More Earthquake Data Does Not Mean More Earthquakes

I’d bet that this is all manbearpig’s fault

Statistical norms.

Very good point. I had a conversation with someone obsessed with the end times recently and she was talking about now there are more wars than ever, more disease than ever, more famines than ever, etc.

I pointed out that frankly, we are in a pretty peaceful and stable period of history. Even a couple hundred years ago you would find every single country in some sort of war or another, including perpetual wars like the 100 years war. As for famine and disease, now, people’s life expectancies are longer than ever and the only reason we see more of some certain types of disease is that it wasn’t long ago, people didn’t live long enough to actually catch the disease before they died of other means.

There aren’t more wars, earthquakes, famine, etc- there are just more outlets of reporting and witnessing, so the information is passed along quicker. Heck, 20 years ago we may not even have heard about some of the earthquakes like in China, Turkey, or Iran that have happened over the past year.

Good points. Even twenty years, well maybe 30 at this point, if there was a quake, you would have a brief story on the news and some articles in the local fishwrap, and that was it. Now we have 24/7 news cycles, and hear and see these tragedies more often.

Too bad cable news and the internet were not around in the days of Stalin ...

It is commonly taken for granted that the 20th was the most violent century, as more people died in war during that century than any other.

A more reasonable way to measure violence, is the rate. As a percentage of the world’s population that died in war the 20th probably comes off on the low end.

The 13th, due to Genghis Khan, probably holds the world record, upwards of 10% to 20% of the world’s population being killed in war.

My point is, that IF one wants to measure a rate of earthquake increase, then one cannot do it on the basis of newspaper headline reports.

I do trust ICR in this regard, since they have the science background, plus a basic respect for the reality of end time events.

Their conclusion: it ain’t here yet (an earthquake increase, that is.)

More Earthquake Data Does Not Mean More Earthquakes

by Brian Thomas, M.S. *

Following a magnitude 8.8 earthquake on February 27, 2010, Chile experienced a 7.2 magnitude aftershock on March 11, the same day that President Sebastian Pinera was sworn into office.¹ Considering the size of the initial earthquake, it is no surprise that the aftershock was significantly powerful, and more strong aftershocks remain likely.

These recent events have made some people curious about any connection between current earthquakes and various predictions of earth’s final days. Do the apparently increasing number of earthquakes foreshadow a divine judgment?

On the surface, earthquake data compiled by the United States Geological Survey appear to show a sharp increase in the number of earthquakes in recent decades.² During the 1990s, fewer than 200,000 earthquakes were recorded in the world. From January 2000 until March 2010, almost 275,000 earthquakes were recorded.

However, the increased number of recorded quakes does not correspond with an increase in seismic activity. Rather, it is due to the proliferation of seismometers deployed worldwide over the last few decades. A USGS fact sheet reminds readers that “as more and more seismographs are installed in the world, more earthquakes can be and have been located.”³

Geologist Steve Austin reviewed similar earthquake data from the 20th century.⁴ He found that there was a decrease in the number of magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquakes in the latter half of the century. Thus, either secularly or religiously motivated apocalyptic claims that are based on increasing numbers of earthquakes in general, or on increasing numbers of major earthquakes, stand on shaky ground.

Although there are no instruments that can accurately predict the imminence of any major reworking of earth’s surface, there is solid teaching from the Bible. The Revelation of future events given to the apostle John describes a coming earthquake greater than any that occurred before.⁵ It will come as part of God’s judgment on sinful mankind and will destroy “the cities of the nations”⁶ in preparation of the earth for its rightful king, Jesus Christ the Creator.

References

Long, G. New earthquake strikes Chile as billionaire Sebastian Pinera is sworn in as President. The Independent. Posted on independent.co.uk March 12, 2010, accessed March 12, 2010.
Compare Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 1990-1999 with Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 2000-2010. U.S. Geological Survey fact sheets. Posted on earthquake.usgs.gov, accessed March 15, 2010.
Earthquake Facts and Statistics. U.S. Geological Survey fact sheet. Posted on earthquake.usgs.gov, accessed March 15, 2010.
Austin, S. A. 1998. Twentieth Century Earthquakes – Confronting an Urban Legend. Acts & Facts 27 (1). Similar results were published in Austin, S. A. and M. L. Strauss 1999. Are Earthquakes Signs of the End Times?: A Geological and Biblical Response to an Urban Legend. Christian Research Journal. 21(4): 30-39.
Revelation 16:18.
Revelation 16:19.

