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To: worst-case scenario
The Chinese would be fools to attack us. Economically, we are their manufacturing bread and butter - not to mention that they hold massive amounts of our debt instruments.

Maybe so, but its also not so clear cut as that. As we sink deeper into depression will US consumers continue to buy Chinese products, if Americans stop buying them because of economic troubles caused by the depression, then the Chinese will no longer be deterred from fighting the US for fear of losing its share of the US market because they will have already lost the US market. In such a scenario, China would probably then turn to bolster its own domestic market, and work on developing new markets altogether which would give the US less influence over China. Also, Chinese aggressiveness (which has become boldly aggressive towards the US as of late) will depend on other circumstances and other mitigating factors.

The Chinese will not idly sit by and watch the US fight a war on their doorstep in Korea (which it considers to be within its sphere of influence.) They will see a major military presence there as a serious external threat. Also, the Russians will probably not want the US in Korea either, since the US has been surrounding Russia with strategic bases. Most of the US manufacturing base has been outsourced, we are not what we used to be. Also, if the US is engaged in a multi-front war in the middle-east already, the US's power to deal with China would be substantially weakened.

As for us being safe because the Chinese own our debt/treasuries, that is only a temporary security (no pun intended) for the US. The Chinese know that we will probably never be able to pay the debt back to them. We are bankrupt. If we pay them back it will most likely be through monetizing the debt, which would make the money worthless to them anyway. (I suppose that the US could also offer its land/natural resources as collateral to China for its debt, but that would be bordering complete financial slavery and itself be a national security threat. I wouldn't put it past Obama to try it though.)Regardless, if America stops buying Chinese goods or our dollar is rendered worthless because of inflation, then it will become much more difficult to keep an increasingly aggressive Chinese government in check.

88 posted on 06/11/2010 3:02:14 PM PDT by old republic
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To: old republic

I disagree with you on only one thing: that the Chinese would *let* us fight a war in Korea. The odds are better that the Chinese would declare a “Jiabao Doctrine,” claiming that any attempts by foreign powers to “interfere” in Asian affairs would be treated as aggression against China.

Personally, I do not think that the Chinese wish to subdue America by military force. They can do it by owning us.Their contempt for our self-indulgent behaviors leads them to believe that there is no way that the US will not eventually collapse under its own sloth and greed for consumer goods.


89 posted on 06/11/2010 3:12:27 PM PDT by worst-case scenario (Striving to reach the light)
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