Hooray!
I expect that sometime this week, Governor Manchin will announce that he believes that the West Virginia law on special elections is flawed, that he supports an early special election, and that he will ask a special session of the legislature to modify the law to permit a special election this November. He will then announce his candidacy.
He will do this because he now believes that his best chance for election to the Senate is this year. There may be a blacklash if he reneges on his promise not to appoint himself, and its hard to predict what a race in 2012 may look like. In 2012, he might have two opponents: a Republican challenger and the person he appoints to fill the seat.
The best chance for Republicans is probably to wait until 2012 for a special election, Manchin is very popular right now.
All of this is happening because the Democrats have figured out that Manchin can win in November. He is very popular and will feed on the sympathy vote from Byrd's death. By 2012, Byrd's memory will have faded and who knows what kind of shape the Democrats will be in. Their chance is now and they are taking it. Not good news for Republicans.