Battery Cost Forecasts and The Origin of Specious

Seeking Alpha ^ | July 23, 2010 | John Peterson

[arthurus]

Over the last two years I've patiently analyzed the evolving price and performance forecasts of electric vehicle advocates and lithium-ion battery developers. In the process I've shown them to be possible, but unlikely, and interdependent to the point where a single flawed assumption can level the entire house of cards.

I've also puzzled over the broader question of why supposedly reasonable businessmen would encourage market expectations that are so aggressive that the probability of delays, cost overruns, performance shortfalls and other predictable failures approaches certainty. Everyone knows that the stock market reacts badly to disappointment, so I've never been able to figure out why companies would voluntarily set themselves up for that kind of pain.

[MrPiper]

Over the last two years I've patiently analyzed the evolving price and performance forecasts of electric vehicles,

me too,, they suck... usually at best, 40 miles per charge,,usually 20 miles... I need 400 miles to even consider one. Long live hydrocarbons!!!!!!!!!!

[Bob]

Excellent article. To me, this is the real "money quote":

The answer fell into place when I noticed that (a) the DOE press release uses a hyperlink to the White House for people who want to read the full text of the Report, and (b) the Report is not even hosted on the DOE's server. Since I've never encountered a situation where the government agency that generated a report left it out of their official record, the clear inference is that the Report is political theatre wrapped in a DOE cover.

In the absence of a blatant political motivation, is there any doubt that the DOE would have hosted its report on its own website? With this administration, it's all politics, all the time.

[Chode]

i'd love to see their study on battery life at -10degrees...

[jonrick46]

The costs of the battery is falling and it will be costly to replace until 2015. The 40 mile type that cost $13,000 in 2009, will fall in price to roughly $6,700 in 2013, and $4,000 in 2015. The $4,000 cost would be equivalent to the purchase of that much gasoline.

Also, the batteries will last longer. A battery that lasted only four years in 2009, will last 14 years in 2015. This extends the battery cost over more years.

A battery that weighed 732.6 lbs in 2009 will weigh less in 2015: 488.4 lbs. In 2020 new technology will reduce the weight to about 121 lbs.

What this article is telling us is we will have to wait until 2015 to see any electric technology that can compete with carbon technology.