I will have to disagree here. He's an 0-6. If he's convicted at GCM of the of missing movement and the several specification of failure to obey, he's not going to keep his commission. He'll definitely face some confinement, some forfeiture, rank and dismissal. Those are serious charges for a commissioned officer, and the punishment will be commensurate. The max punishment he's looking at is dismissal (dishonorable), complete forfeiture and around 4 years confinement. He's won't get the max (probably), but he's not going to get a slap on the wrist, not as an 0-6.
Might be interesting to see if the Army screws up (maybe intentionally) the prosecution like they did in the 1LT Watada case at Ft. Lewis and wound up having to dismiss all the charges and giving the guy an honorable discharge.
In the end, Lakin will likely lose unless he wins BIG in the court of public opinion prior to the actual trial.