"The level of public debt in many industrial countries is on an unsustainable path. Current budget deficits, partly cyclical but also swollen by policy responses to the crisis, are large in relation to GDP... high levels of public debt may lower long-term growth and ultimately endanger monetary stability. These risks underscore the need for credible measures to reduce current fiscal deficits in several industrial countries."
Bank for International Settlements, 80
th Annual Report, June 2010.
Hoven's Index for July 14, 2010
Government debt in 2010 as a percentage of GDP:
Portugal: 95%
Italy: 132%
Greece: 129%
Spain: 73%
US: 90%
Government deficit in 2010 as a percentage of GDP:
Portugal: 7.4%
Italy: 5.2%
Greece: 8.1%
Spain: 9.4%
US: 10.7%
From
Chapter 9 of
The 29th Day
| Year |
US National Debt $billions |
As a % of GDP |
US Population (Millions) |
US Natl Debt Per Person |
Increase by Decade |
| 1970 |
$380.9 |
37.6% |
203.3 |
$1,874 |
|
| 1980 |
$909.0 |
33.3% |
216.5 |
$4,199 |
x 2.2 |
| 1990 |
$3,206.3 |
55.9% |
248.7 |
$12,892 |
x 3.1 |
| 2000 |
$5,628.7 |
58.0% |
281.4 |
$20,003 |
x 1.6 |
| 2010 (proj) |
$14,456.3 |
98.1% |
310.2 |
$46,602 |
x 2.3 |
source: en.wikipedia.org... and my calculator
Does the last column look exponential to you? It looks exponential to me.
So we will need an exponential solution to control the US National Debt.
But wait a minute! Who says we have a problem? Maybe we don’t need a solution, exponential or otherwise. Why not just let it keep growing?
It's worked for us so far.
Well, at least somebody has always loaned us the money to pay for it.
Oh, oh. Look at the second column. That 98.1% of GDP in 2010 doesn’t look too good. That means the US National Debt is almost as big as US "annual income." I hope whoever is lending us the money will keep believing we can pay it back.