Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Murtha aide pulls ahead in special election race
Tribune-Review (suburban Pittsburgh) ^ | 12 May 2010 | Mike Wereschagin

Posted on 05/12/2010 8:14:43 AM PDT by Vigilanteman

A close primary race has divided Republicans in the late Rep. John Murtha's district and has helped Democrat Mark Critz take the lead in the special election to replace him, according to a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey.

Critz leads GOP nominee Tim Burns 44 percent to 38 percent with one week to go. Voters on Tuesday will pick between the two to fill Murtha's unexpired term and will choose their parties' nominees for the general election in November.

A majority of Democrats back Critz in the primary over challengers Ryan Bucchianeri and Ron Mackell Jr.

Burns is locked in a statistical dead heat with Army veteran Bill Russell for the Republican nomination, according to the poll.

(Excerpt) Read more at pittsburghlive.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: burns; critz; murtha; pork
While it is true that one sorry legacy of Murtha's District is a hopeless addiction to pork, it is also true that Critz is running as the de facto incumbent and, if he can't break 50% just one week before the primary, then he's in trouble.

Bill Russell has been airing a lot of radio advertising, all positive, pro-conservative and nothing anti-Burns.

Burns really can't attack Russell and win. He can only hope that voters will see through Critz and ride the anti-incumbent express to win the unexpired term of Murtha, even though he may well lose the primary to Russell for the full two year term. Burns is not exactly a RINO, but he is tainted with having been put up by the RINO wing of the GOP.

1 posted on 05/12/2010 8:14:44 AM PDT by Vigilanteman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

Stupid people elct stupid people.


2 posted on 05/12/2010 8:16:03 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion,,,,,,the Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

One day poll of 400 Likely Voters with a 5% MOE, I’m not buying it. I think Burns leads the special election by 4 - 7 points.


3 posted on 05/12/2010 8:16:57 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

Well if runs into trouble, he can always fall back on what do what worked for ScuMurtha:

1) Directly insult the voters.

2) Threaten the very industries which support a good portion of the electorate.


4 posted on 05/12/2010 8:18:14 AM PDT by EyeGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman
This was an interesting quote that shows some interest to the "internal politics" of things.

Burns' internal polling shows him leading Critz by 7 percentage points among voters who can correctly name the election day, which shows "intensity is on our side," said campaign manager Kent Gates.

5 posted on 05/12/2010 8:19:26 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (3V3Ry71N' 084M4 D03z 83N3f17Z MU5l1mz. c01NC1d3nc3?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

Is this a poll of registered voters? In a district this heavily Dem, a poll of registered voters, as oppose to likely voters, Critz should be winning handily.


6 posted on 05/12/2010 8:21:26 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ann Archy

Why the late move?


7 posted on 05/12/2010 8:24:17 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

Another case of the better being the enemy of the good, resulting in the bad winning?


8 posted on 05/12/2010 8:24:20 AM PDT by muleskinner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

I kind of figured this would happen. The district is unfortunately filled with a lot of reflexive Democrat voters who would pull the lever for a ‘Rat if he was the devil himself.

Plus, Critz or his surrogates have been running a lot of negative ads against Burns, one of which claims that Burns “supports a 23% sales tax on everything.” It’s obviously a reference to his support of the Fair Tax in an old interview, and fails to mention that it is (1) a proposal only and 2) the tax would replace income taxes and be reimbursable up to the poverty level. No matter; it seems to have resonated among people in the district that I’ve spoken to.


9 posted on 05/12/2010 8:26:02 AM PDT by rightwingintelligentsia (Forcing one person to pay for the irresponsibility of another is NOT social justice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

Likely Voters. But, many of the Dems in this district are “Reagan Democrats” who often vote Repub (McCain 2008), and who do not support Obama, Obamacare, deficit spending and debt.


10 posted on 05/12/2010 8:27:46 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman
Burns is not exactly a RINO, but he is tainted with having been put up by the RINO wing of the GOP.

This.

A lot of negative things have been said on this forum about Burns, most of it crap by people who don't know what the hell they're talking about.

It's true that Burns was chosen by the hideous RINO PA Chairman Bob Gleason, but Burns is far more of a conservative than Gleason would have wished for, I guarantee you.

Having said all this, I'll most likely vote for Russell. I've met him and he's everything people have said about him.

But if Burns comes out of this thing on top, well, we could do a hell of a lot worse than him.

A hell of a lot worse...

