Skip to comments.Murtha aide pulls ahead in special election race
Posted on 05/12/2010 8:14:43 AM PDT by Vigilanteman
A close primary race has divided Republicans in the late Rep. John Murtha's district and has helped Democrat Mark Critz take the lead in the special election to replace him, according to a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey.
Critz leads GOP nominee Tim Burns 44 percent to 38 percent with one week to go. Voters on Tuesday will pick between the two to fill Murtha's unexpired term and will choose their parties' nominees for the general election in November.
A majority of Democrats back Critz in the primary over challengers Ryan Bucchianeri and Ron Mackell Jr.
Burns is locked in a statistical dead heat with Army veteran Bill Russell for the Republican nomination, according to the poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at pittsburghlive.com ...
Bill Russell has been airing a lot of radio advertising, all positive, pro-conservative and nothing anti-Burns.
Burns really can't attack Russell and win. He can only hope that voters will see through Critz and ride the anti-incumbent express to win the unexpired term of Murtha, even though he may well lose the primary to Russell for the full two year term. Burns is not exactly a RINO, but he is tainted with having been put up by the RINO wing of the GOP.
Stupid people elct stupid people.
One day poll of 400 Likely Voters with a 5% MOE, I’m not buying it. I think Burns leads the special election by 4 - 7 points.
Well if runs into trouble, he can always fall back on what do what worked for ScuMurtha:
1) Directly insult the voters.
2) Threaten the very industries which support a good portion of the electorate.
Burns' internal polling shows him leading Critz by 7 percentage points among voters who can correctly name the election day, which shows "intensity is on our side," said campaign manager Kent Gates.
Is this a poll of registered voters? In a district this heavily Dem, a poll of registered voters, as oppose to likely voters, Critz should be winning handily.
Why the late move?
Another case of the better being the enemy of the good, resulting in the bad winning?
I kind of figured this would happen. The district is unfortunately filled with a lot of reflexive Democrat voters who would pull the lever for a ‘Rat if he was the devil himself.
Plus, Critz or his surrogates have been running a lot of negative ads against Burns, one of which claims that Burns “supports a 23% sales tax on everything.” It’s obviously a reference to his support of the Fair Tax in an old interview, and fails to mention that it is (1) a proposal only and 2) the tax would replace income taxes and be reimbursable up to the poverty level. No matter; it seems to have resonated among people in the district that I’ve spoken to.
Likely Voters. But, many of the Dems in this district are “Reagan Democrats” who often vote Repub (McCain 2008), and who do not support Obama, Obamacare, deficit spending and debt.
A lot of negative things have been said on this forum about Burns, most of it crap by people who don't know what the hell they're talking about.
It's true that Burns was chosen by the hideous RINO PA Chairman Bob Gleason, but Burns is far more of a conservative than Gleason would have wished for, I guarantee you.
Having said all this, I'll most likely vote for Russell. I've met him and he's everything people have said about him.
But if Burns comes out of this thing on top, well, we could do a hell of a lot worse than him.
A hell of a lot worse...
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It is really not clear from the poll if this is registered voters or likely voters. The polling outfit, Susquehanna, is generally considered credible.
McCain won the district by maybe 1% Kerry won the district in 2004. It is not a swing district at all.
One argument against Critz is that, lacking Murtha’s enormous seniority and connections to the defense industry, he would be incapable of producing Murtha-sized pork packages.
So you get someone just as corrupt as Murtha, but without the ability to deliver the pork.
Seems to me that would be a realistic approach to a campaign ad.
They voted for Kerry in 2004 and sent Murtha back with something like a 65% of the vote in 2008. It only went to McCain by like 1%
They can’t give up all that Federal Tax Money.
Likely Voters, also a one day poll with a 4.9% MOE. I still believe Burns is winning by 4 or more points. Also, Critz has to be considered the “incumbent,” which means he’s in trouble if he’s polling well below 50%. Daily Kos/Research 2000 had Burns +6 in late April.
“and who do not support Obama, Obamacare, deficit spending and debt.”
This is Critz’s achilles heel.
The good thing is Burn’s supporters are much more motivated to vote then Critz’s.
This really a crazy election. Burns could get elected to serve the rest of Murtha’s term, but lose the primary and therefore would be a lame duck. How nutty can it get?
“McCain won the district by maybe 1% Kerry won the district in 2004. It is not a swing district at all.”
Very good point.
I'm surrounded by this district on three sides and know a lot of people who live in it. Nobody I know will admit supporting Critz. But it is a skewed sample as few of the people with whom I associate live off the government teat.
The notion that this was a "Winnable" seat was wishful thinking
. Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D-W.Va.) lost his bid for a 15th term Tuesday in a primary defeat that further affirms the anti-incumbent sentiment coursing through the country. He is the first House member to lose a reelection bid in the 2010 campaign, and his defeat comes days after Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) was knocked off the November ballot in that state's convention process.
The activists tend to dominate primaries. A lot of them will be voting for Bill Russell just to repudiate the RINO wing of the GOP who runs the state party. Hopefully, these same people will be voting for Tim Burns against Critz for the unexpired Murtha term.
From this poll and others I have read today it’s obvious that the American people have not been hurt enough yet by the Democrats for them to wake up. Maybe they never will wake up...
So the ones who know when to go vote (they probably even know WHERE) are going to be the deciding factor.
That would be the Ellsie Hillman wing of the party that despises conservatives.
one can only hope.
“Burns’ internal polling shows him leading Critz by 7 percentage points among voters who can correctly name the election day,.”
This is a very interesting way of describing “Likely” or “Most Likely Voters.”
My Dad, when he was alive, would swing his vote against the party in power. Rep president=dem congress or vice versa. He was a resident of sw PA....steel mill worker
FYI, I called the NRCCC, they pointed out that 62% of respondents to this poll are Dems. Is that a fair sample?
It's not a fair sample, but it makes it even funnier that of the ones who even know when Election Day is, Burns is winning.
Same old "blue-dog" song. Tout your "independence" from the dem party and act "conservative," only to fold up and kneel at Queen Nancy's feet during a vote of a critical piece of legislation. For the dems, it always comes down to protecting their party above all else. Not buying it. Ever.
is the primary next week?
or is it the election for the seat?
or is it both....a primary to see who will run in November AND an actual election to fill the seat NOW?
we must not let the rat win.....
just wait til the NRA starts supporting the rat like they did Murtha....
The Republican Party in Pennsylvania makes me want to throw up!!!
Both are May 18!
Critz leads GOP nominee Tim Burns 44 percent to 38 percent with one week to go... A majority of Democrats back Critz in the primary over challengers Ryan Bucchianeri and Ron Mackell Jr. Burns is locked in a statistical dead heat with Army veteran Bill Russell for the Republican nomination, according to the poll.