It's the Sun, Stupid

National Post ^ | May 21, 2010 | Lawrence Solomon

[Paul Pierett]

Solar scientists are finally overcoming their fears and going public about the Sun-climate connection Four years ago, when I first started profiling scientists who were global warming skeptics, I soon learned two things: Solar scientists were overwhelmingly skeptical that humans caused climate change and, overwhelmingly, they were reluctant to go public with their views. Often, they refused to be quoted at all, saying they feared for their funding, or they feared other recriminations from climate scientists in the doomsayer camp.

[Paul Pierett]

Four years ago, I could seldom find anything on the web about Solar or sunspot activity and how it affects our climate. Two years ago, it began to grow. Now, finally.

These scientists are finally coming out of the woods onto the main highway.

The IPCC is ingrained in our government, schools, colleges, grant money, municipalities and policies and procedures. Even the hurricane predictions are based off old models and research thinking.

Since we are in a solar minimum, we had 9 named storms last year. How can we have 16 named storms this year. My SWAG, 7 named storms of 50/50 mix of tropical storms and hurricanes. More tropical depressions, though. Those kill too. Let's see who is right this coming Thanksgiving.

Sincerely,

Paul Pierett

[ETL]

The Center for Sun-Climate Research at the DNSC (Danish National Space Center) investigates the connection between variations in the intensity of cosmic rays and climatic changes on Earth. This field of research has been given the name 'cosmoclimatology'"..."Cosmic ray intensities – and therefore cloudiness – keep changing because the Sun's magnetic field varies in its ability to repel cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy, before they can reach the Earth." :
http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate
____________________________________________________

Climate debate and FAQ:

What is climate research at the DNSC? [Danish National Space Center]

The Earth’s climate is always changing. This has been the case in the geological and historical time and even during the last 150 years, where systematic climate measurements have been made, we have seen clear climate changes.

Climate changes have both a scientific and a social perspective. The social perspective is associated with the range of climate change that can be attributed to the increasing human induced contribution. The scientific perspective is an endeavour to understand the full complex system of the various sources of climate change and their mutual interactions.

The Danish National Space Center, DNSC, comprises the country's largest collected expertise in the scientific disciplines that play a major and documented role in the understanding of climate change both in geological and historical time, namely variations in solar activity. DNSC regards it essential that this collected expertise is being used in an attempt to understand the natural causes of climate change in order to evaluate the contribution of natural causes to global change. Taking into account the large uncertainty associated with the estimated human contribution, a good research based estimate of the range of natural climate variations is an essential information.

DNSC is basing its effort in this area on own scientific results – observational, experimental, and theoretical. The scientific results have been published internationally and indicate that the varying activity of the Sun is indeed the largest and most systematic contributor to natural climate variations. The effect goes through solar modulation of the cosmic radiation, which affects the formation of aerosols and thereby also the formation of clouds. Even though a physical mechanism connecting cosmic rays to aerosol formation has been found experimentally, no climate model has yet made an attempt to include such an effect.

That there exists a significant contribution from solar activity variations to global temperature increase does not, however, exclude other contributions to the rising global temperature, natural as well as human. DNSC, however, is focused on establishing the best possible and scientifically based evaluation of the size of solar induced effects on climate.

Why is the climate changing?

Climate is subject to influences by both natural and human forces, including greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar activity, and land use change. The climate system is extremely complex and any estimate of the human contribution to climate change is very uncertain.

What are the natural causes to climate change?

Changes in the Sun contribute to climate change. Solar activity has been exceptionally high in the 20th century compared to the last 400 years and possibly compared to the past 8,000 years. When solar activity is high, the flux of galactic cosmic rays is reduced due to increased magnetic shielding by the Sun. The cosmic rays may influence Earths climate through formation of low lying clouds.

How can cosmic rays influence cloud formation?

Cosmic rays ionize the atmosphere and an experiment performed at the Danish National Space Center has found that the production of aerosols in a sample atmosphere with condensable gases (such as sulphuric acid and water vapor) depends on the amount of ionization. Since aerosols work as precursors for formation of cloud droplets, this is an indication that cosmic rays affect climate.

Climate models only include the effects of the small variations in the direct solar radiation (infrared, visible and UV). The effects of cosmic rays on clouds are not included in models and the models do a rather poor job of simulating clouds in the present climate. Since cloud feedbacks are a large source of uncertainty, this is a reason for concern when viewing climate model predictions.

http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate/climate-debate-and-faq
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Here's an excellent ~new book out on the subject titled "The Chilling Stars, 2nd Edition: A Cosmic View of Climate Change". It's written by one of the top scientists advancing the theory (Henrik Svensmark, of the above mentioned Danish National Space Center/DNSC).

