Geert's popularity is increasing. Latest polls show that Geert's party, which won 24 seats in the June election, would win 35 if the election were held now.
The shift comes at the expense of the conservative VVD party. Conservative voters were upset over VVD talking to lefty parties about forming a coalition, probably correctly assuming that all the "compromising" would be one-way.
The problem with the Dutch system, is that coalitions can always get around Geert, because he’s not going to get 50 percent of the seats. Probably the only way it would happen is if Geert is the senior partner.
Most VVD voters wanted a coalition with Wilders (PVV), and now are disappointed. Many would have voted Wilders if they knew that Rutte preferred labour and greens.