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San Fran Nan likes to repeat the old saw: “We will pass comprehensive and quality health care reform for all Americans”. Let’s take a look at the current numbers shall we?

Obamacare passed the House in November 220-215. Four ‘Yes’ vote democrats have left the House and the lone Republican to vote for Obamacare, Cao (R-LA) is voting ‘No’.

So as it stands, today, if the the vote were held and everyone voted the same as they did in November, Obamacare would fail to pass 216 ‘No’ to 215 ‘Yes’. 216 is required for passage.

San Fran Nan needs to hold ALL of her ‘Yes’ votes from November AND flip ONE MORE vote from ‘No’ to ‘Yes’.

The problem is there is NOT ONE ‘No’ vote who has definitively stated they were flipping to ‘Yes’. NOT ONE.

On the other hand, there are THREE BLOCKS of ‘Yes’ votes that are threatening to flip their vote to ‘No’: Bart Stupak and his pro-life Democrat coalition, Progressives who are DEMANDING a public option and can’t quite figure out why Obama has morphed into a corporate centrist in bed with Wall Street, Big Pharma and the insurance companies, and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus which is objecting to the ban on illegal aliens being able to participate in Obamacare with their own money.

Any one of the three could bolt and bring anywhere from 5 to 15 ‘No’ votes to the Floor of the House effectively killing Obamacare.

What is transpiring is a classic prisoner’s dilemna for killing Obamacare. Here is why that is true:

Whichever faction of Democrats gets out in front and under the kleig lights and in front of a bank of cameras, shaking angry fists and denouncing the ‘sellout’ which is the Senate bill, will reap a political goldmine with their own constituencies.

The two other factions that dawdle and are not aggressive at killing Obamacare will reap nothing politically for Obamacare dying in the House.

The two factions that are not proactive in killing Obamacare will be caught snoozing, and in this political game, to snooze is to lose.

It’s dead Jim.