* Mr. Thomas is Science Writer at the Institute for Creation Research.

Also from the USGS webpage....

Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?

We continue to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.

A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 17 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year.

See the chart at this USGS webpage...

Earthquake Facts and Statistics

The USGS estimates that several million earthquakes occur in the world each year. Many go undetected because they hit remote areas or have very small magnitudes. The NEIC now locates about 50 earthquakes each day, or about 20,000 a year.

As more and more seismographs are installed in the world, more earthquakes can be and have been located. However, the number of large earthquakes (magnitude 6.0 and greater) has stayed relatively constant. See: Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?

Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 2000 - 2010
Located by the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center

Magnitude	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
8.0 to 9.9	1	1	0	1	2	1	2	4	0	1	1
7.0 to 7.9	14	15	13	14	14	10	9	14	12	16	3
6.0 to 6.9	146	121	127	140	141	140	142	178	168	142	41
5.0 to 5.9	1344	1224	1201	1203	1515	1693	1712	2074	1768	1700	471
4.0 to 4.9	8008	7991	8541	8462	10888	13917	12838	12078	12291	6981	1075
3.0 to 3.9	4827	6266	7068	7624	7932	9191	9990	9889	11735	2896	313
2.0 to 2.9	3765	4164	6419	7727	6316	4636	4027	3597	3860	3005	458
1.0 to 1.9	1026	944	1137	2506	1344	26	18	42	21	26	8
0.1 to 0.9	5	1	10	134	103	0	2	2	0	1	0
No Magnitude	3120	2807	2938	3608	2939	864	828	1807	1922	20	4
Total	22256	23534	27454	31419	31194	30478	29568	29685	31777	* 14788	* 2374
Estimated Deaths	231	21357	1685	33819	228802	82364	6605	712	88011	1787	223161

Starting in January 2009, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center no longer locates earthquakes smaller than magnitude 4.5 outside the United States, unless we receive specific information that the earthquake was felt or caused damage.

From the Pacific Disaster Center...

There is no evidence that earthquakes are becoming more frequent, it is simply that more earthquakes are being recorded, especially small ones, as extensive world-wide monitoring networks continue to expand. The number of large earthquakes, however, remains stable year in and year out. The Earthquake Hazards Program (USGS) website provides data on the frequency of earthquake occurences.
Officials at the USGS estimate that several million earthquakes occur in the world each year. But many go undetected because they occur in remote areas or have very small magnitudes. The USGS National Earthquake Information Center locates about 50 earthquakes each day, or about 20,000 a year. Up-to-date statistics on the number of earthquakes worldwide and in the United States can be found in the Earthquake Hazards Program (USGS) website.

http://www.pdc.org/iweb/earthquake_increase.jsp?subg=1

Twentieth Century Earthquakes - Confronting an Urban Legend

by Steven A. Austin, Ph.D.

An Urban Legend

As the Twentieth Century comes to an end and a new millennium approaches, many would-be prophets predict increasing natural disasters. This concern about earthquakes, volcanoes, famine, and epidemic disease is not without reason. More people have died in the Twentieth Century because of earthquakes, for example, than from war. Both secular and religious seers regard earthquakes to be a sign that civilization faces an impending cataclysm. In his book, A.D. 2000: A Book About the End of Time, Rene Noorbergen, a secular author on the occult, predicts:

Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions will occur with increasing frequency; in fact, a higher increase of these events will shake us to the core and will make our survival a constant struggle from now on.¹

Noorbergen bases his prediction on the past:

The world has already been shocked by the renewed volcanic eruptions and the increased seismic activity foretold by French visionary Nostradamus.²

Sometimes Bible teachers rephrase the notion that earthquakes are on the increase:

In this century, there have been more earthquakes than all the rest of history put together.... Every 10 years, earthquakes double in number, and so it has been for the last 10 decades. During the later part of this decade, earthquakes will occur with increasing regularity, creating terror and panic throughout the world. Jesus said that was one of the signs of His coming.³

Gary Stearman, a writer on Bible prophecy, used data published in the October 11, 1995, Philadelphia Inquirer. According to that newspaper the number of Richter magnitude 6.0 and greater earthquakes worldwide has been increasing from nine in the 1950s, to 13 in the 1960s, to 51 in the 1970s, to 86 in the 1980s, and to more than 100 in the 1990s. Stearman⁴ used this data to argue for a pronounced increase in the frequency of the largest earthquakes. When Stearman's readers confronted him with much more earthquake data than in the Philadelphia Inquirer, he was compelled to revise significantly these numbers.⁵ However, Stearman still insists that earthquakes are increasing.

