what is being said in the Bible, especially when we have the evidence that these earthquakes are not increasing...

So, as long as those other readers understand that this is not what the Bible teaches and not what Christians across the board think... that's fine with me... (and there's no problem, as far as I'm concerned, with you having whatever beliefs you want to have)... :-)

[presently no screen name]

that earthquakes are on the increase and that this is somehow related to the time before the Tribulation.

We don't KNOW if they are or aren't on the increase. YOU are relying on what 'man' says as your proof - much like the climategate crowd. Furthermore, to lull anyone into thinking - these earthquakes have nothing to do w/the tribulation is very self serving and born out of pride - because YOU think you know best.

that's fine with me... (and there's no problem, as far as I'm concerned, with you having whatever beliefs you want to have)... :-)

I'm so happy it's no problem with you in me having whatever beliefs I have and YOUR NEED to state such. Check on pride and control issues before commenting on what Christians believe.

[capt. norm]

Is nature out of control?

When was nature ever under control?

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

We don't KNOW if they are or aren't on the increase. YOU are relying on what 'man' says as your proof - much like the climategate crowd. Furthermore, to lull anyone into thinking - these earthquakes have nothing to do w/the tribulation is very self serving and born out of pride - because YOU think you know best.

Just take a look at the evidence for the last century and you'll see for yourself... :-)

I gave you the source data for it and the article that discusses it... and discusses it in context of the Bible and what it says.

It's clear that Christians do not find it necessary to say that earthquakes are increasing because there are significant numbers of them, who believe in the Bible's prophecies related to the coming of Jesus, the Messiah of Israel and have no reason to require increasing earthquakes prior to the Tribulation.

And besides -- if you're not saying that you think that -- anyway -- it shouldn't make any difference to you and you should be glad that it's not required, from what the Bible says, that earthquakes are increasing now (as you've already indicated that you don't believe that...) -- so it's no big deal for you (i.e., this particular "earthquake issue" of Matthew 24).

Christians who are saying that this is some necessary component of the events leading up to the Tribulation Time are just being sucked into the hyper-mania of some apocalyptic sermons that they've been listening to, and not what the Bible says... LOL...

---

I'm so happy it's no problem with you in me having whatever beliefs I have and YOUR NEED to state such. Check on pride and control issues before commenting on what Christians believe.

You're the one who seemed to think it was some need on my part, so I thought I would make it clear that whatever you believe is not the issue with me -- to clear up that misunderstanding on your part.

What I'm making clear is that there is no need for others who read these posts, and who may wonder about this, to think that Christians must think the Bible has some kind of requirement for "increasing earthquakes" leading up to the Tribulation Time (of 7 years before His coming to earth) from something that Jesus said in Matthew 24 -- because that's absolutely false for some reader of these posts to think that this is so -- on behalf of Christians.

It's very clear that many Christians who accept the soon coming of the Messiah of Israel to this earth -- reject totally -- any relevance to these earthquakes increasing as some sort of "sign" prior to the Tribulation time.

That's what other readers need to know -- that Christians don't fall into that "apocalypic fever" (with earthquakes) that some posters indicate here... LOL...

[timetostand]

Interesting read!

I still maintain that knowing that God is in complete control takes away some of the terror of the natural occurrences and when his plan dictates and every prophetic word is fulfilled the culmination of human history will be at hand.

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

I still maintain that knowing that God is in complete control takes away some of the terror of the natural occurrences and when his plan dictates and every prophetic word is fulfilled the culmination of human history will be at hand.

Yes indeed... I would agree with that 100% -- that God is always in control of these things. And the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob has it all going according to His plan, the plan that He's given us a good "game plan" for, too... in His infallible and inerrant word...

And..., we will see an increase in very devastating earthquakes, so much so, that the cities in the world will be knocked down -- and that happens during the Tribulation Time...

We've seen nothing here... in the 20th Century or this new 21st Century... :-)

[listenhillary]

Has nature ever been under our control?

[presently no screen name]

it shouldn't make any difference to you and you should be glad that it's not required, ) -

"I" should be glad?

from what the Bible says, that earthquakes are increasing now (as you've already indicated that you don't believe that...

I NEVER said earthquakes are increasing nor decreasing - that's YOUR SOAPBOX for the day!

You really NEED to get over your self proclaimed importance! Until then - DON'T speak for 'Christians' in general. Arrogance: an attitude of superiority manifested in an overbearing manner or in presumptuous claims or assumptions.

[Star Traveler]

You were asking ...

You really NEED to get over your self proclaimed importance! Until then - DON'T speak for 'Christians' in general. Arrogance: an attitude of superiority manifested in an overbearing manner or in presumptuous claims or assumptions.

I gave the documentation for other Christians and they're both scientists and non-scientists, theologicans and non-theologians -- in the Christian world, who said that this is not what the Bible says.

If you don't agree with them, and you think that there is some relevance to the earthquakes ... well that's fine for you -- but don't say that there are not a signficant number of other Christians who (at the same time) think that Jesus the Messiah of Israel is coming soon, and also deny the significance of any increase in earthquakes prior to the Tribulation time.

I can additionally document it (with more and other Christians) so that it's clear that I'm not projecting any belief of my own, upon other Christians, but that they are speaking for themselves.

You don't even want to take the direct evidence that I've already provided on this thread... :-)

You seem to be the one who wants to project your beliefs as somehow represenatative of the whole group of Christians, as if they "do not know" if there is any significance or not -- or also that they somehow don't know that earthquakes are not increasing in severity or frequency over the last century (... they can look at the data, too... doncha know... LOL...).

[Publius6961]

... is nature out of control?

My vote for the most monumentally stupid question of the year; maybe the century.

What kind of a retard would even ask such a meaningless question?

[presently no screen name]

I gave the documentation for other Christians and they're both scientists and non-scientists, theologicans and non-theologians -- in the Christian world, who said that this is not what the Bible says.

YOU RELY on what 'man' says - I DON'T! And you seem to have a major problem with that with your constant posting about what YOU and others think OR what others MAY think.

You are so self absorbed - for what I post is going over your head DELIBERATELY because you refuse to deal with it!

***Everyone look at me - I'm star traveler and I have all the info you need - look at this report from scientist, Christians and WHAT THEY SAY! I'll tell you what you should believe because you are all too stupid to know any better. Check this link.....and you will see I'M RIGHT!***

Arrogance, pride, and control issues in play. Check the bible on that - before or after the tribulation comes - your choice.

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

YOU RELY on what 'man' says - I DON'T! And you seem to have a major problem with that with your constant posting about what YOU and others think OR what others MAY think.

No, I rely on sources that can be documented and data that anyone can look at -- in the same way I rely on those when I post information in regards to Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Whether it's in regards to Anthropogenic Global Warming or whether it's the non-relevance of any increase in severity or numbers of major earthquakes in the last century -- it's the same.

I suppose you would rather go by just what you say. I prefer documenting it from sources and from data that all can look at.

That's the way we like to do it here... LOL...

---

***Everyone look at me - I'm star traveler and I have all the info you need - look at this report from scientist, Christians and WHAT THEY SAY! I'll tell you what you should believe because you are all too stupid to know any better. Check this link.....and you will see I'M RIGHT!***

Ummmm..., I think you're bordering on a pyschotic break, here... :-)

[presently no screen name]

I suppose you would rather go by just what you say

Wrong again! I believe what God's Word says and the HS as My Teacher. We are truly opposite and for that I'm grateful.

Ummmm..., I think you're bordering on a pyschotic break, here... :-)

And your proof of that is SOLEY on what YOU THINK because you refuse to look at yourself. I was waiting for you to reveal your true self - "agree with me otherwise you are psychotic". Liberal mindset exposed - fits right in w/arrogance, pride and control issues which you portray constantly.

[Star Traveler]

Twentieth Century Earthquakes - Confronting an Urban Legend

by Steven A. Austin, Ph.D.

An Urban Legend

As the Twentieth Century comes to an end and a new millennium approaches, many would-be prophets predict increasing natural disasters. This concern about earthquakes, volcanoes, famine, and epidemic disease is not without reason. More people have died in the Twentieth Century because of earthquakes, for example, than from war. Both secular and religious seers regard earthquakes to be a sign that civilization faces an impending cataclysm. In his book, A.D. 2000: A Book About the End of Time, Rene Noorbergen, a secular author on the occult, predicts:

Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions will occur with increasing frequency; in fact, a higher increase of these events will shake us to the core and will make our survival a constant struggle from now on.¹

Noorbergen bases his prediction on the past:

The world has already been shocked by the renewed volcanic eruptions and the increased seismic activity foretold by French visionary Nostradamus.²

Sometimes Bible teachers rephrase the notion that earthquakes are on the increase:

