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Dear Mr. Dudley, My letter to you on July 16, 2010 extended the Well Integrity Test period contingent upon the completion of seismic surveys, robust monitoring for indications of leakage, and acoustic testing by the NOAA vessel PISCES in the immediate vicinity of the well head. Given the current observations from the test, including the detected seep a distance from the well and undetermined anomalies at the well head, monitoring of the seabed is of paramount importance during the test period.
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So if that is really General Allens letter, seepage is a fact. And you will probably never see it on a public squiddy (ROV). My guess - They blew a hole into a second higher up reservoir area and are now filling it up. That matches perfect with the pressure anomalies. That higher up reservoir area was empty because it seeps. While this is not the worse case scenario, it does create one big cluster puck. IMHO.
And you sir are probably pretty close to being right.
They are probably seeing the invasion of gas into upper strata on the shallow seismic already.