Do we have here an example of an urban legend? How well-documented are recent statements concerning earthquakes being on the increase? Are the data sets for this century's earthquakes complete? Have the deployment of more seismographs during the last few decades made detection and cataloging of earthquakes more complete, thereby enhancing the perception of increase? Does the public have the perception that earthquakes are on the increase because earthquakes now afflict our larger urbanized populations, and, therefore, are more often reported by the media?

Catalogs of Earthquakes

The year 1997 marked the one hundredth anniversary of the general deployment of standardized and calibrated seismographs. As a result, continuous global monitoring of large earthquakes has now continued for more than 100 years.⁶ Global, historic earthquake data have been synthesized and are available from three main sources:

1. National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The NEIC maintains an Internet web site with databases and summary files open to the public (the URL is http://earthquake.usgs.gov).

2. Council of the National Seismic System (CNSS), a consortium of thirty seismological institutions. Each of the member organizations submits data to an authoritative composite catalog that interested researchers can investigate on the Internet (the URL is http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu:80/cnss).

3. National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The NGDC has produced a two-volume CD-ROM called the "Seismicity Catalog" detailing over four million seismic events from 2100 B.C. to 1995 A.D.⁷ A major part of the catalog is on the Internet and will be updated frequently.

Care and good judgment must be exercised in using global seismic data. Many events smaller than magnitude 6.5 were not reported or properly measured for the early part of the century. Therefore, we cannot compare effectively the frequency of events less than 6.5 from the first and second halves of the century. The global synthesis of magnitude 7.0 and greater is good, even for the earlier decades of the century. However, some catalogs which might be assumed to provide complete records, actually have noteworthy deficiencies. For example, checking the composite global database of the CNSS against CNSS member organizations, revealed many omissions from the main catalog of known earthquakes, even many earthquakes greater than magnitude 7.0 in the 1990s. Careful study must be conducted before a trustworthy earthquake inventory can be made.⁸

Global Synthesis of Twentieth-Century Earthquakes

Excellent global summaries of the frequency of large earthquakes have been prepared by the NEIC (for example see the Internet web site at http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/7up.html). These include the "killer quakes" which cause most of the fatalities. The frequency of this century's "major" (magnitude 7.0 to 7.9) and "great" (magnitude 8.0 and higher) earthquakes is summarized in figure 1. The figure shows the frequency of the biggest earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 and higher) by year from 1900 to 1996. A total of 1,943 events are reported, an average of 20 big events per year. Of the 20 events, an average of one per year is a "great" earthquake and average of 19 per year are "major" earthquakes. However, our century's biggest earthquakes have not been constant through the years. The 1940s was the decade of our century with the most energetic earthquakes (mean=30 events per year with standard deviation of 5.8) and the 1980s was the decade with the least energetic earthquakes (mean=11 events per year with standard deviation of 4.1). The inconstancy is perhaps best illustrated by asking a computer to fit a tenth-degree polynomial equation through the frequency data. The curve shown in figure 1 suggests about a 30-year periodicity in earthquakes of our century. Contrary to the would-be prophets, there is no obvious trend indicating an abnormal increase in the frequency of large earthquakes during the last half of our century.

Figure 1. Global frequency of earthquakes with magnitude 7.0 or greater in the present century. Earthquake frequency is not constant with time and suggests the birth pangs theme of the Bible. The 97 years of data come from the Internet web site maintained by Madeline Zirbes of the National Earthquake Information Center (the URL is http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/7up.html).

The global earthquake frequency data can be used to argue just the opposite of the popular urban legend; earthquake frequency through the century appears to indicate overall a slight decrease. For the data in figure 1 we note 1,093 big earthquakes for the first half of the century (1900 to 1949). That is an average of 22 big earthquakes per year. For the nearly completed second half of the century (1950 to 1996) we note just 850 big earthquakes. That is an average of just 18 per year. When 1998 and 1999 are completed, it is likely that the second half of the century will have about 900 big earthquakes—nearly 200 less than the first half. Thus, the 30-year cyclic pattern appears to be modulated around a slightly-declining trend. This earthquake frequency pattern is consistent with creationist ideas suggesting overall exponentially-declining tectonism and volcanism following Noah's Flood.⁹

Twentieth-Century Earthquakes As "Birth Pangs"

The Lord Jesus Christ spoke of earthquakes as "signs" of His coming again to receive His saints. He said, "There will be earthquakes in divers places" (Matthew 24:7; Mark 13:8), a fact now verified by the global distribution of earthquakes recorded on seismographs. Most noteworthy is Jesus' statement that the earthquake sign is the "beginning of sorrows" (Matthew 24:8; Mark 13:8). The word translated sorrows in many English Bibles is the Greek word for "birth pangs." Just as we know from birth pangs that a pregnant woman is about to give birth to a child, Jesus says we know that the intolerable anguish of God's judgment and the return of His Son is at hand. The 30-year cyclic curve of earthquake frequency in figure 1 is consistent with Jesus' statement about birth pangs.¹⁰

The apostle Paul also develops the birth pang theme when he notes that the whole creation is "groaning in travail" (Romans 8:22) awaiting the new birth of the world. The apostle John speaks of a "great earthquake" associated with the opening of the sixth seal (Revelation 6:12), followed by the sign of the pregnant woman (Revelation 12:2), and followed by the greatest earthquake since men have been upon the earth (Revelation 16:18-20). This future "Armageddon earthquake" will be associated with the return of Christ to Jerusalem (Acts 1:9-11; Zechariah 14:1-11) and is described as inflicting severe topographic and geologic changes on a global scale.¹¹ After God's voice shakes the earth mightily (Hebrews 12:26) and fully accomplishes these extraordinary geologic changes, His saints will receive a "kingdom which cannot be moved" (Hebrews 12:27-29).

References

1 Rene Noorbergen, A.D. 2000: A Book About the End of Time (New York, Bobbs-Merrill Co., 1984), p. 80.

2 Ibid. The statement comes from inside the front of the book's dust jacket.

3 Lester Sumrall, "Famines, Pestilence, Earthquakes, as Man Rebels," in Bob Anderson et al., Earth's Final Days (Green Forest, AR, New Leaf Press, 1994), pp. 63-76.

4 Gary Stearman, "Are Earthquakes on the Increase?" Prophecy in the News (June 1996).

5 See Stearman's apology for the Philadelphia Inquirer's incomplete data in "Earthquakes are Indeed on the Increase" (pp. 27-28) in the next issue of Prophecy in the News.

6 K. Abe and S. Noguchi, "Revision of magnitudes of large shallow earthquakes, 1897-1912," Physics of Earth and Planetary Interiors, 33 (1983), pp. 1-11.

7 National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration, Seismicity Catalog (Boulder, CO, National Geophysical Data Center, 1996), two volumes on CD-ROM.

8 For an updated introduction to the various earthquake information sources see Dr. Steve Malone's "Surfing the Internet for Earthquake Data" (the URL is http://www.geophys.washington.edu/seismosurfing.html).

9 Steven A. Austin, John R. Baumgardner, D. Russell Humphreys, Andrew A. Snelling, Larry Vardiman, and Kurt P. Wise, Catastrophic Plate Tectonics: A Global Flood Model for Earth History (Santee, CA., Geology Education Materials, 1996), 48 pp. and 80 slide photographs.

10 Steven A. Austin, "Earthquakes in these Last Days," Institute for Creation Research Impact No. 198 (December 1989), 4 pp.

11 Henry M. Morris, The Revelation Record (Wheaton: Tyndale House Publishers, 1983), p. 321.

*Dr. Austin is Chairman of the Geology Department at ICR.

The following article from the Institute of Creation Research, regarding earthquakes that we have seen and have been recorded, copied and printed in a Christian website, by Lambert Dolphin.