11 posted on 05/12/2010 8:27:54 AM PDT by THX 1138 ("Harry, I have a gift.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 3catsanadog; agrace; airborne; Ayn Rand wannabe; bdeaner; Benrand; bloodmeridian; buzzyboop; ...
It's a 'Burgh
>> PING <<
Thing.™
Click for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Forecast
Send FReepmail if yunz want on/off BPT list, 'n'at
Learn Pittsburghese!
Free Streaming 'Burgh Radio
The List of Ping Lists

12 posted on 05/12/2010 8:28:37 AM PDT by martin_fierro (< |:)~)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie
Yes, district is about 2 to 1 Democrat. But SW Pennsylvania Democrats are like their close cousins in West Virginia-- addicted to pork, but socially conservative. McCain won this district. Critz is advertising that he's pro-life, pro-gun and against ObamaCare.

It is really not clear from the poll if this is registered voters or likely voters. The polling outfit, Susquehanna, is generally considered credible.

13 posted on 05/12/2010 8:28:53 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

McCain won the district by maybe 1% Kerry won the district in 2004. It is not a swing district at all.


14 posted on 05/12/2010 8:29:43 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

One argument against Critz is that, lacking Murtha’s enormous seniority and connections to the defense industry, he would be incapable of producing Murtha-sized pork packages.

So you get someone just as corrupt as Murtha, but without the ability to deliver the pork.

Seems to me that would be a realistic approach to a campaign ad.


15 posted on 05/12/2010 8:30:50 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: moose2004

They voted for Kerry in 2004 and sent Murtha back with something like a 65% of the vote in 2008. It only went to McCain by like 1%


16 posted on 05/12/2010 8:31:02 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

They can’t give up all that Federal Tax Money.


17 posted on 05/12/2010 8:31:36 AM PDT by bmwcyle (Thank You God for Freeing the Navy Seals)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

Likely Voters, also a one day poll with a 4.9% MOE. I still believe Burns is winning by 4 or more points. Also, Critz has to be considered the “incumbent,” which means he’s in trouble if he’s polling well below 50%. Daily Kos/Research 2000 had Burns +6 in late April.


18 posted on 05/12/2010 8:33:24 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

“and who do not support Obama, Obamacare, deficit spending and debt.”

This is Critz’s achilles heel.


19 posted on 05/12/2010 8:35:28 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman
Critz is running as the de facto incumbent and, if he can't break 50% just one week before the primary, then he's in trouble.

I loathed John Murtha for years and I'd love to see Burns win but I think what you are saying is wishful thinking. I hope you're right but Critz has managed to present himself as a "centrist" but, he's as scummy as Murtha. Birds of a feather flock together.
20 posted on 05/12/2010 8:40:11 AM PDT by no dems
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: no dems

The good thing is Burn’s supporters are much more motivated to vote then Critz’s.


21 posted on 05/12/2010 8:42:39 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: moose2004

This really a crazy election. Burns could get elected to serve the rest of Murtha’s term, but lose the primary and therefore would be a lame duck. How nutty can it get?


22 posted on 05/12/2010 8:45:00 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy (tHE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

“McCain won the district by maybe 1% Kerry won the district in 2004. It is not a swing district at all.”


What is your definition of a “swing district”? Mine is a district that could swing to either party in any particular election. Given that President Bush got 49% in the PA-12 in 2004 and McCain got 50% in the district in 2008, it seems to me that its recent electoral performance proves it to be a district that could vote for either the Democrat or the Republican notwithstanding the fact that Murtha held it comfortably for decades.


23 posted on 05/12/2010 8:45:49 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Old Retired Army Guy

Very good point.


24 posted on 05/12/2010 8:46:30 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie
Correct on both counts. It is not a swing district. It is very much RAT heavy. But it is winnable. Those who see Critz in person are very unimpressed. Those who see only his television ads tend to be more gullible.

I'm surrounded by this district on three sides and know a lot of people who live in it. Nobody I know will admit supporting Critz. But it is a skewed sample as few of the people with whom I associate live off the government teat.

25 posted on 05/12/2010 8:46:32 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: AuH2ORepublican
Swing districts are ones that elect Republicans and Democrats in fairly equal measure. MN 1 is a swing district. Swing districts are not ones that GOP Presidential candidates lose, or barely win, but that also return election after election Democrat congrescirttiers with huge vote margins.

