First, the Democrats are actually in worse shape than the raw numbers suggest because of the dual impact of intensity/apathy. We have noted the intensity on the conservative side but it is likely that there will be a high degree of apathy on the Democrat side which will further depress their turnout, especially among non-African-American voters. Which brings me to my second point,
Second, the Democrats must count on 90% or better of the African American vote to win national elections but much of this vote is concentrated in black districts leaving fewer Democrats to compete with non-African-Americans in suburban and ex-urban districts. My maxim of American politics, all politics in America is not local but racial, means that in statewide and nationwide races the African American vote is very important and liable to tip the balance. But in local congressional elections the opposite can be true. I believe it will be true this time.
Third, those few Democrats with conscience, usually those who described themselves as "blue dogs" have up until now, and will through the November elections, be confronted with a choice of accepting a stab in the back from their own party or facing the wrath of an aroused citizenry directly on election day. Since the George Soros' takeover of the Democratic Party which he accomplished through seizing control of the purse, control of the propaganda arms of the party, and by elevating Barack Obama, the Democrat party has become almost Stalinist in its doctrinal rigidity. It has also become almost Stalinist (if Chris Matthews can misappropriate the word so can I) in its discipline and control over the party.
That is why Obama was able to get health care through. A rational if unprincipled representative calculated that the odds were better by staying with the party than bucking it. If they lost their election because of the backlash of the electorate, there was always the possibility of a sinecure or a lobbying position, or even, as history is shown, marriage into the first family. If they buck the party they would lose the primary and probably the general election anyway.
After November, the equation changes for those "persuadable" Democrats to whom one might appeal with reason in the hope, however tenuous, that they were amenable to reason. After November most of the persuadable Democrats will have been defeated because they are in the vulnerable districts. After the election, then, they will have absolutely nothing to gain by bucking the party and if they do they will forfeit any chance to advance themselves as party apparatchiks.
I believe that the Democratic Party has become so thoroughly corrupt under the influence of George Soros and through the outworking of the Chicago style politics implemented by Obama, Emmanuel, and the rest that one ought not to expect that party to behave rationally or in accordance with historical norms. We should not expect a period of triangulation that we saw after the contract with America set Bill Clinton back because, unlike Clinton who was a self promoter, Obama is an ideologue who will exploit the machinery at his fingertips scarcely less obsessively than the mullahs of Iran.
Therefore, I do not expect to see any moderation in Democrat usurpations after November and before the new Congress takes over.