"The authors explain their theory that sub-atomic particles from exploded stars have more effect on the climate than manmade CO2."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/books/t/1840468157-the_chilling_stars_the_new_theory_of_climate_change.htm

Amazon Books: "The Chilling Stars, 2nd Edition: A Cosmic View of Climate Change"
http://www.amazon.com/Chilling-Stars-2nd-Cosmic-Climate/dp/1840468661 zs90]
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Here's a sunspot chart showing the various peaks and dips throughout the past centuries. Note the "Medieval Max". It corresponds to the "Medieval Warm Period". The "Maunder Minimum" corresponds to the "Little Ice Age", and the "Modern Max" to the recent warming trend we had been experiencing, at least until the past 15 years or so.

"Changes in carbon-14 concentration in the Earth's atmosphere, which serves as a long term proxy of solar activity. Note the present day is on the left-hand side of this figure."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity

[ETL]

From BBC News [yr: 2004]:
"A new [2004] analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years. Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past. They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer."..."In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun's surface.

This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it. It coincided with a spell of prolonged cold weather often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Solar scientists strongly suspect there is a link between the two events - but the exact mechanism remains elusive."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3869753.stm

[ETL]

100,000-Year Climate Pattern Linked To Sun's Magnetic Cycles:

ScienceDaily (Jun. 7, 2002) HANOVER, N.H.
Thanks to new calculations by a Dartmouth geochemist, scientists are now looking at the earth's climate history in a new light. Mukul Sharma, Assistant Professor of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth, examined existing sets of geophysical data and noticed something remarkable: the sun's magnetic activity is varying in 100,000-year cycles, a much longer time span than previously thought, and this solar activity, in turn, may likely cause the 100,000-year climate cycles on earth. This research helps scientists understand past climate trends and prepare for future ones.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/06/020607073439.htm

[ETL]

From NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory's "Not So Frequently Asked Questions" section:

Q-Does the number of sunspots have any effect on the climate here on Earth?

A-Sunspots are slightly cooler areas on the surface of the Sun, due to the intense magnetic fields, so they radiate a little less energy than the surroundings. However, there are usually nearby areas associated with the sunspots that are a little hotter (called falculae), and they more than compensate. The result is that there is a little bit more radiation coming from the Sun when it has more sunspots, but the effect is so small that it has very little impact on the weather and climate on Earth.

However, there are more important indirect effects: sunspots are associated with what we call "active regions", with large magnetic structures containing very hot material (being held in place by the magnetism). This causes more ultraviolet (or UV) radiation (the rays that give you a suntan or sunburn), and extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV). These types of radiation have an impact on the chemistry of the upper atmosphere (e.g. producing ozone). Since some of these products act as greenhouse gases, the number of sunspots (through association with active regions) may influence the climate in this way.

Many active regions produce giant outflows of material that are called Coronal Mass Ejections. These ejections drag with them some of the more intense magnetic fields that are found in the active regions. The magnetic fields act as a shield for high-energy particles coming from various sources in our galaxy (outside the solar system). These "cosmic rays" (CRs) cause ionization of molecules in the atmosphere, and thereby can cause clouds to form (because the ionized molecules or dust particle can act as "seeds" for drop formation).

If clouds are formed very high in the atmosphere, the net result is a heating of the Earth - it acts as a "blanket" that keeps warmth in.

If clouds are formed lower down in the atmosphere, they reflect sunlight better than they keep heat inside, so the net result is cooling.

Which processes are dominant is still a matter of research.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/classroom/notsofaq.html#SUNSPOT_CLIMATE

[Paladin2]

http://www.leif.org/research/

[ripley]

“...they feared recriminations from climate scientists in the doomsayer camp...”

Why would they fear to speak unless the “doomsayer” camp is
made up of a bunch of psychotic thugs prone toward
anonymous violence?

IMHO

[muawiyah]

The director of the IPCC is a devout Hindu who focuses on the goddess Mother of the Sun. The Sun god, in that particular branch of belief, is immutable and without blemish.

In short, these guys don't believe the Sun can vary its energy levels.

[ETL]

In short, these guys don't believe the Sun can vary its energy levels.

The Sun actually doesn't seem to vary much in temperature intensity (heat output). The supposed sun-climate link has to do with its magnetic variations, particularly sun spot cycles.

[Jack Hydrazine]

The orbit of the Earth around the Sun has the biggest effect.

[old curmudgeon]

Do you have any idea how the power of government grants influences the scientific community?