In this century, there have been more earthquakes than all the rest of history put together.... Every 10 years, earthquakes double in number, and so it has been for the last 10 decades. During the later part of this decade, earthquakes will occur with increasing regularity, creating terror and panic throughout the world. Jesus said that was one of the signs of His coming.³

Gary Stearman, a writer on Bible prophecy, used data published in the October 11, 1995, Philadelphia Inquirer. According to that newspaper the number of Richter magnitude 6.0 and greater earthquakes worldwide has been increasing from nine in the 1950s, to 13 in the 1960s, to 51 in the 1970s, to 86 in the 1980s, and to more than 100 in the 1990s. Stearman⁴ used this data to argue for a pronounced increase in the frequency of the largest earthquakes. When Stearman's readers confronted him with much more earthquake data than in the Philadelphia Inquirer, he was compelled to revise significantly these numbers.⁵ However, Stearman still insists that earthquakes are increasing.

Do we have here an example of an urban legend? How well-documented are recent statements concerning earthquakes being on the increase? Are the data sets for this century's earthquakes complete? Have the deployment of more seismographs during the last few decades made detection and cataloging of earthquakes more complete, thereby enhancing the perception of increase? Does the public have the perception that earthquakes are on the increase because earthquakes now afflict our larger urbanized populations, and, therefore, are more often reported by the media?

Catalogs of Earthquakes

The year 1997 marked the one hundredth anniversary of the general deployment of standardized and calibrated seismographs. As a result, continuous global monitoring of large earthquakes has now continued for more than 100 years.⁶ Global, historic earthquake data have been synthesized and are available from three main sources:

1. National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The NEIC maintains an Internet web site with databases and summary files open to the public (the URL is http://earthquake.usgs.gov).

2. Council of the National Seismic System (CNSS), a consortium of thirty seismological institutions. Each of the member organizations submits data to an authoritative composite catalog that interested researchers can investigate on the Internet (the URL is http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu:80/cnss).

3. National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The NGDC has produced a two-volume CD-ROM called the "Seismicity Catalog" detailing over four million seismic events from 2100 B.C. to 1995 A.D.⁷ A major part of the catalog is on the Internet and will be updated frequently.

Care and good judgment must be exercised in using global seismic data. Many events smaller than magnitude 6.5 were not reported or properly measured for the early part of the century. Therefore, we cannot compare effectively the frequency of events less than 6.5 from the first and second halves of the century. The global synthesis of magnitude 7.0 and greater is good, even for the earlier decades of the century. However, some catalogs which might be assumed to provide complete records, actually have noteworthy deficiencies. For example, checking the composite global database of the CNSS against CNSS member organizations, revealed many omissions from the main catalog of known earthquakes, even many earthquakes greater than magnitude 7.0 in the 1990s. Careful study must be conducted before a trustworthy earthquake inventory can be made.⁸

Global Synthesis of Twentieth-Century Earthquakes

Excellent global summaries of the frequency of large earthquakes have been prepared by the NEIC (for example see the Internet web site at http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/7up.html). These include the "killer quakes" which cause most of the fatalities. The frequency of this century's "major" (magnitude 7.0 to 7.9) and "great" (magnitude 8.0 and higher) earthquakes is summarized in figure 1. The figure shows the frequency of the biggest earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 and higher) by year from 1900 to 1996. A total of 1,943 events are reported, an average of 20 big events per year. Of the 20 events, an average of one per year is a "great" earthquake and average of 19 per year are "major" earthquakes. However, our century's biggest earthquakes have not been constant through the years. The 1940s was the decade of our century with the most energetic earthquakes (mean=30 events per year with standard deviation of 5.8) and the 1980s was the decade with the least energetic earthquakes (mean=11 events per year with standard deviation of 4.1). The inconstancy is perhaps best illustrated by asking a computer to fit a tenth-degree polynomial equation through the frequency data. The curve shown in figure 1 suggests about a 30-year periodicity in earthquakes of our century. Contrary to the would-be prophets, there is no obvious trend indicating an abnormal increase in the frequency of large earthquakes during the last half of our century.

Figure 1. Global frequency of earthquakes with magnitude 7.0 or greater in the present century. Earthquake frequency is not constant with time and suggests the birth pangs theme of the Bible. The 97 years of data come from the Internet web site maintained by Madeline Zirbes of the National Earthquake Information Center (the URL is http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/7up.html).

