I think you are being too pessimistic regarding the GOP’s chances in November. I think that the GOP has a realistic chance of gaining 12 net Senate seats (for these purposes, I’m counting RINOs like Kirk and Castle as Republicans), and if you made me make a prediction right now I would say that the GOP picks up 11, since the environment won’t get any better for the Democrats come November. In the House, I’ve been talking about a broad range from 50-80 seats for a few months now, and I’ve heard nothing to make me want to reconsider my prediction; if anything, I think that the GOP will gain closer to 75 than to 55. But the election is still over 3 and 1/2 months away, and we won’t know exactly how things will shake out until at least after Labor Day.
Many people think that I’m being pessimistic, but I think that I’m being realistic, based on 2008 and ‘06 election results. Please give me a list of at least 40 House districts that will change from Democrat to Repubican, this year.