Recent RCP-recorded polls — nearly all except Rasmussen — show a tilt back to the dems. I’m thinking the GOP will take 25-30, with 5 Senate seats.
I have a friend who spoke with a Republican congressman. They anticipate a gain of 100 seats.
I like crunching numbers. If all of the lucky breaks go the GOP way, we could gain as many as 80 seats in the House of Representatives. It's unlikely ... but the possibility exists. Far more likely is something in a 40-50 seat range. And if the lucky breaks all go against us, I could see the GOP gaining no more than 20-25 seats, possibly even less.
Never underestimate the possibility that a genuine PR disaster -- a Mark Foley type event, for example, or a Bush DUI type event, or a Jack Abramoff type event -- could happen at any time, and to either party. It could happen weeks, days, even hours before the election. It could be of any magnitude, from minor to major. The three events I mentioned were timed perfectly, to cause maximum damage to the GOP in the elections that followed.
As you can see, our good friends in the Democratic Party have become very adept at digging up this stuff, and then flinging it at us -- with flawless timing every time.
That's why we have to do thorough oppo research on our own candidates, as well as the Democrats' candidates. And it's why candidates like Sharron Angle and Linda McMahon worry me. This Alvin Greene fellow in South Carolina shows that it happens to both parties. This guy has a pending sex-related felony charge, and he's black.
I like the possibilities that the Rod Blagojevich trial offers. Lots of potential gold to be mined there, since the list of people who were interested in acquiring that Senate seat from Blago is rather long. And Blago himself could say anything.
Check it out.
We’re going to give the democrats one of the losses. Marky Mark Schauer is going to be sent back to Battle Creek.