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Jay made a clear argument just based on statistics. Most people struggle with the concept that an airplane with two engines is twice as likely to have an engine failure as a plane with one engine. But it is the truth. Each engine has a one percent chance of failure. Two engines have two times one percent, or two percent chance for failure.

A nation with thirteen powers acting on their own behalf is 13 times more likely to engage in mischief than a nation with one power. Jay’s ideals, though, are obvious from his poor prediction of the state of Indian affairs. Jay believed that the central government would attract the best and brightest because of increased opportunity to do good. He ommitted the fact that it would also attract the most unscrupulous characters because of the increased opportunity to do harm.

His time spent in European courts should have made this clear. Often the king’s men do not care about the best interests of the king. They have repeatedly acted intentionally to harm the monarchy and promote their own interests. Sometimes this was good, sometimes it was not. Jay’s opinion here is a glossover, and for that reason, I’ve ignored it for many years.