The UK’s Chatham House and insurance network Lloyds issued a joint report today predicting a very substantial rise in oil prices and costs to develop and produce in hostile environments. Lloyds insures these deepwater wells and operators, so count on what they are saying about costs to come true at least as far as insurance is concerned. The CH report does not match my personal view on alternative energy and carbon legislation etc, but is probably very close to the reality of where US and European government decision makers land. It is an interesting but lengthy read - executive summary is worth a glance. Key findings:
Businesses which prepare for and take advantage of the new energy reality will prosper - failure to do so could be catastrophic
Market dynamics and environmental factors mean business can no longer rely on low cost traditional energy sources
China and growing Asian economies will play an increasingly important role in global energy security
We are heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike
Energy infrastructure will become increasingly vulnerable as a result of climate change and operations in harsher environments
Lack of global regulation on climate change is creating an environment of uncertainty for business, which is damaging investment plans
To manage increasing energy costs and carbon exposure businesses must reduce fossil fuel consumption
Business must address energy-related risks to supply chains and the increasing vulnerability of ‘just-in-time’ models
Investment in renewable energy and ‘intelligent’ infrastructure is booming. This revolution presents huge opportunities for new business partnerships
Download the paper here http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/891/