The notion that this was a "Winnable" seat was wishful thinking

26 posted on 05/12/2010 8:51:11 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman
Good news here

. Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D-W.Va.) lost his bid for a 15th term Tuesday in a primary defeat that further affirms the anti-incumbent sentiment coursing through the country. He is the first House member to lose a reelection bid in the 2010 campaign, and his defeat comes days after Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) was knocked off the November ballot in that state's convention process.

27 posted on 05/12/2010 8:51:36 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Old Retired Army Guy
Critz could also win the special election and lose the general election to Bill Russell or even Tim Burns. Primaries in Pennsylvania tend to have very low turnout. I think even the well-publicized match-up between Hillary and Zer0 two years ago failed to break 50%.

The activists tend to dominate primaries. A lot of them will be voting for Bill Russell just to repudiate the RINO wing of the GOP who runs the state party. Hopefully, these same people will be voting for Tim Burns against Critz for the unexpired Murtha term.

28 posted on 05/12/2010 8:51:37 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

From this poll and others I have read today it’s obvious that the American people have not been hurt enough yet by the Democrats for them to wake up. Maybe they never will wake up...


29 posted on 05/12/2010 8:55:52 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: IllumiNaughtyByNature
Burns' internal polling shows him leading Critz by 7 percentage points among voters who can correctly name the election day,...

So the ones who know when to go vote (they probably even know WHERE) are going to be the deciding factor.

30 posted on 05/12/2010 9:14:54 AM PDT by nina0113
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman
" but he is tainted with having been put up by the RINO wing of the GOP."

That would be the Ellsie Hillman wing of the party that despises conservatives.

31 posted on 05/12/2010 9:15:42 AM PDT by Pietro
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nina0113

one can only hope.


32 posted on 05/12/2010 9:27:04 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (3V3Ry71N' 084M4 D03z 83N3f17Z MU5l1mz. c01NC1d3nc3?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: nina0113

“Burns’ internal polling shows him leading Critz by 7 percentage points among voters who can correctly name the election day,.”

This is a very interesting way of describing “Likely” or “Most Likely Voters.”


33 posted on 05/12/2010 9:45:51 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

My Dad, when he was alive, would swing his vote against the party in power. Rep president=dem congress or vice versa. He was a resident of sw PA....steel mill worker


34 posted on 05/12/2010 9:51:07 AM PDT by MadelineZapeezda (Promoted by God to be a mother!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...................Thanks, Susan!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

FYI, I called the NRCCC, they pointed out that 62% of respondents to this poll are Dems. Is that a fair sample?


35 posted on 05/12/2010 9:56:21 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: moose2004
FYI, I called the NRCCC, they pointed out that 62% of respondents to this poll are Dems. Is that a fair sample?

It's not a fair sample, but it makes it even funnier that of the ones who even know when Election Day is, Burns is winning.

36 posted on 05/12/2010 10:36:38 AM PDT by nina0113
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman
Critz is advertising that he's pro-life, pro-gun and against ObamaCare

Same old "blue-dog" song. Tout your "independence" from the dem party and act "conservative," only to fold up and kneel at Queen Nancy's feet during a vote of a critical piece of legislation. For the dems, it always comes down to protecting their party above all else. Not buying it. Ever.

37 posted on 05/12/2010 10:47:30 AM PDT by ScottinVA (RIP to the country I love...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: nina0113

I agree.


38 posted on 05/12/2010 11:01:20 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: Old Retired Army Guy
this is a confusing article....

is the primary next week?

or is it the election for the seat?

or is it both....a primary to see who will run in November AND an actual election to fill the seat NOW?

we must not let the rat win.....

39 posted on 05/12/2010 4:26:55 PM PDT by cherry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

just wait til the NRA starts supporting the rat like they did Murtha....


40 posted on 05/12/2010 4:28:52 PM PDT by cherry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

The Republican Party in Pennsylvania makes me want to throw up!!!


41 posted on 05/12/2010 4:52:08 PM PDT by GregB (Put land mines on the border with mexico!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cherry

Both are May 18!


42 posted on 05/12/2010 4:53:02 PM PDT by GregB (Put land mines on the border with mexico!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: AdmSmith; Berosus; bigheadfred; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; ...
Thanks Vigilanteman.
Critz leads GOP nominee Tim Burns 44 percent to 38 percent with one week to go... A majority of Democrats back Critz in the primary over challengers Ryan Bucchianeri and Ron Mackell Jr. Burns is locked in a statistical dead heat with Army veteran Bill Russell for the Republican nomination, according to the poll.

43 posted on 05/12/2010 7:36:39 PM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson