The Consequences of a 'Conceptual Withdrawal' in Afghanistan

Der Spiegel ^ | July 30th 2010 | Andrew Small

[Cardhu]

After the WikiLeaks publication of classified military documents, the pressure on Western countries to withdraw from Afghanistan has become even greater. But unrealistic transition deadlines have damaging repercussions, argues Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund.

"We have moved from a narrative, which lasted for years, that everything was fine when it wasn't, to a narrative that everything is going wrong when it isn't."

This lament from a former Western official, who, like others quoted in this piece, did not speak for attribution, summed up the frustrations of many in Kabul about the growing disconnect between the political timetables inside and outside the country. The concern is not only that the various transition deadlines are unrealistic, but that their very existence is creating counterproductive pressures that will make them even harder to achieve.

After last weekend's WikiLeaks publication of more than 90,000 classified military documents that paint a bleak picture of the war at the grassroots level, it has become even more difficult to argue that there is indeed any good news coming out of Afghanistan. But the one thing about last week's Kabul Conference on which everyone agrees is that the event happening at all was a tremendous success.

The largest gathering of foreign leaders to be held in Afghanistan in 30 years passed off without any serious security incidents. Forty foreign ministers flew in to sign off on plans that will channel at least 50 percent of development aid through the government's core budget and transfer security responsibility to Afghan National Security Forces by the end of 2014. For Karzai, this constituted the most visible show of international endorsement since last year's controversial presidential elections. One senior Western diplomat -- a noted critic of the president -- described him as more confident, more engaged...

[Cardhu]

"These observers harbor few, if any, illusions about what the West can still achieve in Afghanistan; indeed, many of them have taken a consistently skeptical position toward the US administration's more ambitious goals. But there is a striking consensus across the opinion spectrum that the current cycle of implausible expectations, crashing disappointments, and ever-shortening deadlines are making even a more modest set of objectives increasingly difficult to achieve."

[Gene Eric]

>> it has become even more difficult to argue that there is indeed any good news coming out of Afghanistan.

Afghanistan, the alleged war of necessity, has not surprisingly become dislocated into a morass of political uncertainty.

I wonder what Petraeus is thinking.

[lentulusgracchus]

I wonder what Petraeus is thinking.

I think he's probably thinking that McChrystal bailed.

And that he's going to end up the patsy for a secret-Moslem Benedict Arnold in the White House.

[silverleaf]

He’s probably preoccuopied with keeping as many of our troops safe and alive as he can under this ridiculous administration’s strategic dithering and tactical meddling

[Gene Eric]

>> he’s going to end up the patsy

A deeply troubling possibility.

[Gene Eric]

>> strategic dithering and tactical meddling

Regrettably not unbelievable.

Between Rolling Stone and WikiLeaks, the notion of sabotage within the ranks of the Left doesn’t wash.