A couple of years ago, I googled something like “government grants global warming” .....and the numbers I saw were mind boggling.

The same thing is going on in almost every branch of scientific research.

Research has become corrupted by grant money.

Who gets money for concluding that a particular topic is BS? On the contrary, that ends the grant money.

[Will88]

First graders could have told Algore and others that the sun probably had a lot to do with temperature change and climate change on earth. Maybe this obvious starting point will now be studied thoroughly, and likely proven to be the main cause of climate change on earth.

[WVKayaker]

[ripley]

“Do you have any idea how the power of government grants influences the scientific community?”

Do you have any idea what thugs will do to continue the flow of money?

(Respectfully asked.)

[steelyourfaith]

 

Beowulf's Compilation of
Global Warming is happening throughout the Solar System. Keyword "SOLAR"

• Global Warming on Jupiter
• Global Warming on Jupiter
• Global Warming on Jupiter
• Global Warming on Jupiter
• Global Waring on Saturn
• Global Warming on Neptune
• Global Warming on Neptune moon
• Global Warming on Pluto
• Global Warming on Mars
• Global Warming on Mars
• Global Warming on Mars
• Global Warming on Mars
• Global Warming on Mars
• Global Warming on Mars
• Global Warming on Mars

[ETL]

The orbit of the Earth around the Sun has the biggest effect.

If you're referring to the 3 basic orbital deviations, they are believed by many to be the driving mechanism for the ice ages, not so much other temperature variations. On the other hand, there is a powerful correlation between the solar activity cycle (magnetic in nature) and temperate changes on Earth (see earlier posts above).

[old curmudgeon]

University researchers do not need thugs.

University research departments who cause the grant spigot to be turned off are not popular with their universities.

Check up on your alma mater some time and see how much government grant money they get annually.

I once worked on a very large project with a nationally respected state university and got to see some of what goes on behind the scenes and I did not like it.

[politicianslie]

“...they feared...”

It’s all about control. Climategate is simply another scam to take large sums of money from Americans and use it to enslave them.

Decades ago the governments learned how to control the population. The NAZIs took millions of people and killed them in gas chambers and the population quietly went about their business fearful of being found out.

CONSPIRACY THEORIST: Educated fools will do anything to keep from having their name associated with CONSPIRACY THEORY of any type.

BIRTHERS: All you need to know is that a President has never shown a valid birth certificate to comply with a simple requirement in the US Constitution. When I was a Navy Officer, they wanted to see a valid birth certificate, I can’t fly an airplane without a valid birth certificate. I guess I’m a BIRTHER because I want to see his papers.

DENIERS: The climate change debate is over, it’s proven, now let the anti-American radical left tax and regulate American energy to put the country back into third world status.

FINANCIAL COLLAPSE: Government regulations put people into houses that had no hope of paying for them. You’d have to be a CONSPIRACY THEORIST to think the Radical Democrats would actually do this to destroy the American economy to get control, Barney Frank and Maxine Waters really loved Fredie and the $$ they were throwing at the poor. The HOUSING BUBBLE was caused by the Government but you are not allowed to say or think it.

DRILL BABY DRILL: You’d have to be a CONSPIRACY THEORIST to think there are radicals in America that would purposely want us to buy overseas oil rather than produce here, $billions upon billions flowing overseas destroying our country.

NUCLEAR POWER: They’ve lost the debate but spending billions for NUC POWER isn’t so bad now but in the 1970’s and 1980’s the radical leftists would have killed to prevent these killers of the environment.

HEALTH CARE CRISES: My insurance pays for every illegal alien that approaches a hospital, the radical left insists that all people here illegally have access to the same health care I do. You’d have to be a nut to think there are people in America who would destroy the health care system to get control.

ARIZONA: To enforce US Law to prevent illegals from crossing the border is RACIST. This from a President and Attorney General who say they have not read the law.

In the United States, CONSPIRACY THEORY hit the front page when an American President was killed in front of hundreds of people and if you do not believe an obvious lie, you are a CONSPIRACY THEORIST. You are not allowed to even think it was the people who gained the most from this hideous crime, the Vice President and FBI Director, both murderous scum who enjoyed hiding behind the big lie.

Americans have been manipulated to cease all rational though, the STATE CONTROLLED MEDIA will tell you what to think.

[Jack Hydrazine]

Exactly!

[Paul Pierett]

-
In my writings, I caught hatred and meanest and at best, H...! The population behind IPCC believe that they can cure their problems. Sad.

They will wake up freezing one day, no power due to a snow storm, unprepared for a minimum.

Thanks for your input.

Paul