Egyptian military coalescing behind intel chief to succeed Mubarak

GeoStrategies Direct ^ | 4/16/2010 | GeoStrategies Direct

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

Egypt's military and intelligence community have joined to support a high-profile general as successor to the ailing President Hosni Mubarak, a report said.

The Washington-based Center for New Politics and Policy said that Egypt's military and intelligence community has designated Maj. Gen. Omar Suleiman as its candidate to succeed Mubarak, who turns 82 in May. In a report by analyst Webster Brooks, the center said Suleiman was being urged by his colleagues in the military and intelligence services to announce his candidacy for president in elections scheduled for October 2011.

"Threatened by the continuation of a Mubarak dynasty on the one hand and rising opposition forces on the other, the military and state security elites that rule Egypt are closing ranks behind Omar Suleiman, head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Services to run for president," the report, titled "Egypt's Succession Crisis: Omar Suleiman and Mohammed El Baredei Hold Keys to the Presidency," said.

The report, released on April 1, said Mubarak's 28-year rule of Egypt was coming to an end. But Brooks warned that Mubarak, who underwent gallbladder surgery in March, was determined to eliminate opposition candidates in an effort to ensure that his son, Gamal, becomes the next president.

"Egypt is lurching toward a collision between its competing power centers where a military coup, civil chaos and divided government could lead to a state collapse," the report said.

Brooks identified Suleiman as well as former International Atomic Energy Agency director-general Mohammed El Baradei as the chief threats to Mubarak's succession plans. El Baradei was said to have galvanized the weak and divided opposition movement ahead of parliamentary elections in the fall of 2010.

"Suddenly the opposition movement is a force to be reckoned with in the 2010 parliamentary elections and the 2011 presidential race," the report said.

[spyone]

General rule when betting: Always put your money on the dictator and his son.

[JSteff]

What would this mean to Israel?

[Raymann]

It’s complicated, Egypt is hardly a democracy but it does have several democratic institutions that the president must respect. Both canidates are pretty pro-west, even though Suleiman studied in the USSR he helped build the relationship Egypt currently has with the US and Israel (so I would say he’s firmly keeping the status quo)

Mubarak son attended western schools and even worked for Bank of America however I would say he would lose most support after his father dies.

Whoever comes out on top, I doubt much would change.