EARTHQUAKES AND THE END TIMES: A GEOLOGICAL AND BIBLICAL PERSPECTIVE

Steven A. Austin and Mark L. Strauss*

Institute for Creation Research, PO Box 2667, El Cajon, CA 92021
Voice: (619) 448-0900 FAX: (619) 448-3469

(Unpublished manuscript of January 14, 1999. These authors published a simplified,
less technical version of this paper in 1999 under the title "Are Earthquakes Signs of the End Times?:
A Geological and Biblical Response to an Urban Legend,"
Christian Research Journal, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 30-39.)

(From: http://www.icr.org/research/sa/sa-r06.htm)

Our primary concern is with the first part of the discourse, where Jesus warns against being deceived by false christs or being alarmed at wars, rumors of wars, famines and earthquakes:

And Jesus answered and said to them, "See to it that no one misleads you. For many will come in My name, saying, 'I am the Christ,' and will mislead many. You will be hearing of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not frightened, for those things must take place, but that is not yet the end. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and in various places there will be famines and earthquakes. But all these things are merely the beginning of birth pangs." (Matt. 24:4-8)

Among dispensationalists there are two main interpretations of these verses. As we shall see, neither confirms that earthquakes will increase as the present Church age draws to a close.

(1) Some dispensationalists see the whole of the Olivet Discourse as relating to the tribulation period. Verses 4-8 are usually said to concern the disturbances of the first half of the tribulation while verses 9-26 concern the second half - the Great Tribulation.53 Evidence for this is claimed in the similarity between the events described in verses 4-8 and those associated with the seven seals of Revelation 6.54 For advocates of this view, the earthquakes identified in verses 7-8 are not part of the present Church age, but rather the tribulation period. In this case, even if the birth image in verse 8 were to indicate an increase in earthquakes (which is not necessary - see discussion below), this increase occurs during the tribulation, not during the present Church age. Present (Church age) data concerning earthquake frequency has little or no bearing on the text.

(2) Other dispensationalists (as well as many non-dispensationalists) claim that verses 4-8 (or verses 4-14) concern not the tribulation period, but general signs which are characteristic of the present age. Lewis Sperry Chafer wrote that the events described in verses 4-8 "are the characteristics of the unforeseen intervening or intercalary age"55 - that is, the Church age. John Walvoord similarly affirms that "verses 4-14 are general prophecies that can find fulfillment throughout the present age, with verses 15-30 fulfilled in the Great Tribulation."56 He adds, however, that these former events "are repeated in the Great Tribulation when what was perhaps partially fulfilled earlier then have a very literal and devastating fulfillment."57 The primary evidence that verses 4-14 are signs characteristic of the present age are their general nature and the fact that Jesus identifies them as events which do not indicate the end ("but that is not yet the end") and so should not provoke apocalyptic fervor ("see that you are not alarmed").

[ an excerpt, see the link for complete article ... ]

Figure 1. Global frequency of the largest earthquakes during the twentieth century. Graph (a) shows the frequency of M 7.0 earthquakes during the entire century (1960 events). Graph (b) shows the frequency of M 6.5 earthquakes after 1930 (4593 events). In both plots a general decrease in earthquake frequency is evident through the twentieth century.

Table 1. Numbers of M 6.0 earthquakes worldwide in the twentieth century. The numbers of earthquakes reported in the National Geophysical Data Center file called "1900.EQ" greatly exceed those reported by Hal Lindsey from his unspecified U.S. Geological Survey source.

I would be highly doubtful that earthquakes could have been measured very well until the last 50 or so years.

Kind of like trying to use tree rings and tell us what the temps were 1,000 years ago.

It isn’t just earthquakes.

You cannot deny the objective vast increase in
prophesied “rumors” of earthquakes, due to improved
measurement and reporting in these “end times”.

Earthquakes

I’m afraid that’s getting too esoteric and mystical for me... :-)

That was the point of the article.

Thanks.

Those are good articles, too.

More Earthquake Data Does Not Mean More Earthquakes

Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?

Earthquake Facts and Statistics

Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 2000 - 2010 Located by the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center

Twentieth Century Earthquakes - Confronting an Urban Legend

EARTHQUAKES AND THE END TIMES: A GEOLOGICAL AND BIBLICAL PERSPECTIVE

Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 2000 - 2010
Located by the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center