Skip to comments.Murtha aide pulls ahead in special election race
Posted on 05/12/2010 8:14:43 AM PDT by Vigilanteman
A close primary race has divided Republicans in the late Rep. John Murtha's district and has helped Democrat Mark Critz take the lead in the special election to replace him, according to a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey.
Critz leads GOP nominee Tim Burns 44 percent to 38 percent with one week to go. Voters on Tuesday will pick between the two to fill Murtha's unexpired term and will choose their parties' nominees for the general election in November.
A majority of Democrats back Critz in the primary over challengers Ryan Bucchianeri and Ron Mackell Jr.
Burns is locked in a statistical dead heat with Army veteran Bill Russell for the Republican nomination, according to the poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at pittsburghlive.com ...
Bill Russell has been airing a lot of radio advertising, all positive, pro-conservative and nothing anti-Burns.
Burns really can't attack Russell and win. He can only hope that voters will see through Critz and ride the anti-incumbent express to win the unexpired term of Murtha, even though he may well lose the primary to Russell for the full two year term. Burns is not exactly a RINO, but he is tainted with having been put up by the RINO wing of the GOP.
Stupid people elct stupid people.
One day poll of 400 Likely Voters with a 5% MOE, I’m not buying it. I think Burns leads the special election by 4 - 7 points.
Well if runs into trouble, he can always fall back on what do what worked for ScuMurtha:
1) Directly insult the voters.
2) Threaten the very industries which support a good portion of the electorate.
Burns' internal polling shows him leading Critz by 7 percentage points among voters who can correctly name the election day, which shows "intensity is on our side," said campaign manager Kent Gates.
Is this a poll of registered voters? In a district this heavily Dem, a poll of registered voters, as oppose to likely voters, Critz should be winning handily.
Why the late move?
Another case of the better being the enemy of the good, resulting in the bad winning?
I kind of figured this would happen. The district is unfortunately filled with a lot of reflexive Democrat voters who would pull the lever for a ‘Rat if he was the devil himself.
Plus, Critz or his surrogates have been running a lot of negative ads against Burns, one of which claims that Burns “supports a 23% sales tax on everything.” It’s obviously a reference to his support of the Fair Tax in an old interview, and fails to mention that it is (1) a proposal only and 2) the tax would replace income taxes and be reimbursable up to the poverty level. No matter; it seems to have resonated among people in the district that I’ve spoken to.
Likely Voters. But, many of the Dems in this district are “Reagan Democrats” who often vote Repub (McCain 2008), and who do not support Obama, Obamacare, deficit spending and debt.
A lot of negative things have been said on this forum about Burns, most of it crap by people who don't know what the hell they're talking about.
It's true that Burns was chosen by the hideous RINO PA Chairman Bob Gleason, but Burns is far more of a conservative than Gleason would have wished for, I guarantee you.
Having said all this, I'll most likely vote for Russell. I've met him and he's everything people have said about him.
But if Burns comes out of this thing on top, well, we could do a hell of a lot worse than him.
A hell of a lot worse...
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It is really not clear from the poll if this is registered voters or likely voters. The polling outfit, Susquehanna, is generally considered credible.
McCain won the district by maybe 1% Kerry won the district in 2004. It is not a swing district at all.
One argument against Critz is that, lacking Murtha’s enormous seniority and connections to the defense industry, he would be incapable of producing Murtha-sized pork packages.
So you get someone just as corrupt as Murtha, but without the ability to deliver the pork.
Seems to me that would be a realistic approach to a campaign ad.
They voted for Kerry in 2004 and sent Murtha back with something like a 65% of the vote in 2008. It only went to McCain by like 1%
They can’t give up all that Federal Tax Money.
Likely Voters, also a one day poll with a 4.9% MOE. I still believe Burns is winning by 4 or more points. Also, Critz has to be considered the “incumbent,” which means he’s in trouble if he’s polling well below 50%. Daily Kos/Research 2000 had Burns +6 in late April.
“and who do not support Obama, Obamacare, deficit spending and debt.”
This is Critz’s achilles heel.