The global earthquake frequency data can be used to argue just the opposite of the popular urban legend; earthquake frequency through the century appears to indicate overall a slight decrease. For the data in figure 1 we note 1,093 big earthquakes for the first half of the century (1900 to 1949). That is an average of 22 big earthquakes per year. For the nearly completed second half of the century (1950 to 1996) we note just 850 big earthquakes. That is an average of just 18 per year. When 1998 and 1999 are completed, it is likely that the second half of the century will have about 900 big earthquakes—nearly 200 less than the first half. Thus, the 30-year cyclic pattern appears to be modulated around a slightly-declining trend. This earthquake frequency pattern is consistent with creationist ideas suggesting overall exponentially-declining tectonism and volcanism following Noah's Flood.⁹

Twentieth-Century Earthquakes As "Birth Pangs"

The Lord Jesus Christ spoke of earthquakes as "signs" of His coming again to receive His saints. He said, "There will be earthquakes in divers places" (Matthew 24:7; Mark 13:8), a fact now verified by the global distribution of earthquakes recorded on seismographs. Most noteworthy is Jesus' statement that the earthquake sign is the "beginning of sorrows" (Matthew 24:8; Mark 13:8). The word translated sorrows in many English Bibles is the Greek word for "birth pangs." Just as we know from birth pangs that a pregnant woman is about to give birth to a child, Jesus says we know that the intolerable anguish of God's judgment and the return of His Son is at hand. The 30-year cyclic curve of earthquake frequency in figure 1 is consistent with Jesus' statement about birth pangs.¹⁰

The apostle Paul also develops the birth pang theme when he notes that the whole creation is "groaning in travail" (Romans 8:22) awaiting the new birth of the world. The apostle John speaks of a "great earthquake" associated with the opening of the sixth seal (Revelation 6:12), followed by the sign of the pregnant woman (Revelation 12:2), and followed by the greatest earthquake since men have been upon the earth (Revelation 16:18-20). This future "Armageddon earthquake" will be associated with the return of Christ to Jerusalem (Acts 1:9-11; Zechariah 14:1-11) and is described as inflicting severe topographic and geologic changes on a global scale.¹¹ After God's voice shakes the earth mightily (Hebrews 12:26) and fully accomplishes these extraordinary geologic changes, His saints will receive a "kingdom which cannot be moved" (Hebrews 12:27-29).

References

1 Rene Noorbergen, A.D. 2000: A Book About the End of Time (New York, Bobbs-Merrill Co., 1984), p. 80.

2 Ibid. The statement comes from inside the front of the book's dust jacket.

3 Lester Sumrall, "Famines, Pestilence, Earthquakes, as Man Rebels," in Bob Anderson et al., Earth's Final Days (Green Forest, AR, New Leaf Press, 1994), pp. 63-76.

4 Gary Stearman, "Are Earthquakes on the Increase?" Prophecy in the News (June 1996).

5 See Stearman's apology for the Philadelphia Inquirer's incomplete data in "Earthquakes are Indeed on the Increase" (pp. 27-28) in the next issue of Prophecy in the News.

6 K. Abe and S. Noguchi, "Revision of magnitudes of large shallow earthquakes, 1897-1912," Physics of Earth and Planetary Interiors, 33 (1983), pp. 1-11.

7 National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration, Seismicity Catalog (Boulder, CO, National Geophysical Data Center, 1996), two volumes on CD-ROM.

8 For an updated introduction to the various earthquake information sources see Dr. Steve Malone's "Surfing the Internet for Earthquake Data" (the URL is http://www.geophys.washington.edu/seismosurfing.html).

9 Steven A. Austin, John R. Baumgardner, D. Russell Humphreys, Andrew A. Snelling, Larry Vardiman, and Kurt P. Wise, Catastrophic Plate Tectonics: A Global Flood Model for Earth History (Santee, CA., Geology Education Materials, 1996), 48 pp. and 80 slide photographs.

10 Steven A. Austin, "Earthquakes in these Last Days," Institute for Creation Research Impact No. 198 (December 1989), 4 pp.

11 Henry M. Morris, The Revelation Record (Wheaton: Tyndale House Publishers, 1983), p. 321.

*Dr. Austin is Chairman of the Geology Department at ICR.

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Wrong again! I believe what God's Word says and the HS as My Teacher. We are truly opposite and for that I'm grateful.

For someone who wasn't saying anything, necessarily one way or the other, in regards to earthquakes for signs, as you said above -- you sure get excited over it... LOL...

[greeneyes]

Earthquakes=Mother Nature’s reply to Al Gore and Global Warming Gate. It’s not nice to fool(lie about) Mother Nature.LOL