You may be right especially if things don’t turn around as a result of court challenges to 0bamacare, nullification efforts ,the taking one of the Houses in congress in 2010 and the White House in 2012 (and not a rino!)
Your time line of 2013 makes sense because this could happen after a stolen election by zero. By 2014, the mandates kick in and it would be difficult for any private insurance companies to survive. We also could have the specter of hyper-inflation and currency collapse which could precipitate martial law. That certainly could be the spark.
If the Texas governor (Perry) stands up and gets some of the contiguous plains and mountain states to follow him we will see interposition actions that allow the states to opt out of federal mandates. A game of chicken might ensue where the federal government refuses to release funds to the states and the states retaliate by allowing state citizens to stop paying federal income taxes. Then we will see who blinks first.
My other scenario is where Alaska takes the lead in breaking away. This might be facilitated by China. China could gain almost instant Pacific hegemony and also secure some oil contracts. Add a dollar collapse and there will be demand for an oil based currency among Alaskans. Alaska is difficult territory to hold and police by an occupying US force. Alaskans all have guns and can live off the land. They could hold out better than Afghanistan. With the US forces tied up in Alaska, Texas and the inter-mountain West could separate.
I don't think there is a need to "tie up" US forces. Obama conducts himself as a petty bully and a sissy, not someone who would seek a fight. So long as real Americans leave the union peaceably, I doubt that the communist in our White House would even attempt to use our military to stop us. In a move of that magnitude, it's imprudent not to consider all contingencies, but I expect the actual path to be non-violent. BTW, I think the Free States should accept a share of the national debt on their way out, based on their per capita share of the national debt, adjusted as appropriate for the value of other abandoned or assumed assets.